Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers

TABLE 16-1 The number of cases of chardonnay wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-1, does there appear to be a relationship between year and the number of cases of wine sold?

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, the best interpretation of the coefficient of Q₃ (0.098) in the regression equation is:

A first-order autoregressive model for stock sales is: If sales in 2008 is 6000, the forecast of sales for 2009 is ________.

TABLE 16-10 The manager of a marketing consulting firm has been examining his company's yearly profits. He believes that these profits have been showing a quadratic trend since 1990. He uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is profit (in thousands of dollars), while the independent variables are coded years and squared of coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-10, the forecast for profits in 2015 is ________.

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, using the regression equation, what is the forecast for the revenues in the first quarter of 2012?

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, using the regression equation, what is the forecast for the revenues in the third quarter of 2010?

TABLE 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Table 16-3, suppose the last two smoothed values are 81 and 96 (Note: they are not). What would you forecast as the value of the time series for July?

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations, a 3-year moving average will have fewer observations than a 5-year moving average.

If you want to recover the trend using exponential smoothing, you will choose a weight (W) that falls in the range

Which of the following is not an advantage of exponential smoothing?

TABLE 16-11 Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were: Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs: SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model -Referring to Table 16-11, the fitted values for the first-order autoregressive model are ________, ________, ________, ________, and ________.

TABLE 16-7 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Table 16-7, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 5-term moving average. The first smoothed value will be ________.

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, a centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales. The moving average for 2006 is ________.

TABLE 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Table 16-3, if this series is smoothed using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 1/3, how many values would it have?

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, exponentially smooth the wine sales with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4.

TABLE 16-5 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2006 to 2008. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-5, to obtain a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2009 using the model, which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

TABLE 16-7 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Table 16-7, the number of arrivals will be exponentially smoothed with a smoothing constant of 0.25. The smoothed value for the third Monday will be ________.

A least squares linear trend line is just a simple regression line with the years recoded.

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, the best interpretation of the constant 6.102 in the regression equation is:

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, exponentially smooth the wine sales with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2.