Exam 19: Introduction to Decision Analysis

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Identify the 4 steps of the expected-value criterion.

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Jamie Anderson is analyzing the following payoff table. She is trying to choose how many salads to make in advance each day before she knows the actual demand. Jamie Anderson is analyzing the following payoff table. She is trying to choose how many salads to make in advance each day before she knows the actual demand.

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All three decision criteria (maximax, maximin, minimax regret) lead to the same decisions, describing a specific decision-making philosophy.

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In reality, the typical business decision-making environment is one of certainty rather than uncertainty.

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Decision-tree analysis provides a way to take into account future decisions when making the most current decision.

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Select the best answer. A decision maker must identify the outcomes for each decision alternative and

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Some decision criteria take into account the probabilities associated with each outcome. One of the options, the expected-value criterion, refers to the long-run average outcome for a given alternative.

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Not all decisions require the use of decision analysis.

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Decision tree analysis could be missing branches on the tree. Define one important consideration that could be left out.

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A conservative decision criterion for dealing with uncertainty without using probability is referred to as the maximin criterion.

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The established basis for making a decision gives us the criteria for analyzing a decision and making a "best" choice.

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Nonprobabilistic criteria are used when either the probabilities associated with the possible payoffs are unknown or the decision maker lacks confidence and/or information with which to assess probabilities for the various payoffs.

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The payoffs associated with all possible combinations of alternatives and states of nature constitute a profit or loss table.

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A loss of convenience is the difference between the actual payoff that occurs for a decision and the optimal payoff for the same state of nature.

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In an uncertain environment, the best decision might not result in the best outcome.

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An optimistic decision criterion for dealing with uncertainty without using probability is the maximax criterion.

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Explain as clearly as possible what the "best decision" is for a business problem and what the best decision will be associated with in a certainty environment.

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A decision criterion that considers the results of selecting the "wrong" alternative is referred to as the maximax regret criterion.

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The possible outcomes in a decision situation over which the decision maker has no control is referred to as the choices.

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Describe the process of growing a decision tree and why it is such a valuable method of making a business decision.

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