Exam 23: Simulation

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Explain the difference between random numbers and random number intervals.

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Monte Carlo simulations applied to queuing problems have what advantage?

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From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.25, and P(demand = 1) is 0.30. The random number intervals for this distribution beginning with 01 are

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The ________ method is a simulation technique that uses random elements when chance exists in their behaviour.

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Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation. If a random number of 77 is generated what is the demand? Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 .1 2 11-25 3 .3 4 91-100

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Simulation models are inexpensive to design and use.

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In most real-world inventory problems, lead time and demand vary in ways that make simulation a necessity because mathematical modeling is extremely difficult.

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Julie's Diamond Boutique is very concerned with its order policies related to one-carat diamond solitaires. Their current policy is to order 10 diamonds whenever their inventory reaches 6 diamonds (unless there is already an ordered delivery due). Currently there are 8 diamonds on hand. Orders are placed at the end of the month and take one month to arrive . The following distribution of monthly sales has been developed using historical sales. If Julie's does not have a diamond on hand, it will result in a lost sale. Use the following random numbers to determine the number of lost sales of one-carat solitaires at Julie's over 12 months. Monthly sales Probability 3 .20 4 .30 5 .20 6 .20 7 .10 Random numbers for sales: 10, 24, 03, 32, 23, 59, 95, 34, 34, 51, 08, 48

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The numbers used to represent each possible value or outcome in a computer simulation are referred to as ________.

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The lunch counter at a small restaurant has difficulty handling the lunch business. Currently, there is only one cashier in a single-channel, single-phase system. The restaurant has collected information on the interarrival time, and service time distributions from past lunch hours. They are represented in the tables below. Use the following two-digit random numbers given below to simulate 10 customers through the checkout system. What is the average time in line, and average time in system? (Set first arrival time to the interarrival time generated by first random number. Interarrival time (minutes) Probability Service time (minutes) Probability 1 .20 1 .20 2 .20 2 .30 3 .30 3 .30 4 .20 4 .20 5 .10 Random numbers for interarrival times: 32, 73, 41, 38, 73, 01, 09, 64, 34, 44 Random numbers of service times: 84, 55, 25, 71, 34, 57, 50, 44, 95, 64

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Sam's hardware store has an order policy of ordering 11 liters of a specific primer whenever 5 liters are on hand (unless there's already an ordered delivery due). The store would like to see how well their policy works. Assume that beginning inventory in period 1 is 12 units, that orders are placed at the end of the week to be received one week later. (In other words, if an order is placed at the end of week one, it is available at the beginning of week 3.) Assume that if inventory is not on hand, it will result in a lost sale. The weekly demand distribution obtained from past sales is found in the table below. Also, use the random numbers that are provided and simulate 5 weeks worth of sales. How many sales are lost? Weekly sales Probability 3 .25 4 .25 5 .30 6 .20 Random numbers for sales: 87, 64, 79, 21, 85

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Sam's hardware store has an order policy of ordering 12 liters of a specific primer whenever 7 liters are on hand (unless there's already an ordered delivery due). The store would like to see how well their policy works. Assume that beginning inventory in period 1 is 15 units, that orders are placed at the end of the week to be received one week later. (In other words, if an order is placed at the end of week one, it is available at the beginning of week 3.) Assume that if inventory is not on hand, it will result in a lost sale. The weekly demand distribution obtained from past sales is found in the table below. Also, use the random numbers that are provided and simulate 5 weeks worth of sales. How many sales are lost? Weekly sales Probability 3 .20 4 .30 5 .30 6 .20 Random numbers for sales: 37, 60, 79, 21, 85

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What is the Monte Carlo method?

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Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation. The expected demand is 3.2. Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 .1 2 11-25 3 .3 4 91-100

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Identify the seven steps involved in using simulation.

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What are the advantages and disadvantages of simulation models?

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One effective use of simulation is to study problems for which the mathematical models of operations management are not realistic enough.

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A reason for the use of simulation in queuing is that the four standard queuing models do not allow for unusual arrival and service distributions.

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Create a distribution of random numbers that would result in average demand per period for a Monte Carlo simulation that is equivalent to the expected demand per period using the data given by the chart below. Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 . 1 .15 2 .4 3 .15 4 .2

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From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.05 and P(demand = 1) is 0.10. The cumulative probability for demand 1 would be

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