Exhibit 11.14 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs help analyzing the data using a 2-month moving average. \[\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Toys Sold } & \text { Moving Average } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 174 & \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 189 & \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 168 & 181.5 \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 180 & 178.5 \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 165 & 174 . \square \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 183 & 172.5 \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 177 & 174 . \square \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 192 & 180 . \square \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 192 & 184.5 \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 183 & 192 . \square \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 195 & 187.5 \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 189 & 189 . [ \\ \hline 15 & 13 & & \\ \hline 16 & 14 & & \\ \hline 17 & 15 & & \\ \hline 18 & 16 & & \\ \hline \end{array}\] -Refer to Exhibit 11.14. What is the forecast for time periods 13-15?

The answer of Exhibit 11.14 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \[\begin{array}{l} \text { Rogression Stafisties }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Caffieients } \\ \hline \text { Interegt } & 114.136 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Variable } & \mathbf { 6 9 . 9 7 9 } \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array}\] $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9\\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the linear trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

A) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 3 B) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 1 C) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 1991 D) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 284 A) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 3 B) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 1 C) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 1991 D) = 114.1364 + 69.7902 * 284

Exhibit 11.7 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} & \mathrm{I} & \mathrm{J} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Predicted } & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Sales } & & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & & & & & \text { alpha } & 0.5 \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & & & & & \text { beta } & 0.5 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 287.0 & 14.0 & 209.0 & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 396.5 & 61.8 & 301.0 & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 471.6 & 68.4 & 458.3 & & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 408.5 & 2.7 & 540.1 & & & \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 508.6 & 51.4 & 411.2 & & & \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 641.0 & 91.9 & 560.0 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 747.9 & 99.4 & 732.9 & & & \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 720.2 & 35.8 & 847.3 & & & \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 834.0 & 74.8 & 756.0 & & & \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 1026.9 & 133.9 & 908.8 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & 31877.0 & &\\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.7. What formula should be entered in cell E4 to compute the base level when using Holt's method?

A) =$J$3*D4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3) B) =$J$4*D4+(1-$J$4)*(E3+F3) C) =$J$3*G4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3) D) =$J$4*(E4-E3)+(1-$J$4)*F3 A) =$J$3*D4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3) B) =$J$4*D4+(1-$J$4)*(E3+F3) C) =$J$3*G4+(1-$J$3)*(E3+F3) D) =$J$4*(E4-E3)+(1-$J$4)*F3

Exhibit 11.16 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { Exp Smoothing } & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Toys Sold } & \text { Prediction } & & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 174 & 174.00 & & \text { alpha } & 0.440 \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 189 & 174.00 & & & \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 168 & 180.60 & & & \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 180 & 175.06 & & & \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 165 & 177.23 & & & \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 183 & 171.85 & & & \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 177 & 176.76 & & & \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 192 & 176.86 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 192 & 183.52 & & & \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 183 & 187.25 & & & \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 195 & 185.38 & & & \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 189 & 189.61 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 91.18 & & & \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.16. What formulas should go in cells C3:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses an exponential smoothing forecasting model?

The answer of Exhibit 11.16 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \[\begin{array}{l} \text { Regression Statistics }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Cafficienfs } \\ \hline \text { Intercagt } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Varable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array}\] $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time } 2 & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What formula should be entered in cell F3 to compute the quadratic trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

A) = 263.4545 * C3 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577 B) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577 * C3 C) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C2 + 4.922577 * D2 D) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C3 + 4.922577 * D3 A) = 263.4545 * C3 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577 B) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * D3 + 4.922577 * C3 C) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C2 + 4.922577 * D2 D) = 263.4545 + 5.985514 * C3 + 4.922577 * D3

Exhibit 11.15 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month Weighted } & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Toys Sold } & \text { Moving Avg. } & & \text { Weights } & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 174 & & & \text { W1 } & 0.350 \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 189 & & & \text { w2 } & 0.650 \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 168 & 179.25 & & \text { sum } & 1.000 \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 180 & 181.65 & & & \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 165 & 172.20 & & & \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 183 & 174.75 & & & \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 177 & 171.30 & & & \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 192 & 180.90 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 192 & 182.25 & & & \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 183 & 192.00 & & & \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 195 & 188.85 & & & \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 189 & 187.20 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 62.20 & & & \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.15. What formulas should go in cells C5:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses a 2 month weighted moving average forecasting model?

