Exam 20: An Introduction to Decision Theory

A ________ decision-making strategy maximizes the maximum gain.

The maximin strategy is a __________ strategy for decision making.

A person is trying to decide if they should buy a lottery ticket. The ticket costs $1.00. If the ticket is a winner, the prize would be $10,000. Knowing that winning $10,000 is not a certain outcome (state of nature), the person finds that the probability of winning is 0.0009. Based on this information, the following payoff table can be constructed. What is the value of perfect information?

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts provides all salespersons with the payoff table shown next, giving the estimated profit when a retailer purchases from one to four dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. What is the expected payoff for purchasing two dozen T-shirts?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the payoff value for the purchase of nine watermelons when the demand is for eight watermelons?

You have four different strategic business plans you can select to implement against your competitors. You estimate that the probability that the competitors are aware of your strategies is 0.3, and 0.7 that they are unaware. The payoffs estimated for each scenario are shown next. What strategy should you choose if the competitor is unaware?

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts provides all salespersons with the following opportunity loss table showing the potential lost profit for each purchase decision or act from one to four dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. What is the expected opportunity loss of purchasing two dozen T-shirts?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the payoff value for the purchase of six watermelons when the demand is for six watermelons?

The expected value under conditions of uncertainty subtracted from the expected value under conditions of certainty will result in:

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts provides all salespersons with the following opportunity loss table showing the potential lost profit for each purchase decision or act from one to four dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. What is the expected opportunity loss of purchasing one dozen T-shirts?

When all the facts are known in a decision-making situation, it can be said that the decision was made under conditions of _____________.

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts provides all salespersons with the payoff table shown next, giving the estimated profit when a retailer purchases from one to four dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. How many dozen "I colored this" T-shirts should be purchased to yield the highest payoff?

You have a decision to invest $10,000 in any of four different companies. You estimate the probabilities that the economy will be favorable or unfavorable and you estimate the percent returns over the next year. Based on expected opportunity loss, what is the choice?

A student is planning a trip home for the holidays and has three options: car, train, or jet. The decision depends on if the weather is good or bad. In addition, the student estimated the costs for each option. The payoff table follows. What is the expected value of driving a car?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the opportunity loss for purchasing six watermelons when the demand is for eight watermelons?

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the opportunity loss for purchasing eight watermelons when the demand is for eight watermelons?

The potential loss associated with a future state of nature is called ________________.

The national sales manager for "I colored this" (ICT) T-shirts provides all salespersons with the following opportunity loss table showing the potential lost profit for each purchase decision or act from one to four dozen T-shirts. The probability of demand for each state of nature is also shown. What is the expected opportunity loss of purchasing three dozen T-shirts?

The _____________________ is the difference between the expected monetary value under conditions of certainty and the expected monetary value under uncertainty.

The manager of Paul's fruit and vegetable store is considering the purchase of a new seedless watermelon from a wholesale distributor. Since this seedless watermelon costs $4, will sell for $7, and is highly perishable, he only expects to sell between six and nine of them. What is the opportunity loss for purchasing six watermelons when the demand is for six watermelons?