Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

The number of pizzas ordered on Friday evenings between 5:30 and 6:30 at a pizza delivery location for the last 10 weeks is shown below.Use exponential smoothing with smoothing constants of 0.2 and 0.8 to forecast a value for Week 11.Compare your forecasts using MSE.Which smoothing constant would you prefer? 58,46,55,39,42,63,54,55,61,52

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend,cyclical,or seasonal pattern is

Monthly sales at a coffee shop have been analyzed.The seasonal index values are as follows: The trend line is 74,123 + 26.9t.Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast sales for Year 8 (months 97-108).

Weekly sales of the Weber food processor for the past 10 weeks have been as follows: ​ ​ a.Determine,on the basis of minimizing the mean square error,whether a three- or four-period simple moving average model gives a better forecast for this problem. b.For each model,forecast sales for Week 11.

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is a weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Below you are given information on John's Hair Salon's profit for the past seven years.​ a.Use regression analysis to obtain an expression for the linear trend projection. b.Forecast John's Hair Salon's profit for the next five years.

All of the following are true about a stationary time series EXCEPT

All of the following are true about time series methods EXCEPT

We can model a time series with a seasonal pattern by treating the season itself as a(n)

A four-period moving average forecast for period 10 would be found by averaging the values from periods 10,9,8,and 7.

Quarterly revenues (in $1,000,000s)for a national restaurant chain for a five-year period were as follows: ​ a.Solve for the forecast equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. b.Forecast the four quarters of Year 6.

Gradual shifting of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time is called

When forecasting,if a greater number of past values are considered relevant,then we generally opt for a larger value of k.

The mean squared error is obtained by computing the average of the squared forecast errors.

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend or seasonal patterns are present.

A 24-hour coffee/donut shop makes donuts every eight hours.The manager must forecast donut demand so that the bakers have the fresh ingredients they need.Listed below is the actual number of glazed donuts (in dozens)sold in each of the preceding 13 eight-hour shifts. ​ a.Develop the optimization model that finds the estimated regression equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. b.Solve for the estimated regression equation. c.Forecast the demand for glazed donuts for the day,evening,and night shifts of June 8.

For a time series with relatively little random variability,we should use larger values of the smoothing constant to provide the advantage of allowing the forecasts to react more quickly to changing conditions.

Trend in a time series must always be linear.

Forecast errors