Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} & \mathrm{I} & \mathrm{J} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & & \text { Seasonal } & & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Forecast } & & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 368 & 462.50 & 0.796 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.332167 \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 168 & 462.50 & 0.363 & & & \text { beta } & 1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 530 & 462.50 & 1.146 & & & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 784 & 462.50 & 1.695 & & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 770 & 630.32 & 1.222 & 368.00 & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 354 & 744.66 & 0.475 & 228.96 & & & \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 1012 & 790.65 & 1.280 & 853.34 & & & \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 1244 & 771.79 & 1.612 & 1340.26 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 1326 & 875.98 & 1.514 & 942.82 & & & \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 986 & 1273.96 & 0.774 & 416.43 & & & \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 1624 & 1272.25 & 1.276 & 1630.62 & & & \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 2090 & 1280.35 & 1.632 & 2050.66 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & 85564.040 & & &\\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the multiplicative seasonal effects method?

A) =AVERAGE($E$3:$E$6) B) =AVERAGE(E3, E7, E11) C) =AVERAGE($D$3:$D$6) D) =AVERAGE(D3, D7, D11) A) =AVERAGE($E$3:$E$6) B) =AVERAGE(E3, E7, E11) C) =AVERAGE($D$3:$D$6) D) =AVERAGE(D3, D7, D11)

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \[\begin{array}{l} \text { Rogression Stafisties }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Caffieients } \\ \hline \text { Interegt } & 114.136 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Variable } & \mathbf { 6 9 . 9 7 9 } \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array}\] $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9\\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) B3:B14 B) C3:C14 C) D3:D14 D) B3:D14 A) B3:B14 B) C3:C14 C) D3:D14 D) B3:D14

Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 55.2 & & & 0.800 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 60.0 & & & 0.870 & \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 86.4 & & & 1.252 & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 74.4 & 69.0 & 0.0 & 1.078 & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 62.4 & 70.8 & 0.5 & 0.808 & 55.2 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 67.2 & 72.5 & 0.9 & 0.875 & 62.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 115.2 & 77.1 & 2.0 & 1.276 & 91.9 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 86.4 & 79.3 & 2.1 & 1.079 & 85.3 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 74.4 & 83.5 & 2.7 & 0.816 & 65.8 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100.8 & 92.0 & 4.4 & 0.897 & 75.5 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 127.2 & 97.1 & 4.6 & 1.280 & 123.1 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 103.2 & 100.5 & 4.3 & 1.074 & 109.8 \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & \text { MSE } & 174.43 \\ \hline 17 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.2 & & & & \\ \hline 18 & & & \text { beta } & 0.3 & & & & \\ \hline 19 & & & \text { gamma } & 0.1 & & & & \\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. What is the forecast for time period 13?

The answer of Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & & & & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & & & & \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & & & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & & & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 413.5 & 20.5 & 0.567 & 217.9 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 457.2 & 27.4 & 1.124 & 478.2 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 484.9 & 27.5 & 1.486 & 719.7 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 579.5 & 47.6 & 0.942 & 461.1 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 710.9 & 72.8 & 0.594 & 355.5 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 789.2 & 74.4 & 1.127 & 881.0 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 845.0 & 68.8 & 1.473 & 1283.0 \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & \text { MSE } & 28,474.73 \\ \hline 17 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.2 & & & & \\ \hline 18 & & & \text { beta } & 0.3 & & & & \\ \hline 19 & & & \text { gamma } & 0.1 & & & & \\ \hline 20 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell G3 to compute the seasonal factor for year 1 Quarter 1?

