Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

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A customer comment phone line is staffed from 8:00 a.Develop the optimization model that finds the estimated regression equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. a.m.to 4:30 p.m.five days a week.Records are available that show the number of calls received every day for the last five weeks. A customer comment phone line is staffed from 8:00 a.Develop the optimization model that finds the estimated regression equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. a.m.to 4:30 p.m.five days a week.Records are available that show the number of calls received every day for the last five weeks.    ​  b. Solve for the estimated regression equation. c. Forecast the five days of Week 6. ​ b. Solve for the estimated regression equation. c. Forecast the five days of Week 6.

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Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

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If a time series has a significant trend pattern,then one should not use a moving average to forecast.

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A sequence of observations on a variable measured at successive points in time or over successive periods of time is known as a time series.

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Whenever a categorical variable such as season has k levels,the number of dummy variables required is

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To select a value for α for exponential smoothing

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With fewer periods in a moving average,it will take longer to adjust to a new level of data values.

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The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth out

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Using a naive forecasting method,the forecast for next week's sales volume equals

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In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods,the most appropriate accuracy measure is

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The number of plumbing repair jobs performed by Auger's Plumbing Service in each of the last nine months is listed below. The number of plumbing repair jobs performed by Auger's Plumbing Service in each of the last nine months is listed below.   ​  a.Assuming a linear trend function,forecast the number of repair jobs Auger's will perform in December using the least squares method. b.What is your forecast for December using a three-period weighted moving average with weights of 0.6,0.3,and 0.1? How does it compare with your forecast from part (a)? ​ a.Assuming a linear trend function,forecast the number of repair jobs Auger's will perform in December using the least squares method. b.What is your forecast for December using a three-period weighted moving average with weights of 0.6,0.3,and 0.1? How does it compare with your forecast from part (a)?

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If the random variability in a time series is great,a small value of the smoothing constant is preferred so that we do not overreact and adjust our forecasts too quickly.​

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In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods,relative measures such as mean absolute error (MAE)are preferred.

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All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern EXCEPT

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Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

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All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

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Sales (in 1000s)of the new Thorton Model 506 convection oven over the eight-week period since its introduction have been as follows: Sales (in 1000s)of the new Thorton Model 506 convection oven over the eight-week period since its introduction have been as follows:   ​  a.Which exponential smoothing model provides better forecasts,one using α = 0.6 or α = 0.2? Compare them using mean squared error. b.Using the two forecast models in part (a),what are the forecasts for Week 9? ​ a.Which exponential smoothing model provides better forecasts,one using α = 0.6 or α = 0.2? Compare them using mean squared error. b.Using the two forecast models in part (a),what are the forecasts for Week 9?

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The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

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Time series data can exhibit seasonal patterns of less than one month in duration.

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Seasonal patterns

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