Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers

The method of least squares is used on time-series data for

In selecting an appropriate forecasting model, the following approaches are suggested:

TABLE 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Table 16-3, if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 1/3, what would be the third value?

TABLE 16-8 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1990. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-8, the fitted trend value (in millions of dollars) for 1995 is ________.

The annual multiplicative time-series model does not possess ________ component.

The MAD is a measure of the average of the absolute discrepancies between the actual and the fitted values in a given time series.

TABLE 16-4 Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for a company's real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1985 to 2008. From the data, we also know that the real operating revenues for 2006, 2007, and 2008 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and 11.5537, respectively. AR(1) Model: AR(2) Model: AR(3) Model: -Referring to Table 16-4 and using a 5% level of significance, what is the appropriate AR model for the company's real operating revenue?

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, a centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales. The moving average for 2003 is ________.

TABLE 16-1 The number of cases of chardonnay wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-1, set up a scatter diagram (i.e., a time-series plot) with year on the horizontal X-axis.

TABLE 16-5 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2006 to 2008. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-5, in testing the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (-0.083), the results were a t-statistic of -0.66 and an associated p-value of 0.530. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

TABLE 16-12 The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model. SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model Regression Statistics SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-12, using the second-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 17 is ________.

TABLE 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Table 16-3, if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 1/3, what would be the first value?

TABLE 16-9 The executive vice-president of a drug manufacturing firm believes that the demand for the firm's most popular drug has been evidencing an exponential trend since 1995. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is the log base 10 of the demand for the drug, while the independent variable is years, where 1995 is coded as 0, 1996 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-9, the fitted trend value for 2000 is ________.