Exam 4: Using Probability and Probability Distributions

When a patient arrives at a clinic complaining of several specific symptoms,the doctor who makes the diagnosis says that he is 80 percent certain that the patient has a particular problem.It is likely that he is basing this assessment on relative frequency of occurrence.

The following probability distribution was subjectively assessed for the number of sales a salesperson would make if he or she made five sales calls in one day. Given this distribution,the probability that the number of sales is less than 2 is 0.15.

The following probability distribution was subjectively assessed for the number of sales a salesperson would make if he or she made five sales calls in one day. Given this distribution,the probability that the number of sales is more than 2 is 0.80.

The Crystal Window Company makes windows at three locations: Reno,Las Vegas,and Boise.Some windows made by the company contain a visible defect and must be replaced.Each defect costs the company $45.00.The Reno plant makes 40 percent of all windows while the Las Vegas and Boise plants split the remaining production evenly.A recent quality study shows that 8 percent of the Reno windows contain a defect,11 percent of the Las Vegas windows contain a defect,while 4 percent of the windows made in Boise have a defect.Once the windows are made,they are shipped to a central warehouse where they are commingled and the location where they were made is lost. Based on this information the probability that a defective window was made by the Boise plant is approximately 0.16.

The managers of a local golf course have recently conducted a study of the types of golf balls used by golfers based on handicap.A joint frequency table for the 100 golfers covered in the survey is shown below: Based on these data,the probability of a golfer having a handicap less than 10 is:

A car salesman has noted that the probability that the dealership sells a car on a Saturday morning is .30.Then the probability of the dealership not selling a car on Saturday morning is .70.

Assume P(A)= 0.4 and P(B)= 0.2 and P(A and B)= 0.1,then the probability of P(A or B)= 0.7.

When customers come to a bank,there are three primary locations they may select to go to: teller,loan officer,or escrow department.Based on past experience,the following probability distribution applies: Seventy percent of customers are males.The probability that three consecutive customers all go to a teller is approximately 0.22.

Suppose 10 students are enrolled in a class and the probability of at least 8 showing up on a given day is 90 percent.Then the probability of 7 or fewer showing that day is 10 percent.

The Baker Oil and Gas Company has four retail locations,code-named A,B,C,and D.The following table illustrates the percentage of total company sales at each store and also the percentage of customers at that store who make purchases with debit cards: Based on this information,the probability that a customer will use a debit card is just slightly greater than 0.23.

Of the last 100 customers entering a computer shop,25 have purchased a computer.If the classical probability assessment for computing probability is used,the probability that the next customer will purchase a computer is

A study was recently done in which 500 people were asked to indicate their preferences for one of three products.The following table shows the breakdown of the responses by gender of the respondents. Based on these data,the probability that a person in the population will prefer product A can be assessed as:

A New Jersey company relies on a steady supply of power to keep its manufacturing going.Recently at a planning meeting,the general manager stated that the chance of a rolling blackout affecting production is 0.15.She most likely made this assessment using subjective probability assessment.

Assume that a standard deck of 52 playing cards is randomly shuffled and the first 2 cards are dealt to you.What is the probability that you have a blackjack? A blackjack is where one card is an ace and the other card is worth 10 points.The 10-point cards are kings,queens,jacks and 10's.

At gambling casinos all over the country,a popular dice game is called craps.The probability of a player winning at this game can be assessed using:

The Baker Oil and Gas Company has four retail locations,code-named A,B,C,and D.The following table illustrates the percentage of total company sales at each store and also the percentage of customers at that store who make purchases with debit cards: Based on this information,the probability that a customer who used a debit card shopped at store C is 0.0738.

In most situations,there is no difference between the events and the elementary events.