A) =D3/AVERAGE($D$3:$D$6) B) =D3/AVERAGE($D$3:$D$14) C) =D3/SUM($D$3:$D$6) D) =D3/COUNTIF($D$3:$D$6) A) =D3/AVERAGE($D$3:$D$6) B) =D3/AVERAGE($D$3:$D$14) C) =D3/SUM($D$3:$D$6) D) =D3/COUNTIF($D$3:$D$6)

Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \[\begin{array}{l} \text { Regression Statistics }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Cafficienfs } \\ \hline \text { Intercagt } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Varable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array}\] $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time } 2 & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

A) 1170$\le$ predicted sales < 1175 B) 1310 $\le$ predicted sales < 1315 C) 1460 $\le$ predicted sales < 1465 D) 1615$\le$predicted sales < 1620 A) 1170$\le$ predicted sales < 1175 B) 1310 $\le$ predicted sales < 1315 C) 1460 $\le$ predicted sales < 1465 D) 1615$\le$predicted sales < 1620

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & & & & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & & & & \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & & & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & & & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 413.5 & 20.5 & 0.567 & 217.9 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 457.2 & 27.4 & 1.124 & 478.2 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 484.9 & 27.5 & 1.486 & 719.7 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 579.5 & 47.6 & 0.942 & 461.1 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 710.9 & 72.8 & 0.594 & 355.5 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 789.2 & 74.4 & 1.127 & 881.0 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 845.0 & 68.8 & 1.473 & 1283.0 \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & \text { MSE } & 28,474.73 \\ \hline 17 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.2 & & & & \\ \hline 18 & & & \text { beta } & 0.3 & & & & \\ \hline 19 & & & \text { gamma } & 0.1 & & & & \\ \hline 20 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the base level value for year 2 Quarter 1?

A) =$D$17+(1-$D$17)*(E6+F6) B) =$D$17*D7/G3+(1-$D$17)*(E6+F6) C) =$D$17*D7/G3+(1-$D$17) D) =$D$17*D7/G3+($D$17)*(E6+F6) A) =$D$17+(1-$D$17)*(E6+F6) B) =$D$17*D7/G3+(1-$D$17)*(E6+F6) C) =$D$17*D7/G3+(1-$D$17) D) =$D$17*D7/G3+($D$17)*(E6+F6)

Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 55.2 & & & 0.800 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 60.0 & & & 0.870 & \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 86.4 & & & 1.252 & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 74.4 & 69.0 & 0.0 & 1.078 & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 62.4 & 70.8 & 0.5 & 0.808 & 55.2 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 67.2 & 72.5 & 0.9 & 0.875 & 62.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 115.2 & 77.1 & 2.0 & 1.276 & 91.9 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 86.4 & 79.3 & 2.1 & 1.079 & 85.3 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 74.4 & 83.5 & 2.7 & 0.816 & 65.8 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100.8 & 92.0 & 4.4 & 0.897 & 75.5 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 127.2 & 97.1 & 4.6 & 1.280 & 123.1 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 103.2 & 100.5 & 4.3 & 1.074 & 109.8 \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & \text { MSE } & 174.43 \\ \hline 17 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.2 & & & & \\ \hline 18 & & & \text { beta } & 0.3 & & & & \\ \hline 19 & & & \text { gamma } & 0.1 & & & & \\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. What formulas should go in cells E3:H16?

The answer of Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \[\begin{array}{l} \text { Rogression Stafisties }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Caffieients } \\ \hline \text { Interegt } & 114.136 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Variable } & \mathbf { 6 9 . 9 7 9 } \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array}\] $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9\\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

A) 1020 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1025 B) 1090 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1095 C) 1160 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1165 D) 1230 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1235 A) 1020 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1025 B) 1090 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1095 C) 1160 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1165 D) 1230 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1235

Exhibit 11.22 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use regression and a linear trend model. $\begin{array}{|l|r|} \hline {\text { Regression Statistics }} \\ \hline \text { Multiple R } & 0.895 \\ \hline \text { R Square } & 0.791 \\ \hline \text { Adjusted R Square } & 0.773 \\ \hline \text { Standard Error } & 269.406 \\ \hline \text { Observations } & 12 \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 28.273 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 139.958 \\ \hline \end{array}$ $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 368 & 168.2 \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 168 & 308.2 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 530 & 448.1 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 784 & 588.1 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 770 & 728.1 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 354 & 868.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 1012 & 1008.0 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 1244 & 1147.9 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 1326 & 1287.9 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 986 & 1427.9 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 1624 & 1567.8 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 2090 & 1707.8\\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.22. Based on the regression output, what formulas should go in cells E3:E14?

