Exam 4: Using Probability and Probability Distributions

The Baker Oil and Gas Company has four retail locations,code-named A,B,C,and D.The following table illustrates the percentage of total company sales at each store and also the percentage of customers at that store who make purchases with debit cards: Based on this information,given that a customer has used a debit card to make the purchase,the sale was most likely made at store D.

Classical probability assessment is likely to be the most common method of probability assessment used in business decision making.

If two events are mutually exclusive,it is possible for them to also be independent of each other.

When a customer enters a store there are three outcomes that can occur: buy nothing,buy a small amount,or buy a large amount.In this situation,if a customer buys a large amount,he or she cannot also buy a small amount or buy nothing.Thus the events are:

A study was recently done in which 500 people were asked to indicate their preferences for one of three products.The following table shows the breakdown of the responses by gender of the respondents. If the people conducting the study wish to assess the probability that product A will be preferred by members of the target population,the method of assessment to be used would most likely be:

The owners of Greg's Department Store have reason to believe that one of their employees has been stealing from the store.In an interview with the police,the owner says that she is 75 percent sure that the employee is stealing.This probability is an example of one that was assessed using classical probability.

List three methods of assessing probabilities and indicate which is least likely to be used in business decision making.

The managers of a local golf course have recently conducted a study of the types of golf balls used by golfers based on handicap.A joint frequency table for the 100 golfers covered in the survey is shown below: Based on these data,the probability of someone using a Strata ball and having a handicap under 2 is:

A study was recently done in which 500 people were asked to indicate their preferences for one of three products.The following table shows the breakdown of the responses by gender of the respondents. Suppose one person is randomly chosen.Based on this data,what is the probability that the person chosen is a female who prefers product C?

A consumer products company is planning to introduce a new product.The method that is least likely to be used to assess the probability of the product being successful is:

The Anderson Lumber Company has three sawmills that produce boards of different lengths.The following table is a joint frequency distribution based on a random sample of 1,000 boards selected from the lumber inventory. Based on these data,if a board is selected that is 12 feet long,the probability that it was made at sawmill A is:

The managers of a local golf course have recently conducted a study of the types of golf balls used by golfers based on handicap.A joint frequency table for the 100 golfers covered in the survey is shown below: Based on these data,if a player has a handicap that is 10 or more,the probability that he or she will use a Nike golf ball is:

Explain why it is possible for two managers to assess different values for the probability that a supplier will fail to deliver a shipment on time.

If the probability of one event occurring is .40 and the probability of a second event occurring is 0.60,then the probability that both events will occur must be 1.0 since that is the maximum value a probability can be.

There are three general locations that a taxi can go to: the airport,downtown,and elsewhere.When a taxi driver starts in the downtown location,there is a 0.40 chance that his first call will take him to the airport and a 0.40 chance of going to another downtown location.Once a taxi is at the airport,there is a 0.80 probability that the next fare will take him downtown and a 0.20 chance of going elsewhere.The probability of a call from anywhere except downtown taking him to the airport is 0.20.Therefore,the probability that the taxi is at the airport when the third call arrives after going on shift is 0.20.

A dam on a river that holds back a water reservoir begins to leak.Engineers say that there is a 10 percent chance of the dam breaking if repairs are not made.This is an example of classical probability.

A manufacturing company makes three types of products.Each time it makes a product,the item can be either good or defective and it can be either customized or standard.The events consisting of customized and defective would be considered mutually exclusive since they apply to different attributes of the product.

Two football teams play in the Super Bowl.The event of team A winning and the event of team B winning can be said to be mutually exclusive.

If you were planning to take a small group out to dinner on a Thursday evening and you were considering whether to call ahead for a reservation,the method of probability assessment you would most likely use to assess the chances of being able to get in for dinner without having a reservation would be subjective assessment.

Assume P(A)= 0.6,P(B)= 0.7,and P(A and B)= 0.42,which means that events A and B are independent of each other.