Exam 20: An Introduction to Decision Theory

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket. The ticket costs $2.00. If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $1,000. Knowing that winning $1,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.001. Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed: What is the decision using a maximax or optimistic approach?

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket. The ticket costs $1.00. If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $10,000. Knowing that winning $10,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.0009. Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed. Based on the expected monetary value of buying a ticket, what is the best decision?

What is the purpose of sensitivity analysis in decision theory?

A maximin strategy will always choose the act or alternative that:

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the opportunity loss for purchasing seven watermelons when the demand is for six watermelons?

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket. The ticket costs $1.00. If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $10,000. Knowing that winning $10,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.0009. Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed. What is the decision using a maximin approach?

The maximax strategy is an ________ strategy for decision making.

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the opportunity loss for purchasing eight watermelons when the demand is for nine watermelons?

When the payoffs are profits, the maximin strategy selects the alternative or act with the maximum gain.

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. If the merchant purchases seven watermelons, the maximum opportunity loss occurs when the demand is how many units?

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts provides all salespersons with the payoff table shown next, giving the estimated profit when a retailer purchases from one to four dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. What is the value of perfect information if the expected payoff is $180?

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket. The ticket costs $1.00. If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $10,000. Knowing that winning $10,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.0009. Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed. What is the probability of losing $1.00?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. If the merchant purchases eight watermelons, the minimum opportunity loss occurs when the demand is how many units?

You have four different strategic business plans you can select to implement against your competitors. You estimate that the probability that the competitors are aware of your strategies is 0.3, and 0.7 that they are unaware. The payoffs estimated for each scenario are shown next. What strategy should you choose if the competitor is aware?

A minimax regret strategy will always choose the act or alternative that:

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the opportunity loss for purchasing seven watermelons when the demand is for nine watermelons?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the payoff value for the purchase of seven watermelons when the demand is for seven or more watermelons?

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket. The ticket costs $2.00. If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $1,000. Knowing that winning $1,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.001. Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed: What is the probability of losing $2.00?

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts provides all salespersons with the payoff table shown next, giving the estimated profit when a retailer purchases from one to four dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. What is the expected payoff for purchasing four dozen T-shirts?

A student is planning a trip home for the holidays and has three options: car, train, or jet. The decision depends on if the weather is good or bad. In addition, the student estimated the costs for each option. The payoff table follows. What is the expected value of taking a jet?