The answer of Exhibit 11.22 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \[\begin{array}{l} \text { Regression Statistics }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Cafficienfs } \\ \hline \text { Intercagt } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Varable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array}\] $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & & \text { Actual } & \text { Quadratic } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Time } 2 & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 4 & 184 & 295.1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 9 & 365 & 325.7 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 16 & 492 & 366.2 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 25 & 485 & 416.4 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 36 & 277 & 476.6 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 49 & 606 & 546.6 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 64 & 722 & 626.4 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 81 & 763 & 716.1 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100 & 593 & 815.6 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 121 & 912 & 924.9 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 144 & 1145 & 1044.1 \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) B3:B14 B) C3:C14 C) D3:D14 D) E3:E14 A) B3:B14 B) C3:C14 C) D3:D14 D) E3:E14

Exhibit 11.3 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } & \text { F } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { Exp Smoothing } & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Cars Sold } & \text { Prediction } & & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 70 & 70.00 & & \text { alpha } & 0.346 \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 80 & 70.00 & & & \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 66 & 73.46 & & & \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 74 & 70.88 & & & \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 64 & 71.96 & & & \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 76 & 69.20 & & & \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 72 & 71.56 & & & \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 82 & 71.71 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 82 & 75.27 & & & \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 76 & 77.60 & & & \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 84 & 77.05 & & & \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 80 & 79.45 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & \mathrm{MSE} & 39.79 & & & \\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What formula should be entered in cell C4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2?

A) =C3-$F$3*(B3-C3) B) =C3+$F$3*(C3-B3) C) =B3+$F$3*(B3-C3) D) =C3+$F$3*(B3-C3) A) =C3-$F$3*(B3-C3) B) =C3+$F$3*(C3-B3) C) =B3+$F$3*(B3-C3) D) =C3+$F$3*(B3-C3)

Exhibit 11.14 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs help analyzing the data using a 2-month moving average. \[\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | } \hline & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\ \hline 1 & & \text { Number of } & \text { 2-Month } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Time Period } & \text { Toys Sold } & \text { Moving Average } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 174 & \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 189 & \\ \hline 5 & 3 & 168 & 181.5 \\ \hline 6 & 4 & 180 & 178.5 \\ \hline 7 & 5 & 165 & 174 . \square \\ \hline 8 & 6 & 183 & 172.5 \\ \hline 9 & 7 & 177 & 174 . \square \\ \hline 10 & 8 & 192 & 180 . \square \\ \hline 11 & 9 & 192 & 184.5 \\ \hline 12 & 10 & 183 & 192 . \square \\ \hline 13 & 11 & 195 & 187.5 \\ \hline 14 & 12 & 189 & 189 . [ \\ \hline 15 & 13 & & \\ \hline 16 & 14 & & \\ \hline 17 & 15 & & \\ \hline 18 & 16 & & \\ \hline \end{array}\] -Refer to Exhibit 11.14. What formulas should go into cells B15:B18 and cells C15:C18 of the spreadsheet if a 2-month moving average forecasting model is used?

The answer of Exhibit 11.14 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.20 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using Holt's method. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} & \mathrm{I} & \mathrm{J} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Predicted } & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Sales } & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 368 & 368.0 & 0.0 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.4 \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 168 & 288.0 & -48.0 & 368.0 & & \text { beta } & 0.6 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 530 & 356.0 & 21.6 & 240.0 & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 784 & 540.2 & 119.1 & 377.6 & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 770 & 703.6 & 145.7 & 659.3 & & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 354 & 651.2 & 26.8 & 849.3 & & & \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 1012 & 811.6 & 107.0 & 678.0 & & & \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 1244 & 1048.8 & 185.1 & 918.6 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 1326 & 1270.7 & 207.2 & 1233.9 & & & \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 986 & 1281.2 & 89.1 & 1477.9 & & & \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 1624 & 1471.8 & 150.0 & 1370.3 & & & \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 2090 & 1809.1 & 262.4 & 1621.8 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & \text { MSE } & 30469.5 & &\\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.20. What formulas should go in cells E3:G16 of the spreadsheet if Holt's method is used to forecast sales?

