Exam 5: Probability: Review of Basic Concepts

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Candidate Six candidates for a new position of vice-president for academic affairs have been selected.Three of the candidates are female.The candidates' years of experience are as follows: Candidate Experience Female 1 5 Female 2 9 Female 3 11 Male 1 6 Male 2 4 Male 3 8 Suppose one of the candidates is selected at random.Define the following events: A = person selected has 9 years experience. B = person selected is a female. -Find P(B).

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Events are ____________________ when the occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability that another will occur.

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The table below gives the probabilities of combinations of religion and political parties in a major U.S.city. Religion Political parties Protestant (A) Catholic (B) Jewish (C) Other (D) Democrat (E) 0.35 0.10 0.03 0.02 Republican (F) 0.27 0.09 0.02 0.01 Independent (G) 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 -What is the probability that a randomly selected person would be a Protestant and at the same time be a Democrat or a Republican?

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Event 1 The prior probabilities of events A1,A2,and A3 are P(A1)= .50,P(A2)= .20 and P(A3)= .30.The conditional probabilities of event B given A1,A2,and A3 are P(B / A1)= .40,P(B / A2)= .50 and P(B / A3)= .30. -How many different combinations are possible if 8 substitute workers are available to fill 4 openings created by employees planning to take vacation leave next week?

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The grade distribution for a particular statistics exam was recorded as follows: Grade Number of Students 90-100 10 80- 89 10 70-79 8 60-69 2 Total 30 The probability that a randomly selected student received an "A" was found to be 33%.This is an example of__________________________________________________ approach to probability.

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Bayes' theorem is an extension of the concept of conditional probability.

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The joint probability of Events A and B is described as:

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Because we can determine the probability without actually engaging in any experiments,the classical approach is also referred to as the ____________________ approach.

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Burger Queen Co. The Burger Queen Company has 124 locations along the west coast.The general manager is concerned with the profitability of the locations compared with major menu items sold.The information below shows the number of each menu item selected by profitability of store. Profit Baby Burger MI Mother Burger Father Burger Nachos M4 Tacos Total High Profit RI 250 424 669 342 284 1969 Medium Profit R2 312 369 428 271 200 1580 Low Profit R3 289 242 216 221 238 1206 Total: 851 1035 1313 834 722 4755 -Determine the probability for: A)P(M5) B)P(R3) C)P(R2 and M3) D)P(M2 / R2) E)P(R1 / M4)

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Plan to buy Intentions of consumers regarding future automobile purchases and the financial capability of the consumers are given below: Plan to buy Qualify for Financing Within 6 months () 6 months or longer () No (C) Yes (D) 0.30 0.20 0.10 No (E) 0.10 0.10 0.20 -For a randomly selected consumer,find the following probability: P(B and D).

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Event Event Event Total DI 75 125 65 35 300 D2 90 105 60 45 300 D3 135 120 75 70 400 Total: 300 325 200 150 1000 -Find P (D1 or D2 or D3).

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If the event of interest is A,then:

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Express the probability concept of independence for events A and B in marginal and conditional probabilities.

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Manufacturers A large men's store in a mall purchases suits from four different manufacturers in short,regular,and long.Their current selections are given in the contingency table below: Маnufacturers Length Total S 15 15 35 35 100 R 60 70 75 70 275 L 25 35 40 25 125 Total: 100 120 150 130 500 Let the abbreviations and letters represent the events.For example Event S = a randomly selected suit is short,event HMS = a randomly selected suit is manufactured by HMS. -Compute P(HMS).

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____________________ probabilities find their greatest application in games of chance,but they are not so useful when the underlying processes are not well known.

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Telephone survey A political telephone survey of 360 people asked whether they were in favor or not in favor of a proposed law.Each person was identified as either Republican or Democrat.The results are shown in the following table: Party In Favar Nat in Favar Undecided Tatal Republican 98 54 4\square 192 Democrat 79 29 60 168 Tatal 177 83 100 360 -What is the probability that a randomly selected respondent was a Democrat?

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A useful graphical method of constructing the sample space for an experiment is:

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Gender The physical science degrees conferred by a school between 1992 and 1995 were broken down as follows: Gender Major Male Female Total Physics 25 25 50 Chemistry 60 40 100 Geology 30 20 50 Total 115 85 200 Suppose a person is selected at random from these graduates.Consider the following events: M: The person is a male. F: The person is a female. P: The person graduated in physics. C: The person graduated in chemistry. G: The person graduated in geology. -A firm produces three qualities of bed linens -- good,better,best.Production is scheduled to result in 50% good,35% better,and 15% best.A quality control person checks the finished product and classified them as acceptable or imperfect.The percentages acceptable are good,92%; better,88%; best,82%.Find the posterior probability that a sheet,which is "acceptable",will be acceptable.

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Probabilities The prior probabilities for two events A1 and A2 are P(A1)= .30 and P(A2)= .70.It is also known that P(A1 and A2)= 0.Suppose P(B / A1)= .15 and P(B / A2)= .05. -Compute P(B).

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Interest rates The following represent interest rates on 20 U.S.Treasury bond issues with maturity dates in 2000-2001,as listed in Money Magazine: Interest rates The following represent interest rates on 20 U.S.Treasury bond issues with maturity dates in 2000-2001,as listed in Money Magazine:   -Determine the probability that a randomly selected bond will have a rate of interest of ten percent up to but not including 14 percent. -Determine the probability that a randomly selected bond will have a rate of interest of ten percent up to but not including 14 percent.

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