The answer of Exhibit 11.15 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} & \mathrm{I} & \mathrm{J} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & & \text { Seasonal } & & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Forecast } & & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 368 & 462.50 & 0.796 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.332167 \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 168 & 462.50 & 0.363 & & & \text { beta } & 1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 530 & 462.50 & 1.146 & & & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 784 & 462.50 & 1.695 & & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 770 & 630.32 & 1.222 & 368.00 & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 354 & 744.66 & 0.475 & 228.96 & & & \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 1012 & 790.65 & 1.280 & 853.34 & & & \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 1244 & 771.79 & 1.612 & 1340.26 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 1326 & 875.98 & 1.514 & 942.82 & & & \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 986 & 1273.96 & 0.774 & 416.43 & & & \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 1624 & 1272.25 & 1.276 & 1630.62 & & & \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 2090 & 1280.35 & 1.632 & 2050.66 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & 85564.040 & & &\\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the remaining expected levels?

A) =$J$3*(D7/F3) + (1-$J$3)*E6 B) =$J$3*(D7/D6) + (1-$J$3)*E6 C) =$J$4*(D7/D3) + (1-$J$4)*E6 D) =$J$4*(D7/D6) + (1-$J$4)*E6 A) =$J$3*(D7/F3) + (1-$J$3)*E6 B) =$J$3*(D7/D6) + (1-$J$3)*E6 C) =$J$4*(D7/D3) + (1-$J$4)*E6 D) =$J$4*(D7/D6) + (1-$J$4)*E6

Exhibit 11.13 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. \[\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Toys Sold } & \text { Moving Avg } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 174 & \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 189 & \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 168 & \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 180 & \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 165 & 177.75 \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 183 & 175.50 \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 177 & 174.00 \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 192 & 176.25 \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 192 & 179.25 \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 183 & 186.00 \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 195 & 186.00 \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 189 & 190.50 \\ \hline 15 & & & \\ \hline 16 & & \mathbf { M S E } & 91.34 \\ \hline \end{array}\] -Refer to Exhibit 11.13. What formulas should go in cells C3:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses a 4 month moving average forecasting model?

The answer of Exhibit 11.13 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.1 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 4-Month } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Avg. } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 70 & \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 80 & \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 66 & \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 74 & \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 64 & \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.00 \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 70.00 \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.50 \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 73.50 \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 78.00 \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 78.00 \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 81.00 \\ \hline 15 & 13 & & \\ \hline 16 & 14 & & \\ \hline 17 & & & \\ \hline 18 & & \text { MSE } & 40.59 \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.1. What Excel function will compute the mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

A) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14) B) =SUMXMY2(B3:B14,C3:C14)/COUNT(C3:C14) C) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14) D) =SUMPRODUCT(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14) A) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14) B) =SUMXMY2(B3:B14,C3:C14)/COUNT(C3:C14) C) =SUMXMY2(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14) D) =SUMPRODUCT(B7:B14,C7:C14)/COUNT(C7:C14)

Exhibit 11.23 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use a quadratic trend model to forecast sales. $\begin{array}{|l|r|} \hline {\text { Regression Statistics }} \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 56.29 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 3.59 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 0.08 \\ \hline \end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & F \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time } 2 & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 55.2 & 60.0 \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 60.0 & 63.8 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 86.4 & 67.8 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 74.4 & 71.9 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 62.4 & 76.2 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 67.2 & 80.7 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 115.2 & 85.3 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 86.4 & 90.1 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 74.4 & 95.1 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 100.8 & 100.2 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 127.2 & 105.5 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 103.2 & 110.9 \\ \hline 15 & & & 13 & 169 & & 116.5\\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.23. What is the forecast for time period 13?

The answer of Exhibit 11.23 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.2 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month Weighted } & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Moving Avg. } & & \text { Weights } & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 70 & & & \text { W1 } & 0.244 \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 80 & & & \text { W2 } & 0.756 \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 66 & & & \text { sum } & 1.000 \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 76.59 & & & \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 67.95 & & & \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 71.56 & & & \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 66.93 & & & \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 75.02 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 74.44 & & & \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 82.00 & & & \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 80.54 & & & \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 77.95 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & \text { MSE } & 26.72 & & & \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What is the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3 using the weight in the spreadsheet? Associate weight w1 with sales in time period 2 and w2 with sales in time period 1.

