Exam 10: Forecasting

Heidi favors using a two period moving average but Tim is "an exponential-smoothing man." Tim's demand forecast for May was identical to Heidi's.What value of alpha would Tim need to use in order for his June forecast to be identical to Heidi's if each sticks with their preferred technique?

Multiple regression is used when the forecaster believes that more than one independent variable should be used to predict the variable of interest.

A long-term movement up or down in a time series is called:

A tracking signal value between ________ and ________ would suggest that the forecasting technique in use is appropriate.

The Pancake House did a brisk business on the weekend and the maître d' was always on the lookout for ways to improve the customer experience.He carefully tracked the number of customers that graced their establishment over the last four weekends.He was hopeful that he could forecast the number of customers that would come for the world's finest pancakes the next weekend. -Using the data in the table,first plot the data and comment on the appearance of the demand pattern.Then develop a forecast for weekend #5 that fits the data.

A forecaster develops a linear regression model for quarterly sales data shown in the table.The slope of the regression equation is 37.9 and the intercept is 57.Use the regression model to determine the seasonal index for the third quarter.

Fed up with her working conditions at the call center,Lisa decides to invest in a state-of-the-art sewing machine and produce limited quantities of her own clothing designs.After a few months of operation,she decides to apply some of the forecasting techniques she mastered in school.Which of these statements about her forecasts is correct?

Dividing actual demand by the model's forecast yields an index that can be used to adjust for ________ in the data.

Use a three period weighted moving average with W_t = 0.7,W_t-1 = 0.2,and W_t-2 = 0.1 to forecast demand for July.

Supply chain partners might use a(n)________ to develop joint sales and operations plans and projections of output if they have agreed on a common set of objectives.

Two smoothing models that yield identical forecasts are exponential smoothing with an alpha equal to ________ and a moving average with n equal to ________.

Heidi runs a multiple regression for the output of cheese curds by using the daily temperature and the consumption of sweet clover.The intercept term is 23,the slope coefficient for the daily temperature is 1.5 and the slope coefficient for the consumption of sweet clover is 0.Which of these conclusions is most appropriate?

Demand was low two years ago but increased sharply last year thanks to an aggressive marketing campaign.A time series model that puts the greatest emphasis on the most recent period is probably the best choice to predict next year's demand.

What distinguishes collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment (CPFR)systems from traditional planning approaches is the emphasis on forecasting.

Develop forecasts for periods 7 through 10 for the demand data in the table using a three period moving average,a weighted moving average using 0.6,0.3,and 0.1,and exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.7.Use a 6th period forecast of 135 as the starting point for the exponential smoothing technique.

The Delphi method,panel consensus forecasting,and market surveys are all qualitative methods,but only market surveys do not use experts.

The tracking signal calculated for the first forecast is always either +1 or -1.

When there is a significant upward or downward trend in the data,the two best forecasting models are exponential smoothing and linear regression.

A seasonal index less than 1.0 means that the model is overforecasted.

A firm's demand data from the last two quarters is displayed in the table. -What is the three-period moving average for July's demand?