The answer of Exhibit 11.20 The following questions use the data...

Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} & \mathrm{I} & \mathrm{J} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & & \text { Seasonal } & & & & \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Factor } & \text { Forecast } & & & \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 368 & 462.50 & 0.796 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.332167 \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 168 & 462.50 & 0.363 & & & \text { beta } & 1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 530 & 462.50 & 1.146 & & & & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 784 & 462.50 & 1.695 & & & & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 770 & 630.32 & 1.222 & 368.00 & & \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 354 & 744.66 & 0.475 & 228.96 & & & \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 1012 & 790.65 & 1.280 & 853.34 & & & \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 1244 & 771.79 & 1.612 & 1340.26 & & & \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 1326 & 875.98 & 1.514 & 942.82 & & & \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 986 & 1273.96 & 0.774 & 416.43 & & & \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 1624 & 1272.25 & 1.276 & 1630.62 & & & \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 2090 & 1280.35 & 1.632 & 2050.66 & & & \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & 85564.040 & & &\\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

A) 1259 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1260 B) 1938 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1939 C) 2090 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 2091 D) 2187 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 2188 A) 1259 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1260 B) 1938 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 1939 C) 2090 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 2091 D) 2187 F1F1F1S1?F1F1F10 predicted sales < 2188

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. \[\begin{array}{l} \text { Rogression Stafisties }\\ \begin{array} { | l | r | } \hline & \text { Caffieients } \\ \hline \text { Interegt } & 114.136 \\ \hline \mathrm { X } \text { Variable } & \mathbf { 6 9 . 9 7 9 } \\ \hline \end{array} \end{array}\] $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } & \text { D } & \text { E } \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Linear } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Trend } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 284 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 184 & 254.1 \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 365 & 324.1 \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 492 & 394.1 \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 485 & 464.0 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 277 & 534.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 606 & 604.0 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 722 & 674.0 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 763 & 743.9 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 593 & 813.9 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 912 & 883.9 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 1145 & 953.9\\ \hline \end{array}$ -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

A) B3:B14 B) C3:C14 C) D3:D14 D) B3:D14 A) B3:B14 B) C3:C14 C) D3:D14 D) B3:D14

Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. \(\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline& \mathrm{A} & \mathrm{B} & \mathrm{C} & \mathrm{D} & \mathrm{E} & \mathrm{F} & \mathrm{G} & \mathrm{H} \\ \hline 1 & & & \text { Time } & \text { Actual } & \text { Base } & & \text { Seasonal } & \text { Predicted } \\ \hline 2 & \text { Year } & \text { Qtr } & \text { Period } & \text { Sales } & \text { Level } & \text { Trend } & \text { Factor } & \text { Sales } \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1 & 1 & 55.2 & & & 0.800 & \\ \hline 4 & & 2 & 2 & 60.0 & & & 0.870 & \\ \hline 5 & & 3 & 3 & 86.4 & & & 1.252 & \\ \hline 6 & & 4 & 4 & 74.4 & 69.0 & 0.0 & 1.078 & \\ \hline 7 & 2 & 1 & 5 & 62.4 & 70.8 & 0.5 & 0.808 & 55.2 \\ \hline 8 & & 2 & 6 & 67.2 & 72.5 & 0.9 & 0.875 & 62.0 \\ \hline 9 & & 3 & 7 & 115.2 & 77.1 & 2.0 & 1.276 & 91.9 \\ \hline 10 & & 4 & 8 & 86.4 & 79.3 & 2.1 & 1.079 & 85.3 \\ \hline 11 & 3 & 1 & 9 & 74.4 & 83.5 & 2.7 & 0.816 & 65.8 \\ \hline 12 & & 2 & 10 & 100.8 & 92.0 & 4.4 & 0.897 & 75.5 \\ \hline 13 & & 3 & 11 & 127.2 & 97.1 & 4.6 & 1.280 & 123.1 \\ \hline 14 & & 4 & 12 & 103.2 & 100.5 & 4.3 & 1.074 & 109.8 \\ \hline 15 & & & & & & & & \\ \hline 16 & & & & & & & \text { MSE } & 174.43 \\ \hline 17 & & & \text { alpha } & 0.2 & & & & \\ \hline 18 & & & \text { beta } & 0.3 & & & & \\ \hline 19 & & & \text { gamma } & 0.1 & & & & \\ \hline \end{array}\) -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. The store wishes to use Solver to find the optimal values for cell E6. Provide the following Risk Solver Platform (RSP) settings. Objective Cell: Variables Cells: Constraints Cells:

The answer of Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data...

Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4. -Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What are predicted sales for time period 16 using the data in the spreadsheet?

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Question 81

Exhibit 11.4 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

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Question 82

Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. A 1 Time Actual Seasonal 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Factor Forecast 3 1 1 1 368 462.50 0.796 alpha 0.332167 4 2 2 168 462.50 0.363 beta 1 5 3 3 530 462.50 1.146 6 4 4 784 462.50 1.695 7 2 1 5 770 630.32 1.222 368.00 8 2 6 354 744.66 0.475 228.96 9 3 7 1012 790.65 1.280 853.34 10 4 8 1244 771.79 1.612 1340.26 11 3 1 9 1326 875.98 1.514 942.82 12 2 10 986 1273.96 0.774 416.43 13 3 11 1624 1272.25 1.276 1630.62 14 4 12 2090 1280.35 1.632 2050.66 15 16 85564.040 -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the multiplicative seasonal effects method?

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Question 83

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Rogression Stafisties Caffieients Interegt 114.136 Variable A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 254.1 5 3 3 365 324.1 6 4 4 492 394.1 7 2 1 5 485 464.0 8 2 6 277 534.0 9 3 7 606 604.0 10 4 8 722 674.0 11 3 1 9 763 743.9 12 2 10 593 813.9 13 3 11 912 883.9 14 4 12 1145 953.9 -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

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Question 84

Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 55.2 0.800 4 2 2 60.0 0.870 5 3 3 86.4 1.252 6 4 4 74.4 69.0 0.0 1.078 7 2 1 5 62.4 70.8 0.5 0.808 55.2 8 2 6 67.2 72.5 0.9 0.875 62.0 9 3 7 115.2 77.1 2.0 1.276 91.9 10 4 8 86.4 79.3 2.1 1.079 85.3 11 3 1 9 74.4 83.5 2.7 0.816 65.8 12 2 10 100.8 92.0 4.4 0.897 75.5 13 3 11 127.2 97.1 4.6 1.280 123.1 14 4 12 103.2 100.5 4.3 1.074 109.8 15 16 MSE 174.43 17 alpha 0.2 18 beta 0.3 19 gamma 0.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. What is the forecast for time period 13?

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Question 85

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 5 3 3 365 6 4 4 492 7 2 1 5 485 8 2 6 277 413.5 20.5 0.567 217.9 9 3 7 606 457.2 27.4 1.124 478.2 10 4 8 722 484.9 27.5 1.486 719.7 11 3 1 9 763 579.5 47.6 0.942 461.1 12 2 10 593 710.9 72.8 0.594 355.5 13 3 11 912 789.2 74.4 1.127 881.0 14 4 12 1145 845.0 68.8 1.473 1283.0 15 16 MSE 28,474.73 17 alpha 0.2 18 beta 0.3 19 gamma 0.1 20 -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell G3 to compute the seasonal factor for year 1 Quarter 1?

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Question 86

Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Cafficienfs Intercagt 263.4545 Varable 1 5.985514 Variable 2 4.922577 A B C 1 Time Actual Quadratic 2 Year Qtr Period Time 2 Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 4 184 295.1 5 3 3 9 365 325.7 6 4 4 16 492 366.2 7 2 1 5 25 485 416.4 8 2 6 36 277 476.6 9 3 7 49 606 546.6 10 4 8 64 722 626.4 11 3 1 9 81 763 716.1 12 2 10 100 593 815.6 13 3 11 121 912 924.9 14 4 12 144 1145 1044.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

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Question 87

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 5 3 3 365 6 4 4 492 7 2 1 5 485 8 2 6 277 413.5 20.5 0.567 217.9 9 3 7 606 457.2 27.4 1.124 478.2 10 4 8 722 484.9 27.5 1.486 719.7 11 3 1 9 763 579.5 47.6 0.942 461.1 12 2 10 593 710.9 72.8 0.594 355.5 13 3 11 912 789.2 74.4 1.127 881.0 14 4 12 1145 845.0 68.8 1.473 1283.0 15 16 MSE 28,474.73 17 alpha 0.2 18 beta 0.3 19 gamma 0.1 20 -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the base level value for year 2 Quarter 1?

