Exam 4: Probability and Probability Models

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What is the probability of rolling a six with a fair die five times in a row?

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Every current applicant for a position in the marketing department of Company A is given a 10-question test on interpretation of findings from statistical analyses. Individuals are rated on three levels based on their scores: Excellent (9-10 correct), Average (5-8 correct), and Poor (fewer than 5 correct). Historically, the probability of an individual scoring Excellent = .38, Average = .52, and Poor = .10. Also, the company knows that 90 percent of applicants who score Excellent are offered a position, 75 percent of applicants who score Average are offered a position, and 35 percent of the applicants who score Poor are offered a position. What is the probability that an individual who is offered a position has an Excellent score?

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Bayes' Theorem is always based on two states of nature and three experimental outcomes.

(True/False)
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Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type. Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type.   Are gender and type of job mutually exclusive? Are gender and type of job mutually exclusive?

(Multiple Choice)
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It is very common for a television series to draw a large audience for special events or for cliff-hanging story lines. Suppose that on one of these occasions, the special show drew viewers from 38.2 percent of all US TV households. Suppose that three TV households are randomly selected. What is the probability that exactly one of the three households viewed the special show?

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New car owners were asked to evaluate their experiences in buying a new car during the past 12 months. In the survey, the owners indicated they were most satisfied with their experiences at the following three dealers (in no particular order): Subaru, Honda, and Buick. When ranking the dealers, how many outcomes are possible?

(Multiple Choice)
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New car owners were asked to evaluate their experiences in buying a new car during the past 12 months. In the survey, the owners indicated they were most satisfied with their experiences at the following three dealers (in no particular order): Subaru, Honda, and Buick. Assuming that each set of rankings is equally likely, what is the probability that owners ranked Subaru first and Honda second?

(Multiple Choice)
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Suppose that A1, A2, and B are events where A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive events and P(A1) = .7, P(A2) = .3, P(B│A1) = .2, P(B│A2) = .4. Find P(A2│B).

(Multiple Choice)
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At a college, 70 percent of the students are women, and 50 percent of the students receive a grade of C. 25 percent of the students are neither female nor C students. Construct a contingency table.

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Probabilities must be assigned to sample space outcomes so that the probability assigned to each sample space outcome must be between ________, inclusive.

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The ________ of event X consists of all sample space outcomes that do not correspond to the occurrence of event X.

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The ________ of two events X and Y is another event that consists of the sample space outcomes belonging to either event X or event Y or both events X and Y.

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Four employees who work as drive-through attendants at a local fast-food restaurant are being evaluated. As part of a quality improvement initiative and employee evaluation, these workers were observed over three days. One of the statistics collected was the proportion of time the employee forgot to include a napkin in the bag. Also recorded was the proportion of all dinners packed by each employee. Related information is given in the table. Four employees who work as drive-through attendants at a local fast-food restaurant are being evaluated. As part of a quality improvement initiative and employee evaluation, these workers were observed over three days. One of the statistics collected was the proportion of time the employee forgot to include a napkin in the bag. Also recorded was the proportion of all dinners packed by each employee. Related information is given in the table.   You just purchased a dinner and found that there is no napkin in your bag. What is the probability that Jan prepared your order? You just purchased a dinner and found that there is no napkin in your bag. What is the probability that Jan prepared your order?

(Multiple Choice)
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A probability model is a mathematic representation of a random phenomenon.

(True/False)
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Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type. Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type.   If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is female or works as an hourly staff member? If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is female or works as an hourly staff member?

(Multiple Choice)
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Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type. Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type.   If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is female, given that the employee is a salaried member of the staff? If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability that the employee is female, given that the employee is a salaried member of the staff?

(Multiple Choice)
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If two events are independent, we can ________ their probabilities to determine the intersection probability.

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At a college, 70 percent of the students are women, and 50 percent of the students receive a grade of C. 25 percent of the students are neither female nor C students. Use this contingency table. At a college, 70 percent of the students are women, and 50 percent of the students receive a grade of C. 25 percent of the students are neither female nor C students. Use this contingency table.   What is the probability that a student is female and a C student? What is the probability that a student is female and a C student?

(Multiple Choice)
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In a major midwestern university, 55 percent of all undergraduates are female, 25 percent of all undergraduates belong to a Greek organization (fraternity or sorority), and 40 percent of all males belong to a Greek organization. Are the events "female " and "belongs to a Greek organization" independent?

(Multiple Choice)
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At a college, 70 percent of the students are women and 50 percent of the students receive a grade of C. 25 percent of the students are neither female nor C students. Use this contingency table. At a college, 70 percent of the students are women and 50 percent of the students receive a grade of C. 25 percent of the students are neither female nor C students. Use this contingency table.   If a student has received a grade of C, what is the probability that the student is female? If a student has received a grade of C, what is the probability that the student is female?

(Multiple Choice)
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