Question 1

To select a value for F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 for exponential smoothing

Accepted Answer

A) use a small F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 when the series varies substantially. 
B) use a large F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 when the series has little random variability. 
C) use a value between 0 and 1 
D) All of the alternatives are true. 
A) use a small F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 when the series varies substantially. 
B) use a large F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 when the series has little random variability. 
C) use a value between 0 and 1 
D) All of the alternatives are true.

Question 2

With fewer periods in a moving average,it will take longer to adjust to a new level of data values.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

Business at Terry's Tie Shop can be viewed as falling into three distinct seasons: (1)Christmas (November-December); (2)Father's Day (late May - mid-June); and (3)all other times.Average weekly sales (in $'s)during each of these three seasons during the past four years has been as follows: $$\begin{array} { c c c c c } 
\text { Season } & \text { Year 1 } & \text { Year 2 } & \text { Year 3 } & \text { Year 4 } \
\hline 1 & 1856 & 1995 & 2241 & 2280 \
2 & 2012 & 2168 & 2306 & 2408 \
3 & 985 & 1072 & 1105 & 1120
\end{array}$$ Determine a forecast for the average weekly sales in years 5 and 6 for each of the three seasons.

Accepted Answer

F_t = 797 + 1095.433S1_t + 1189.46

Question 4

If a time series has a significant trend pattern,then one should not use a moving average to forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Coyote Cable has been experiencing an increase in cable service subscribers over the last few years due to increased advertising and an influx of new residents to the region.The number of subscribers (in 1000's)for the last 16 months are as follows: $$\begin{array} { c c | c c | c c } 
\hline \hline \text { Month } & \text { Sales } & \text { Month } & \text { Sales } & \text { Month } & \text { Sales } \
\hline 1 & 12.8 & 7 & 20.6 & 12 & 23.8 \
2 & 14.6 & 8 & 18.5 & 13 & 25.1 \
3 & 15.2 & 9 & 19.9 & 14 & 24.7 \
4 & 16.1 & 10 & 23.6 & 15 & 26.5 \
5 & 15.8 & 11 & 24.2 & 16 & 28.9 \
6 & 17.2 & & & & \
\hline \hline
\end{array}$$ Forecast the number of subscribers for months 17,18,19,and 20.

Accepted Answer

T_t = 11.93 + 1.0046t

Question 6

What is a stable time series,and what forecasting methods are appropriate for one?

Accepted Answer

A stable time series is one in which the

Question 7

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Trend in a time series must be linear.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Monthly sales at a coffee shop have been analyzed.The seasonal index values are $$\begin{array} { c r } 
\text { Month } & \text { Index } \
\hline \text { Jan } & 1.38 \
\text { Feb } & 1.42 \
\text { Mar } & 1.35 \
\text { Apr } & 1.03 \
\text { May } & .99 \
\text { June } & .62 \
\text { July } & .51 \
\text { Aug } & .58 \
\text { Sept } & .82 \
\text { Oct } & .82 \
\text { Nov } & .92 \
\text { Dec } & 1.56
\end{array}$$ and the trend line is 74123 + 26.9(t).Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast sales for year 8 (months 97 - 108).

Accepted Answer

The answer of Monthly sales at a coffee shop have...

Question 11

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is
63,58,61,72,98,103,121,147,163,198
Develop a trend equation for this information,and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH LINEAR TREND
**********

Question 12

Gradual shifting of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time is called

Accepted Answer

A) periodicity. 
B) cycles. 
C) seasonality. 
D) trend. 
A) periodicity. 
B) cycles. 
C) seasonality. 
D) trend.

Question 13

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9,8,and 7.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

An alpha (F1F1F1S1F1F1F10)value of .2 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden drop in demand than will an F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 equal to .4.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods,the most appropriate accuracy measure is

Accepted Answer

A) MSE 
B) MAPE 
C) MAE 
D) ME 
A) MSE 
B) MAPE 
C) MAE 
D) ME

Question 16

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

Accepted Answer

A) a moving average 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) regression analysis 
D) a weighted moving average 
A) a moving average 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) regression analysis 
D) a weighted moving average

Question 17

Discuss the effects of using a small smoothing constant value and when it is most appropriate to use.Then,do the same for a large smoothing constant value.

