Exam 18: Time Series and Forecasting

The following table shows the sales for a plastics manufacturer recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data. What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 3?

Why are long-range predictions considered essential to managing a firm?

For the third quarter, the sales are 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.85. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?

The forecast for the third quarter is 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.79. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?

In a linear trend equation, which variable represents the average change in the dependent variable for every unit change in time?

The preferred method used to smooth the trend in a time series is called a ____________.

The forecast for the third quarter is 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.18. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?

Product sales since 1999 are: The least squares trend equation is given as: Ŷ = 265.12 - 21.18t, where t is set equal to 1 for 1999. What is the three-year moving average for 1999-2001?

The following table shows the sales for a resort hotel recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data. What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 1?

In a time series, economic periods of prosperity followed by recession are described as a(n) ___________.

In a time series, high sales in the summer and low sales in the winter is called what?

For the following time series, you are given the moving average forecast. The three-year moving average for 2004 is ______.

Using the following time series data, What is the four-quarter moving average for 2009?

The following table shows the sales for a resort hotel recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data. What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 3?

The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 100 + 120t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 1.15. What are the forecast sales for period 8?

Which one of the following is not a component of a time series?

For the trend equation, log Ŷ = log (a) + log (bt), the time series is _____.

The __________________ method is most commonly used to compute typical seasonal indexes.

If we eliminate trend, cyclical, and irregular variation from a monthly sales series, only the ___________________ time series component remains.

What is an advantage of the least squares method for determining a trend line equation?