Exam 16: Simulation

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Estimates of the financial information for a new product show the following information: Estimates of the financial information for a new product show the following information:   Use the random numbers .51,.97,.58,.22,and .16 to simulate five trials.What is the net profit for each trial? Use the random numbers .51,.97,.58,.22,and .16 to simulate five trials.What is the net profit for each trial?

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A table of uniformly distributed random numbers should be read

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How can historical information be used to create discrete probability distributions?

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Why is a flowchart useful in simulation?

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A quantity that is difficult to measure with certainty is called a

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A value for probabilistic input from a discrete probability distribution

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Verification is the process of ensuring that the simulation model provides an accurate representation of the real system.

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Simulation is a trial-and-error approach to problem solving.

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Simulation is an optimization technique.

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Three airlines compete on the route between New York and Los Angeles.Stanton Marketing has performed an analysis of first class business travelers to determine their airline choice.Stanton has modeled this choice as a Markov process and has determined the following transition probabilities.  Three airlines compete on the route between New York and Los Angeles.Stanton Marketing has performed an analysis of first class business travelers to determine their airline choice.Stanton has modeled this choice as a Markov process and has determined the following transition probabilities.    a.Show the random number assignments that can be used to simulate the first class business traveler's next airline when her last airline is A, B, and C. b.Assume the traveler used airline C last. Simulate which airline the traveler will be using over her next 25 flights. What percent of her flights are on each of the three airlines? Use the following random numbers, going from left to right, top to bottom.  \begin{array} { l l l l l }  71 & 95 & 83 & 44 & 34 \\ 49 & 88 & 56 & 05 & 39 \\ 75 & 12 & 03 & 59 & 29 \\ 77 & 76 & 57 & 15 & 53 \\ 37 & 46 & 85 & 24 & 53 \end{array} a.Show the random number assignments that can be used to simulate the first class business traveler's next airline when her last airline is A, B, and C. b.Assume the traveler used airline C last. Simulate which airline the traveler will be using over her next 25 flights. What percent of her flights are on each of the three airlines? Use the following random numbers, going from left to right, top to bottom. 71 95 83 44 34 49 88 56 05 39 75 12 03 59 29 77 76 57 15 53 37 46 85 24 53

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Which of the following statements is incorrect regarding the advantages of simulation?

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Greenfields is a mail order seed and plant business.The size of orders is uniformly distributed over the interval from $25 to $80.Use the following random numbers to generate the size of 10 orders. .41 \quad .99 \quad .07 \quad .05 \quad .38 \quad .77 \quad .19 \quad .12 \quad .58 \quad .60

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An airline reservation system first asks customers whether they want to schedule a domestic or an international flight.Sixty-five percent of the reservations are for domestic flights.The time distribution of advance sales is also important,and it is given below. Domestic Flights Make Reservations Rel. Freq. RN Range Less than 1 week in advance .25 1 week to 2 months in advance .35 Over 2 months in advance .40 International Flights Make Reservations Rel. Freq. RN Range Less than 1 week in advance .12 1 week to 2 months in advance .35 2 months to 6 months in advance .40 Over 6 months In advance .13 Flight Type Rel. Freq. RN Range Domestic .65 International .35 a.Place the appropriate random number ranges in the tables above. b.Set up and perform a simulation for three customers. Determine whether they want a domestic or international flight, and how far in advance the reservation is being made. Use random numbers from this list: .632 .715 .998 .671 .744 .021

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Numerical values that appear in the mathematical relationships of a model and are considered known and remain constant over all trials of a simulation are

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Computer-generated random numbers are normally distributed.

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Trials of a simulation show what would happen when values of the probabilistic input change.

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On a visit to an amusement park you pass someone who has just ridden a roller coaster and asks you for directions to the First Aid Station.Realizing that traffic at the First Aid Station would be something to study with simulation,you gather some information.Two EMTs staff the station,and patients wait and go to the first one available.People coming there can be divided into two groups: those who need something minor (e.g.Tylenol,a band-aid)or those who need more help.Assume those in the first group constitute 25% of the patients and take 5 minutes to have their problem solved.Those in the second group need an uncertain amount of time,as given by a probability distribution.Develop a flowchart for this simulation problem.

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The process of generating probabilistic inputs and computing the value of the output is called

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Simulation is an excellent technique to use when a situation is too complicated to use standard analytical procedures.

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One disadvantage of simulation is that it is limited in the variety of probability distributions that can be used in modeling a system.

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