Exam 13: Section 2: From Social Cognition to Affect

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There are two main reasons why affective forecasting research shows people to overestimate the impact of negative events.

Firstly, people tend to focus more on the immediate emotional impact of negative events rather than considering their long-term emotional resilience. This leads them to overestimate the duration and intensity of their negative emotions, as they fail to take into account their ability to adapt and cope with the situation over time. For example, individuals may predict that a breakup will leave them devastated for months, when in reality they may find ways to heal and move on more quickly than expected.

Secondly, individuals often engage in a phenomenon known as "immune neglect," where they underestimate their own psychological immune system's ability to protect them from the negative impact of events. This leads them to overestimate the long-term impact of negative events on their overall well-being. For instance, people may predict that losing a job will have a catastrophic and lasting effect on their happiness, when in reality they may find new opportunities and sources of fulfillment that mitigate the negative impact.

In summary, affective forecasting research shows that people overestimate the impact of negative events due to their tendency to focus on immediate emotions and underestimate their own resilience and ability to adapt.

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a. Typically, for short, state-based descriptions, people use bipolar frameworks - tradeoff between positive and negative emotions.
b. Descriptions of emotions over time, or for especially complex events, positive and negative affect are independent $\rightarrow$ bivalent structure.

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Linville's complexity-extremity hypothesis and Tesser's thought-polarization hypothesis are both theories that seek to explain the way individuals form and maintain their attitudes and beliefs. However, they differ in their focus and the mechanisms they propose.

Linville's complexity-extremity hypothesis suggests that individuals tend to form more extreme attitudes and beliefs when they encounter complex or ambiguous information. This means that when people are presented with information that is difficult to process or understand, they are more likely to adopt more extreme positions in order to simplify and make sense of the information. In contrast, Tesser's thought-polarization hypothesis focuses on the idea that individuals tend to become more extreme in their attitudes and beliefs over time, as they engage in repeated discussions and thoughts about the topic. This means that the more people think and talk about a certain issue, the more extreme their attitudes and beliefs become.

In summary, while both hypotheses address the tendency for individuals to form and maintain extreme attitudes and beliefs, Linville's complexity-extremity hypothesis focuses on the impact of complex information, while Tesser's thought-polarization hypothesis focuses on the impact of repeated thoughts and discussions.