A) 72.44 B) 75.00 C) 76.59 D) 77.56 A) 72.44 B) 75.00 C) 76.59 D) 77.56

Exhibit 11.3 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { Exp Smoothing } & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Prediction } & & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 70 & 70.00 & & \text { alpha } & 0.346 \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 80 & 70.00 & & & \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 66 & 73.46 & & & \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 70.88 & & & \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 71.96 & & & \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 69.20 & & & \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 71.56 & & & \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.71 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 75.27 & & & \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 77.60 & & & \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 77.05 & & & \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 79.45 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & \mathrm{MSE} & 39.79 & & & \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 13?

A) 79.20 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 79.30 B) 79.60 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 79.70 C) 80.10 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 80.20 D) 81.95 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 82.05 A) 79.20 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 79.30 B) 79.60 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 79.70 C) 80.10 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 80.20 D) 81.95 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 forecast < 82.05

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & & & & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & & & & \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & & & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & & & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 413.5 & 20.5 & 0.567 & 217.9 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 457.2 & 27.4 & 1.124 & 478.2 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 484.9 & 27.5 & 1.486 & 719.7 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 579.5 & 47.6 & 0.942 & 461.1 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 710.9 & 72.8 & 0.594 & 355.5 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 789.2 & 74.4 & 1.127 & 881.0 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 845.0 & 68.8 & 1.473 & 1283.0 \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & \text { MSE } & 28,474.73 \\ \hline 17 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.2 & & & & \\ \hline 18 & & & \text { beta } & 0.3 & & & & \\ \hline 19 & & & \text { gamma } & 0.1 & & & & \\ \hline 20 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

A) 795 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 800 B) 860 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 865 C) 910 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 915 D) 1280 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1285 A) 795 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 800 B) 860 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 865 C) 910 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 915 D) 1280 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1285

Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

Exhibit 11.14 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs help analyzing the data using a 2-month moving average. A B C 1 Number of 2-Month 2 Time Period Toys Sold Moving Average 3 1 174 4 2 189 5 3 168 181.5 6 4 180 178.5 7 5 165 174.\square 8 6 183 172.5 9 7 177 174.\square 10 8 192 180.\square 11 9 192 184.5 12 10 183 192.\square 13 11 195 187.5 14 12 189 189.[ 15 13 16 14 17 15 18 16 -Refer to Exhibit 11.14. What is the forecast for time periods 13-15?

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Question 61

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Rogression Stafisties Caffieients Interegt 114.136 Variable A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 254.1 5 3 3 365 324.1 6 4 4 492 394.1 7 2 1 5 485 464.0 8 2 6 277 534.0 9 3 7 606 604.0 10 4 8 722 674.0 11 3 1 9 763 743.9 12 2 10 593 813.9 13 3 11 912 883.9 14 4 12 1145 953.9 -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the linear trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

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Question 62

Exhibit 11.7 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. A B 1 Time Actual Base Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Sales 3 1 1 1 284 alpha 0.5 4 2 2 184 beta 0.5 5 3 3 365 287.0 14.0 209.0 6 4 4 492 396.5 61.8 301.0 7 2 1 5 485 471.6 68.4 458.3 8 2 6 277 408.5 2.7 540.1 9 3 7 606 508.6 51.4 411.2 10 4 8 722 641.0 91.9 560.0 11 3 1 9 763 747.9 99.4 732.9 12 2 10 593 720.2 35.8 847.3 13 3 11 912 834.0 74.8 756.0 14 4 12 1145 1026.9 133.9 908.8 15 16 31877.0 -Refer to Exhibit 11.7. What formula should be entered in cell E4 to compute the base level when using Holt's method?

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Question 63

A time series which has a significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

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Question 64

Exhibit 11.16 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. A B C D E F 1 Number of Exp Smoothing 2 Time Period Toys Sold Prediction 3 1 174 174.00 alpha 0.440 4 2 189 174.00 5 3 168 180.60 6 4 180 175.06 7 5 165 177.23 8 6 183 171.85 9 7 177 176.76 10 8 192 176.86 11 9 192 183.52 12 10 183 187.25 13 11 195 185.38 14 12 189 189.61 15 16 MSE 91.18 -Refer to Exhibit 11.16. What formulas should go in cells C3:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses an exponential smoothing forecasting model?

