Exam 22: Simulation

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Simulation can use any probability distribution that the user defines.

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What is the cumulative probability of selling 4 tires? What is the cumulative probability of selling 4 tires?

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Explain how Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers.

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One of the disadvantages of simulation is that it:

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A distribution of service times at a waiting line shows that service takes 6 minutes 30 percent of the time, 7 minutes 40 percent of the time, 8 minutes 20 percent of the time, and 9 minutes 10 percent of the time. This distribution has been prepared for Monte Carlo analysis. The first two random numbers drawn are 23 and 74. The simulated service times are ________ minutes, then ________ minutes.

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Random number intervals are based on cumulative probability distributions.

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One advantage of simulation is its ability to produce answers without adequate, realistic input.

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Which of the following is a necessity for common EOQ methodology but not simulations?

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Sam's hardware store has an order policy of ordering 12 gallons of a specific primer whenever 7 gallons are on hand (unless there's already an ordered delivery due). The store would like to see how well their policy works. Assume that beginning inventory in period 1 is 10 gallons and that orders are placed at the end of the week to be received one week later. (In other words, if an order is placed at the end of week one, it is available at the beginning of week 3.) Assume that if inventory is not on hand, it will result in a lost sale. The weekly demand distribution obtained from past sales is found in the table below. Also, use the random numbers that are provided and simulate 10 weeks' worth of sales. How many sales are lost? Sam's hardware store has an order policy of ordering 12 gallons of a specific primer whenever 7 gallons are on hand (unless there's already an ordered delivery due). The store would like to see how well their policy works. Assume that beginning inventory in period 1 is 10 gallons and that orders are placed at the end of the week to be received one week later. (In other words, if an order is placed at the end of week one, it is available at the beginning of week 3.) Assume that if inventory is not on hand, it will result in a lost sale. The weekly demand distribution obtained from past sales is found in the table below. Also, use the random numbers that are provided and simulate 10 weeks' worth of sales. How many sales are lost?    Random numbers for sales: 37, 60, 79, 21, 85, 71, 48, 39, 31, 35 Random numbers for sales: 37, 60, 79, 21, 85, 71, 48, 39, 31, 35

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Identify five applications of simulation.

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Identify the seven steps involved in using simulation.

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Define simulation.

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Virtually all large-scale simulations take place on computers, but small simulations can be conducted by hand.

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The effects of OM policies over many months or years can be obtained by computer simulation in a short time. This phenomenon is referred to as ________.

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Results of simulation experiments with large numbers of trials or long experimental runs will generally be better than those with fewer trials or shorter experimental runs.

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A distribution of lead times in an inventory problem indicates that lead time was 1 day 20 percent of the time, 2 days 30 percent of the time, 3 days 30 percent of the time, and 4 days 20 percent of the time. This distribution has been prepared for Monte Carlo analysis. The first four random numbers drawn are 06, 63, 47, and 02. What is the average lead time of this simulation?

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Identify, in order, the five steps required to implement the Monte Carlo simulation technique.

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Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation. Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation.

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From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.06, P(demand = 1) is 0.10, and P(demand = 2) is 0.20. What are the two-digit random number intervals for this distribution beginning with 01?

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Which of the following statements regarding simulation is FALSE?

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