Exam 9: Forecasting and Demand Planning

In the context of a fairly stable time series with relatively little random variability, which of the following statements is true of single exponential smoothing (SES)?

_____ are needed to plan workforce levels, allocate budgets among divisions, and schedule jobs and resources.

In the context of forecasting errors, _____ eliminates the measurement scale factor.

Judgmental forecasting relies upon historical data in developing forecasts.

The following table shows the sales data of a particular model of a DVD player. If the forecast sales for May is 36.25, calculate the sales forecast for July using the simple exponential smoothing (SES) model with a smoothing constant of 0.40. Month Sales Jan 35 Feb 29 Mar 39 Apr 42 May 51 Jun 56

In the context of data patterns in a time series, regular patterns in a data series that take place over long periods of time are called _____.

_____ is a common approach to gather data for judgmental forecasts.

If the time series in an exponential smoothing model exhibits a negative trend, the _____.

In the context of demand planning, customers' wants and needs define the customer benefit package.

_____ are necessary to plan for facility expansion.

__________is a method for building a statistical model that defines a relationship between a single dependent variable and one or more independent variables, all of which are numerical.

__________is the difference between the observed value of the time series and the forecast.

When no historical data are available, _____ is the sole basis for predicting future demands.

The following table shows the data for the sales of tennis rackets at a store for 4 consecutive months. Find the forecast error in month 4 using a 3-month moving average. Month 1 2 3 4 Sales 80 95 125 110

Moving average (MA) methods work best when:

In the context of causal forecasting models with multiple regression, an R-squared (R2) value of 0.70 means that 30 percent of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable.

_____ are used by operations managers to plan production schedules and assign workers to jobs.

The following table shows the data for the sales of a new music album at a store for 4 consecutive months. Find the forecast for the next month using a 3-month moving average. Month 1 2 3 4 Sales 112 105 125 118

In the context of data patterns and variations in a time series, _____ are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

A__________is the underlying pattern of growth or decline in a time series.