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Question 65

Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Cafficienfs Intercagt 263.4545 Varable 1 5.985514 Variable 2 4.922577 A B C 1 Time Actual Quadratic 2 Year Qtr Period Time 2 Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 4 184 295.1 5 3 3 9 365 325.7 6 4 4 16 492 366.2 7 2 1 5 25 485 416.4 8 2 6 36 277 476.6 9 3 7 49 606 546.6 10 4 8 64 722 626.4 11 3 1 9 81 763 716.1 12 2 10 100 593 815.6 13 3 11 121 912 924.9 14 4 12 144 1145 1044.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What formula should be entered in cell F3 to compute the quadratic trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

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Question 66

Exhibit 11.15 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. A B C D E F 1 Number of 2-Month Weighted 2 Time Period Toys Sold Moving Avg. Weights 3 1 174 W1 0.350 4 2 189 w2 0.650 5 3 168 179.25 sum 1.000 6 4 180 181.65 7 5 165 172.20 8 6 183 174.75 9 7 177 171.30 10 8 192 180.90 11 9 192 182.25 12 10 183 192.00 13 11 195 188.85 14 12 189 187.20 15 16 MSE 62.20 -Refer to Exhibit 11.15. What formulas should go in cells C5:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses a 2 month weighted moving average forecasting model?

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Question 67

Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. A 1 Time Actual Seasonal 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Factor Forecast 3 1 1 1 368 462.50 0.796 alpha 0.332167 4 2 2 168 462.50 0.363 beta 1 5 3 3 530 462.50 1.146 6 4 4 784 462.50 1.695 7 2 1 5 770 630.32 1.222 368.00 8 2 6 354 744.66 0.475 228.96 9 3 7 1012 790.65 1.280 853.34 10 4 8 1244 771.79 1.612 1340.26 11 3 1 9 1326 875.98 1.514 942.82 12 2 10 986 1273.96 0.774 416.43 13 3 11 1624 1272.25 1.276 1630.62 14 4 12 2090 1280.35 1.632 2050.66 15 16 85564.040 -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the remaining expected levels?

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Question 68

Exhibit 11.22 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use regression and a linear trend model. Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.895 R Square 0.791 Adjusted R Square 0.773 Standard Error 269.406 Observations 12 Coefficients Intercept 28.273 X Variable 1 139.958 A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 368 168.2 4 2 2 168 308.2 5 3 3 530 448.1 6 4 4 784 588.1 7 2 1 5 770 728.1 8 2 6 354 868.0 9 3 7 1012 1008.0 10 4 8 1244 1147.9 11 3 1 9 1326 1287.9 12 2 10 986 1427.9 13 3 11 1624 1567.8 14 4 12 2090 1707.8 -Refer to Exhibit 11.22. Interpret the R² value for your model.

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Question 69

Exhibit 11.13 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. A B C 1 Number of 4-Month 2 Time Period Toys Sold Moving Avg 3 1 174 4 2 189 5 3 168 6 4 180 7 5 165 177.75 8 6 183 175.50 9 7 177 174.00 10 8 192 176.25 11 9 192 179.25 12 10 183 186.00 13 11 195 186.00 14 12 189 190.50 15 16 91.34 -Refer to Exhibit 11.13. What formulas should go in cells C3:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses a 4 month moving average forecasting model?

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Question 70

Exhibit 11.1 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. A B C 1 Number of 4-Month 2 Time Period Cars Sold Moving Avg. 3 1 70 4 2 80 5 3 66 6 4 74 7 5 64 8 6 76 71.00 9 7 72 70.00 10 8 82 71.50 11 9 82 73.50 12 10 76 78.00 13 11 84 78.00 14 12 80 81.00 15 13 16 14 17 18 MSE 40.59 -Refer to Exhibit 11.1. What Excel function will compute the mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

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Question 71

The determination of the MSE-minimizing value of the w_i is a non-linear optimization problem because

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Question 72

Exhibit 11.25 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use a seasonal regression model to forecast sales. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 60.42 X Variable 1 1.91 X Variable 2 0.16 X Variable 3 -11.85 X Variable 4 -3.57 X Variable 5 25.98 $Exhibit 11.25 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use a seasonal regression model to forecast sales. \begin{array}{|l|r|} \hline {\text { Regression Statistics }} \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 60.42 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 1.91 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 0.16 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 3 } & -11.85 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 4 } & -3.57 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 5 } & 25.98 \\ \hline \end{array} -Refer to Exhibit 11.25. What is the forecast for time period 13?$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.25. What is the forecast for time period 13?

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Question 73

Which of the following describes a multiplicative seasonal effect in times series data?

