Exam 5: Probability: Review of Basic Concepts

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The ____________________ of events describes the case where two or more events occur at the same time.

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intersection

Events are ____________________ when the occurrence of one event changes the probability that another will occur.

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dependent

Interest rates The following represent interest rates on 20 U.S.Treasury bond issues with maturity dates in 2000-2001,as listed in Money Magazine: Interest rates The following represent interest rates on 20 U.S.Treasury bond issues with maturity dates in 2000-2001,as listed in Money Magazine:   -Using the letter identifications,calculate P (A or F). -Using the letter identifications,calculate P (A or F).

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0.25

Probabilities The prior probabilities for two events A1 and A2 are P(A1)= .30 and P(A2)= .70.It is also known that P(A1 and A2)= 0.Suppose P(B / A1)= .15 and P(B / A2)= .05. -Compute P(A2 and B).

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Plan to buy Intentions of consumers regarding future automobile purchases and the financial capability of the consumers are given below: Plan to buy Qualify for Financing Within 6 months () 6 months or longer () No (C) Yes (D) 0.30 0.20 0.10 No (E) 0.10 0.10 0.20 -For a randomly selected consumer,find the following probability: P(A or D).

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Portfolio Composition An investment firm has classified its clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds,primarily stocks,or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table: Partfolin Compasition Cender Ennds Stacks Galanced Mala 0.18 0.20 0.25 Female 0.12 0.05 0.20 One client is selected at random,and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. -Find the following probabilities: A)P(A or B) B)P(A and B)

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Dormitory A dormitory has two activating devices in each fire detector.One is smoke activated and has a probability of .98 of sounding an alarm when it should.The second is a heat sensitive activator and has a probability of .95 of operating when it should.Each activator operates independently of the other.Presume a fire starts near a detector. -What is the probability that both types of activators will work properly?

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When events are mutually exclusive,two or more of them can happen at the same time.

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Event 1 The prior probabilities of events A1,A2,and A3 are P(A1)= .50,P(A2)= .20 and P(A3)= .30.The conditional probabilities of event B given A1,A2,and A3 are P(B / A1)= .40,P(B / A2)= .50 and P(B / A3)= .30. -A state's license plate has 9 positions,each of which has 37 possibilities (26 letters,10 integers,or blank).If the purchaser of a vanity plate wants his first seven positions to be Stanley,in how many ways can his plate appear?

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Interest rates The following represent interest rates on 20 U.S.Treasury bond issues with maturity dates in 2000-2001,as listed in Money Magazine: Interest rates The following represent interest rates on 20 U.S.Treasury bond issues with maturity dates in 2000-2001,as listed in Money Magazine:   -Using the letter identifications,calculate P (B and D). -Using the letter identifications,calculate P (B and D).

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Portfolio Composition An investment firm has classified its clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds,primarily stocks,or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table: Partfolin Compasition Cender Ennds Stacks Galanced Mala 0.18 0.20 0.25 Female 0.12 0.05 0.20 One client is selected at random,and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. -Are A and B independent events? Explain.

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At a track meet,eight runners are competing in the 100-yard dash.First,second,and third trophies will be awarded.In how many ways can the trophies be awarded?

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What is the probability that the item is defective?

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Candidate Six candidates for a new position of vice-president for academic affairs have been selected.Three of the candidates are female.The candidates' years of experience are as follows: Candidate Experience Female 1 5 Female 2 9 Female 3 11 Male 1 6 Male 2 4 Male 3 8 Suppose one of the candidates is selected at random.Define the following events: A = person selected has 9 years experience. B = person selected is a female. Are events A and B independent? Explain using probability.

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Telephone survey A political telephone survey of 360 people asked whether they were in favor or not in favor of a proposed law.Each person was identified as either Republican or Democrat.The results are shown in the following table: Party In Favar Nat in Favar Undecided Tatal Republican 98 54 4\square 192 Democrat 79 29 60 168 Tatal 177 83 100 360 -What is the probability that a randomly selected respondent was in favor of the proposed law?

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Event 1 The prior probabilities of events A1,A2,and A3 are P(A1)= .50,P(A2)= .20 and P(A3)= .30.The conditional probabilities of event B given A1,A2,and A3 are P(B / A1)= .40,P(B / A2)= .50 and P(B / A3)= .30. -Compute P(B and A3).

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Gulf Coast A Gulf Coast travel park has the following accommodations: Number of bedrooms Location 3 Gedranm 4 Gedranm Tatal Beach Frant 17 24 41 Nan Beach Frant 6 210 216 Tatal 23 234 257 -What is the probability of selecting a non beach front site with 3 bedrooms?

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Machines Machine A produces 3% defectives,machine B produces 5% defectives,and machine C produces 10% defectives.Of the total output from these machines,60% of the items are from machine A,30% from B,and 10% from C.One item is selected at random from a day's production. What is the prior probability that the item came from machine A? Machine B? Machine C?

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Burger Queen Co. The Burger Queen Company has 124 locations along the west coast.The general manager is concerned with the profitability of the locations compared with major menu items sold.The information below shows the number of each menu item selected by profitability of store. Profit Baby Burger MI Mother Burger Father Burger Nachos M4 Tacos Total High Profit RI 250 424 669 342 284 1969 Medium Profit R2 312 369 428 271 200 1580 Low Profit R3 289 242 216 221 238 1206 Total: 851 1035 1313 834 722 4755 -What is the probability of tacos being selected at a low profit store?

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From an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards one is selected at random.Define the following events: A = card selected is an Ace. B = card selected is a Queen. C = card selected is a three. Are A,B,and C mutually exclusive events? Use the addition rule to find P(A or B or C).

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