Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

A trend line for the weekly attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by the following: ​ ​ How many guests would you expect in Week 20?

Business at Terry's Tie Shop can be viewed as falling into three distinct seasons: (1)Christmas (November-December); (2)Father's Day (late May-mid-June); and (3)all other times.Average weekly sales (in $s)for each of these three seasons during the past four years have been as follows: ​ Determine a forecast for the average weekly sales in Years 5 and 6 for each of the three seasons.

Linear trend is calculated as .The trend projection for period 15 is

Qualitative forecasting methods are appropriate when historical data on the variable being forecast are either unavailable or not applicable.

In order to use moving averages to forecast a time series,the first step is to select the order k,the number of time series values to be included in the moving average.

The number of properties newly listed with a real estate agency in each quarter over the last four years is given below.Assume the time series has seasonality without trend.​ ​ a.Develop the optimization model that finds the estimated regression equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. b.Solve for the estimated regression equation. c.Forecast the four quarters of Year 5.

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

Using exponential smoothing,the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a five-period moving average?

Coyote Cable has been experiencing an increase in cable service subscribers over the last few years due to increased advertising and an influx of new residents to the region.The number of subscribers (in 1000s)for the last 16 months is as follows: ​ ​ Forecast the number of subscribers for Months 17,18,19,and 20.

Quarterly billing for water usage is shown below.​ ​ a.Solve for the forecast equation that minimizes the sum of squared error. b.Forecast the summer of Year 5 and spring of Year 6.

If we focus upon the historical data,or past values of the variable to be forecast,we refer to this as a time series method of forecasting.

When using a moving average of order k to forecast,a small value for k is preferred if only the most recent values of the time series are considered relevant.