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Question 88

Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 55.2 0.800 4 2 2 60.0 0.870 5 3 3 86.4 1.252 6 4 4 74.4 69.0 0.0 1.078 7 2 1 5 62.4 70.8 0.5 0.808 55.2 8 2 6 67.2 72.5 0.9 0.875 62.0 9 3 7 115.2 77.1 2.0 1.276 91.9 10 4 8 86.4 79.3 2.1 1.079 85.3 11 3 1 9 74.4 83.5 2.7 0.816 65.8 12 2 10 100.8 92.0 4.4 0.897 75.5 13 3 11 127.2 97.1 4.6 1.280 123.1 14 4 12 103.2 100.5 4.3 1.074 109.8 15 16 MSE 174.43 17 alpha 0.2 18 beta 0.3 19 gamma 0.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. What formulas should go in cells E3:H16?

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Question 89

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Rogression Stafisties Caffieients Interegt 114.136 Variable A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 254.1 5 3 3 365 324.1 6 4 4 492 394.1 7 2 1 5 485 464.0 8 2 6 277 534.0 9 3 7 606 604.0 10 4 8 722 674.0 11 3 1 9 763 743.9 12 2 10 593 813.9 13 3 11 912 883.9 14 4 12 1145 953.9 -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

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Question 90

Exhibit 11.22 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use regression and a linear trend model. Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.895 R Square 0.791 Adjusted R Square 0.773 Standard Error 269.406 Observations 12 Coefficients Intercept 28.273 X Variable 1 139.958 A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 368 168.2 4 2 2 168 308.2 5 3 3 530 448.1 6 4 4 784 588.1 7 2 1 5 770 728.1 8 2 6 354 868.0 9 3 7 1012 1008.0 10 4 8 1244 1147.9 11 3 1 9 1326 1287.9 12 2 10 986 1427.9 13 3 11 1624 1567.8 14 4 12 2090 1707.8 -Refer to Exhibit 11.22. Based on the regression output, what formulas should go in cells E3:E14?

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Question 91

Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Cafficienfs Intercagt 263.4545 Varable 1 5.985514 Variable 2 4.922577 A B C 1 Time Actual Quadratic 2 Year Qtr Period Time 2 Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 4 184 295.1 5 3 3 9 365 325.7 6 4 4 16 492 366.2 7 2 1 5 25 485 416.4 8 2 6 36 277 476.6 9 3 7 49 606 546.6 10 4 8 64 722 626.4 11 3 1 9 81 763 716.1 12 2 10 100 593 815.6 13 3 11 121 912 924.9 14 4 12 144 1145 1044.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.10. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

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Question 92

Exhibit 11.3 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using exponential smoothing. A B C D E F 1 Number of Exp Smoothing 2 Time Period Cars Sold Prediction 3 1 70 70.00 alpha 0.346 4 2 80 70.00 5 3 66 73.46 6 4 74 70.88 7 5 64 71.96 8 6 76 69.20 9 7 72 71.56 10 8 82 71.71 11 9 82 75.27 12 10 76 77.60 13 11 84 77.05 14 12 80 79.45 15 16 39.79 -Refer to Exhibit 11.3. What formula should be entered in cell C4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2?

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Question 93

Exhibit 11.14 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs help analyzing the data using a 2-month moving average. A B C 1 Number of 2-Month 2 Time Period Toys Sold Moving Average 3 1 174 4 2 189 5 3 168 181.5 6 4 180 178.5 7 5 165 174.\square 8 6 183 172.5 9 7 177 174.\square 10 8 192 180.\square 11 9 192 184.5 12 10 183 192.\square 13 11 195 187.5 14 12 189 189.[ 15 13 16 14 17 15 18 16 -Refer to Exhibit 11.14. What formulas should go into cells B15:B18 and cells C15:C18 of the spreadsheet if a 2-month moving average forecasting model is used?

