Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers

The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from time-series data: Based on the MAD criterion, the most appropriate model is

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, using the regression equation, what is the forecast for the revenues in the fourth quarter of 2011?

TABLE 16-11 Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were: Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs: SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model -Referring to Table 16-11, the values of the MAD for the two models indicate that the first-order model should be used for forecasting.

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations, there are only thirteen 3-year moving averages.

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, a centered 3-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales. The moving average for 2005 is ________.

The manager of a company believed that her company's profits were following an exponential trend. She used Microsoft Excel to obtain a prediction equation for the logarithm (base 10) of profits: The data she used were from 2003 through 2008, coded 0 to 5. The forecast for 2009 profits is ________.

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, the estimated quarterly compound growth rate in revenues is around:

TABLE 16-9 The executive vice-president of a drug manufacturing firm believes that the demand for the firm's most popular drug has been evidencing an exponential trend since 1995. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is the log base 10 of the demand for the drug, while the independent variable is years, where 1995 is coded as 0, 1996 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-9, the forecast for the demand in 2012 is ________.

TABLE 16-4 Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for a company's real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1985 to 2008. From the data, we also know that the real operating revenues for 2006, 2007, and 2008 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and 11.5537, respectively. AR(1) Model: AR(2) Model: AR(3) Model: -Referring to Table 16-4, if one decides to use AR(3), what will the predicted real operating revenue for the company be in 2011?

Which of the following terms describes the up and down movements of a time series that vary both in length and intensity?

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, construct a centered 5-year moving average for the wine sales.

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2 will be used to smooth the wine sales. The value of E₂, the smoothed value for 2002 is ________.

TABLE 16-9 The executive vice-president of a drug manufacturing firm believes that the demand for the firm's most popular drug has been evidencing an exponential trend since 1995. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is the log base 10 of the demand for the drug, while the independent variable is years, where 1995 is coded as 0, 1996 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-9, the fitted exponential trend equation to predict Y is ________.

TABLE 16-12 The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model. SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model Regression Statistics SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-12, based on the parsimony principle, the second-order model is the better model for making forecasts.

After estimating a trend model for annual time-series data, you obtain the following residual plot against time: The problem with your model is that:

TABLE 16-5 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2006 to 2008. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-5, using the regression equation, which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the third quarter of 2009?

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2 will be used to smooth the wine sales. The value of E₄, the smoothed value for 2004 is ________.

TABLE 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Table 16-3, suppose the last two smoothed values are 81 and 96 (Note: they are not). What would you forecast as the value of the time series for September?

TABLE 16-2 The monthly advertising expenditures of a department store chain (in $1,000,000s) were collected over the last decade. The last 14 months of this time series follows: -Referring to Table 16-2, advertising expenditures appear to be increasing in a linear rather than curvilinear manner over time.

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, to obtain a forecast for the third quarter of 2010 using the model, which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?