Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

Exhibit 11.4 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.4. What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the seasonal factor using the additive seasonal effects model?

Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.11. What formula should be entered in cell H3 to compute the Seasonal Forecast value for year 1 Quarter 1?

Exhibit 11.2 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.2. What is the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3 using the weight in the spreadsheet? Associate weight w₁ with sales in time period 2 and w₂ with sales in time period 1.

Which of the following is the common approach to time-series analysis?

Exhibit 11.7 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Holt's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.7. What formula should be entered in cell F4 to compute the trend when using Holt's method?

Exhibit 11.21 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data. He wants to use Winter's method to forecast sales. -Refer to Exhibit 11.21. What is the forecast for time period 13?

Exhibit 11.19 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average method. -Refer to Exhibit 11.19. What are the forecasts for time periods 13-16?

The weighted moving average technique is a special case of the moving average technique.

Exhibit 11.20 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using Holt's method. -Refer to Exhibit 11.20. What formulas should go in cells E3:G16 of the spreadsheet if Holt's method is used to forecast sales?

Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the value for the indicator variable for year 1 Quarter 1?

How many indicator variables are required if there are p seasons in a time series and you are forecasting with a seasonal regression model?

Exhibit 11.15 The following questions use the data below. The owner of Tim's Toys wants to predict monthly sales. He has collected data for 12 months. He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. -Refer to Exhibit 11.15. What formulas should go in cells C5:C16 of the spreadsheet if Bill uses a 2 month weighted moving average forecasting model?

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell H7 to compute the Predicted Sales value for year 2 Quarter 1?

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. Which column in the spreadsheet represents the independent variable for a regression model?

MAD, MAPE, MSE and RMSE are measures of model accuracy.

Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales. The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4. -Refer to Exhibit 11.6. What are predicted sales for time period 16 using the data in the spreadsheet?

Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.9. What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. -Refer to Exhibit 11.8. What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the Trend value for year 2 Quarter 1?

Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model. The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. -Refer to Exhibit 11.12. What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?