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Question 94

In an exponential smoothing method, weights are assigned

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Question 95

Exhibit 11.20 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using Holt's method. A B C 1 Time Actual Base Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Sales 3 1 1 1 368 368.0 0.0 alpha 0.4 4 2 2 168 288.0 -48.0 368.0 beta 0.6 5 3 3 530 356.0 21.6 240.0 6 4 4 784 540.2 119.1 377.6 7 2 1 5 770 703.6 145.7 659.3 8 2 6 354 651.2 26.8 849.3 9 3 7 1012 811.6 107.0 678.0 10 4 8 1244 1048.8 185.1 918.6 11 3 1 9 1326 1270.7 207.2 1233.9 12 2 10 986 1281.2 89.1 1477.9 13 3 11 1624 1471.8 150.0 1370.3 14 4 12 2090 1809.1 262.4 1621.8 15 16 MSE 30469.5 -Refer to Exhibit 11.20. What formulas should go in cells E3:G16 of the spreadsheet if Holt's method is used to forecast sales?

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Question 96

Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. A 1 Time Actual Seasonal 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Factor Forecast 3 1 1 1 368 462.50 0.796 alpha 0.332167 4 2 2 168 462.50 0.363 beta 1 5 3 3 530 462.50 1.146 6 4 4 784 462.50 1.695 7 2 1 5 770 630.32 1.222 368.00 8 2 6 354 744.66 0.475 228.96 9 3 7 1012 790.65 1.280 853.34 10 4 8 1244 771.79 1.612 1340.26 11 3 1 9 1326 875.98 1.514 942.82 12 2 10 986 1273.96 0.774 416.43 13 3 11 1624 1272.25 1.276 1630.62 14 4 12 2090 1280.35 1.632 2050.66 15 16 85564.040 -Refer to Exhibit 11.5. What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

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Question 97

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. Rogression Stafisties Caffieients Interegt 114.136 Variable A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 254.1 5 3 3 365 324.1 6 4 4 492 394.1 7 2 1 5 485 464.0 8 2 6 277 534.0 9 3 7 606 604.0 10 4 8 722 674.0 11 3 1 9 763 743.9 12 2 10 593 813.9 13 3 11 912 883.9 14 4 12 1145 953.9 -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

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Question 98

Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Level Trend Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 55.2 0.800 4 2 2 60.0 0.870 5 3 3 86.4 1.252 6 4 4 74.4 69.0 0.0 1.078 7 2 1 5 62.4 70.8 0.5 0.808 55.2 8 2 6 67.2 72.5 0.9 0.875 62.0 9 3 7 115.2 77.1 2.0 1.276 91.9 10 4 8 86.4 79.3 2.1 1.079 85.3 11 3 1 9 74.4 83.5 2.7 0.816 65.8 12 2 10 100.8 92.0 4.4 0.897 75.5 13 3 11 127.2 97.1 4.6 1.280 123.1 14 4 12 103.2 100.5 4.3 1.074 109.8 15 16 MSE 174.43 17 alpha 0.2 18 beta 0.3 19 gamma 0.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. The store wishes to use Solver to find the optimal values for cell E6. Provide the following Risk Solver Platform (RSP) settings. Objective Cell: Variables Cells: Constraints Cells:

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Question 99

Which of the following is true of 2-month moving average forecasting function extrapolation?

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Question 100

In an exponential smoothing method, weights are assigned

Which of the following is true of 2-month moving average forecasting function extrapolation?

Introduction to Modeling and Decision Analysis

Introduction to Optimization and Linear Programming

Modeling and Solving Lp Problems in a Spreadsheet

Sensitivity Analysis and the Simplex Method

Network Modeling

Integer Linear Programming

Goal Programming and Multiple Objective Optimization

Nonlinear Programming and Evolutionary Optimization

Regression Analysis

Discriminant Analysis

Introduction to Simulation Using Risk Solver Platform

Queuing Theory

Decision Analysis

Project Management Online

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