Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers

TABLE 16-7 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Table 16-7, the number of arrivals will be exponentially smoothed with a smoothing constant of 0.25. The forecast of the number of arrivals on the seventh Monday will be ________.

TABLE 16-7 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Table 16-7, the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a 3-term moving average. The first smoothed value will be ________.

TABLE 16-12 The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model. SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model Regression Statistics SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-12, using the first-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 16 is ________.

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, in testing the significance of the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (-0.129) which has a p-value of 0.492. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

TABLE 16-8 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1990. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-8, the estimate of the amount by which sales (in millions of dollars) is increasing each year is ________.

TABLE 16-8 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1990. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-8, the forecast for sales (in millions of dollars) in 2010 is ________.

TABLE 16-10 The manager of a marketing consulting firm has been examining his company's yearly profits. He believes that these profits have been showing a quadratic trend since 1990. He uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is profit (in thousands of dollars), while the independent variables are coded years and squared of coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-10, the forecast for profits in 2010 is ________.

Which of the following statements about moving averages is not true?

TABLE 16-10 The manager of a marketing consulting firm has been examining his company's yearly profits. He believes that these profits have been showing a quadratic trend since 1990. He uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is profit (in thousands of dollars), while the independent variables are coded years and squared of coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-10, the fitted value for 1990 is ________.

TABLE 16-13 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-13, the best interpretation of the coefficient of X (0.012) in the regression equation is:

TABLE 16-7 The number of passengers arriving at San Francisco on the Amtrak cross-country express on 6 successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36, and 48. -Referring to Table 16-7, the number of arrivals will be exponentially smoothed with a smoothing constant of 0.25. The smoothed value for the second Monday will be ________.

TABLE 16-8 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1990. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics -Referring to Table 16-8, the forecast for sales (in millions of dollars) in 2015 is ________.

TABLE 16-11 Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were: Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs: SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model -Referring to Table 16-11, the value of the MAD for the first-order autoregressive model is ________.

A model that can be used to make predictions about long-term future values of a time series is

TABLE 16-11 Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were: Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs: SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model -Referring to Table 16-11, the value of the MAD for the second-order autoregressive model is ________.

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4 will be used to smooth the wine sales. The value of E₅, the smoothed value for 2005 is ________.

TABLE 16-3 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. -Referring to Table 16-3, if a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would be the second calculated value?

When a time series appears to be increasing at an increasing rate, such that percentage difference from observation to observation is constant, the appropriate model to fit is the

TABLE 16-6 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an 8-year period follows. -Referring to Table 16-6, exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2 will be used to forecast wine sales. The forecast for 2009 is ________.

TABLE 16-5 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2006 to 2008. The following is the resulting regression equation: -Referring to Table 16-5, using the regression equation, which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the second quarter of 2010?