Accepted Answer

Using a small smoothing constant value i

Question 18

A time series model with a seasonal pattern will always involve quarterly data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

The number of girls who attend a summer basketball camp has been recorded for the seven years the camp has been offered.Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .8 to forecast attendance for the eighth year.
47,68,65,92,98,121,146

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL S

Question 20

The number of plumbing repair jobs performed by Auger's Plumbing Service in each of the last nine months are listed below. $$\begin{array} { c c | c c | c c } 
\text { Month } & \text { Jobs } & \text { Month } & \text { Jobs } & \text { Month } & \text { Jobs } \
\hline \text { March } & 353 & \text { June } & 374 & \text { September } & 399 \
\text { April } & 387 & \text { July } & 396 & \text { October } & 412 \
\text { May } & 342 & \text { August } & 409 & \text { November } & 408
\end{array}$$ 
a.Assuming a linear trend function, forecast the number of repair jobs Auger's will perform in December using the least squares method.
b.What is your forecast for December using a three-period weighted moving average with weights of .6, .3, and .1? How does it compare with your forecast from part (a)?

Accepted Answer

a.T₁₀ = 349.667 + (10)

To select a value for  for exponential smoothing

With fewer periods in a moving average,it will take longer to adjust to a new level of data values.

If a time series has a significant trend pattern,then one should not use a moving average to forecast.

What is a stable time series,and what forecasting methods are appropriate for one?

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Trend in a time series must be linear.

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is 63,58,61,72,98,103,121,147,163,198 Develop a trend equation for this information,and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Gradual shifting of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time is called

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9,8,and 7.

An alpha ()value of .2 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden drop in demand than will an  equal to .4.

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods,the most appropriate accuracy measure is

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

Discuss the effects of using a small smoothing constant value and when it is most appropriate to use.Then,do the same for a large smoothing constant value.

A time series model with a seasonal pattern will always involve quarterly data.

The number of girls who attend a summer basketball camp has been recorded for the seven years the camp has been offered.Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .8 to forecast attendance for the eighth year. 47,68,65,92,98,121,146

Introduction

Introduction to Probability

Probability Distributions

Decision Analysis

Utility and Game Theory

Introduction to Linear Programming

Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications in Marketing, Finance, and Operations Management

Distribution and Network Models

Integer Linear Programming

Advanced Optimization Applications

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Markov Processes

Filters

Exam 6: Times Series Analysis and Forecasting

To select a value for  for exponential smoothing

With fewer periods in a moving average,it will take longer to adjust to a new level of data values.

If a time series has a significant trend pattern,then one should not use a moving average to forecast.

What is a stable time series,and what forecasting methods are appropriate for one?

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Trend in a time series must be linear.

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is 63,58,61,72,98,103,121,147,163,198 Develop a trend equation for this information,and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Gradual shifting of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time is called

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9,8,and 7.

An alpha ()value of .2 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden drop in demand than will an  equal to .4.

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods,the most appropriate accuracy measure is

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

Discuss the effects of using a small smoothing constant value and when it is most appropriate to use.Then,do the same for a large smoothing constant value.

A time series model with a seasonal pattern will always involve quarterly data.

The number of girls who attend a summer basketball camp has been recorded for the seven years the camp has been offered.Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .8 to forecast attendance for the eighth year. 47,68,65,92,98,121,146

Introduction

Introduction to Probability

Probability Distributions

Decision Analysis

Utility and Game Theory

Introduction to Linear Programming

Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications in Marketing, Finance, and Operations Management

Distribution and Network Models

Integer Linear Programming

Advanced Optimization Applications

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Markov Processes

Filters