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Question 74

Why might a forecaster calculate MSE values on just the most recent data in the time-series data set?

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Question 75

Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Ragression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577 $Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \begin{array}{l} \text { Ragression Statistics }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array} -Refer to Exhibit 11.11. What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.11. What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

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Question 76

Exhibit 11.23 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use a quadratic trend model to forecast sales. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 56.29 X Variable 1 3.59 X Variable 2 0.08 A B C D E F 1 Time Actual Quadratic 2 Year Qtr Period Time 2 Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 1 55.2 60.0 4 2 2 4 60.0 63.8 5 3 3 9 86.4 67.8 6 4 4 16 74.4 71.9 7 2 1 5 25 62.4 76.2 8 2 6 36 67.2 80.7 9 3 7 49 115.2 85.3 10 4 8 64 86.4 90.1 11 3 1 9 81 74.4 95.1 12 2 10 100 100.8 100.2 13 3 11 121 127.2 105.5 14 4 12 144 103.2 110.9 15 13 169 116.5 -Refer to Exhibit 11.23. What is the forecast for time period 13?

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Question 77

Exhibit 11.2 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. A B C D E F 1 Number of 2-Month Weighted 2 Time Period Cars Sold Moving Avg. Weights 3 1 70 W1 0.244 4 2 80 W2 0.756 5 3 66 sum 1.000 6 4 74 76.59 7 5 64 67.95 8 6 76 71.56 9 7 72 66.93 10 8 82 75.02 11 9 82 74.44 12 10 76 82.00 13 11 84 80.54 14 12 80 77.95 15 16 MSE 26.72 -Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What is the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3 using the weight in the spreadsheet? Associate weight w₁ with sales in time period 2 and w₂ with sales in time period 1.

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Question 78

Exhibit 11.3 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. A B C D E F 1 Number of Exp Smoothing 2 Time Period Cars Sold Prediction 3 1 70 70.00 alpha 0.346 4 2 80 70.00 5 3 66 73.46 6 4 74 70.88 7 5 64 71.96 8 6 76 69.20 9 7 72 71.56 10 8 82 71.71 11 9 82 75.27 12 10 76 77.60 13 11 84 77.05 14 12 80 79.45 15 16 39.79 -Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 13?

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Question 79

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 5 3 3 365 6 4 4 492 7 2 1 5 485 8 2 6 277 413.5 20.5 0.567 217.9 9 3 7 606 457.2 27.4 1.124 478.2 10 4 8 722 484.9 27.5 1.486 719.7 11 3 1 9 763 579.5 47.6 0.942 461.1 12 2 10 593 710.9 72.8 0.594 355.5 13 3 11 912 789.2 74.4 1.127 881.0 14 4 12 1145 845.0 68.8 1.473 1283.0 15 16 MSE 28,474.73 17 alpha 0.2 18 beta 0.3 19 gamma 0.1 20 -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

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Question 80

A time series which has a significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

The determination of the MSE-minimizing value of the w_i is a non-linear optimization problem because

Which of the following describes a multiplicative seasonal effect in times series data?

Why might a forecaster calculate MSE values on just the most recent data in the time-series data set?

Introduction to Modeling and Decision Analysis

Introduction to Optimization and Linear Programming

Modeling and Solving Lp Problems in a Spreadsheet

Sensitivity Analysis and the Simplex Method

Network Modeling

Integer Linear Programming

Goal Programming and Multiple Objective Optimization

Nonlinear Programming and Evolutionary Optimization

Regression Analysis

Discriminant Analysis

Introduction to Simulation Using Risk Solver Platform

Queuing Theory

Decision Analysis

Project Management Online

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Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

A time series which has a significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

The determination of the MSE-minimizing value of the wi is a non-linear optimization problem because

Which of the following describes a multiplicative seasonal effect in times series data?

Why might a forecaster calculate MSE values on just the most recent data in the time-series data set?

Introduction to Modeling and Decision Analysis

Introduction to Optimization and Linear Programming

Modeling and Solving Lp Problems in a Spreadsheet

Sensitivity Analysis and the Simplex Method

Network Modeling

Integer Linear Programming

Goal Programming and Multiple Objective Optimization

Nonlinear Programming and Evolutionary Optimization

Regression Analysis

Discriminant Analysis

Introduction to Simulation Using Risk Solver Platform

Queuing Theory

Decision Analysis

Project Management Online

Filters

The determination of the MSE-minimizing value of the w_i is a non-linear optimization problem because