Question 1

The ________ is a process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.

Accepted Answer

Delphi method

Question 2

Table 8.4
The Furniture Super Mart is a furniture retailer in Evansville,Indiana.The Marketing Manager wants to prepare a media budget based on the next quarter's business plan.The manager wants to decide the mix of radio advertising and newspaper advertising needed to generate varying levels of Weekly Gross Revenue.The manager has collected data for the past five weeks,and has recorded the following average Weekly Gross Revenues and expenditures for Weekly Radio (X1)and Newspaper (X2)advertising:
   The Manager uses the multiple regression model in OM Explorer and obtains the following results:  
-Use the information provided in Table 8.4.Adding $1,000 of Weekly Newspaper Advertising (X2)can be expected to increase Weekly Gross Revenues by what amount? (Assume all other variables are held constant. )

Accepted Answer

A) $20,500 
B) $3,750 
C) $6,500 
D) $10,250 
A) $20,500 
B) $3,750 
C) $6,500 
D) $10,250 B

Question 3

Table 8.5  
-Use the information in Table 8.5.Using the simple moving-average technique for the most recent three months,what will be the forecasted demand for November?

Accepted Answer

A) fewer than or equal to 260 units 
B) greater than 260,but fewer than or equal to 275 units 
C) greater than 275,but fewer than or equal to 290 units 
D) more than 290 units 
A) fewer than or equal to 260 units 
B) greater than 260,but fewer than or equal to 275 units 
C) greater than 275,but fewer than or equal to 290 units 
D) more than 290 units C

Question 4

________ is a causal method of forecasting in which one variable is related to one or more variables by a linear equation.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ is a causal method of forecasting...

Question 5

Judgment methods of forecasting are quantitative methods that use historical data on independent variables to predict demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Draw a curve that represents four out of the five demand patterns for time series as discussed in this chapter.Clearly label both dependent and independent axis and the salient features of your graph that demonstrate your chosen patterns.Select a product or service and discuss what influences might cause it to exhibit each of these patterns.

Accepted Answer

Answers will vary depending on

Question 7

Graph 8.1
Data plotted in the graph appear in the table below.    
-Refer to Graph 8.1.Which term most accurately describes the data points associated with Saturdays and Sundays?

Accepted Answer

A) nonbase data 
B) outliers 
C) seasons 
D) erroneous 
A) nonbase data 
B) outliers 
C) seasons 
D) erroneous

Question 8

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

Accepted Answer

A) The method for incorporating a trend into an exponentially smoothed forecast requires the estimation of three smoothing constants: one for the mean,one for the trend,and one for the error. 
B) The cumulative sum of forecast errors (CF
E) is useful in measuring the bias in a forecast. 
C) The standard deviation and the mean absolute deviation measure the dispersion of forecast errors. 
D) A tracking signal is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting has any built-in biases over a period of time. 
A) The method for incorporating a trend into an exponentially smoothed forecast requires the estimation of three smoothing constants: one for the mean,one for the trend,and one for the error. 
B) The cumulative sum of forecast errors (CF
E) is useful in measuring the bias in a forecast. 
C) The standard deviation and the mean absolute deviation measure the dispersion of forecast errors. 
D) A tracking signal is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting has any built-in biases over a period of time.

Question 9

Table 8.7
A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data.
  
-Use the information in Table 8.7.What is the forecast for period 9 using a naive forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) $3,728 
B) $3,803 
C) $4,442 
D) $4,085 
A) $3,728 
B) $3,803 
C) $4,442 
D) $4,085

Question 10

Market research is a systematic approach to determine consumer interest by gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

A forecasting system that brings the manufacturer and its customers together to provide input for forecasting is a(n):

Accepted Answer

A) nested system. 
B) harmonically balanced supply chain. 
C) iterative Delphi method system for the supply chain. 
D) collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment system. 
A) nested system. 
B) harmonically balanced supply chain. 
C) iterative Delphi method system for the supply chain. 
D) collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment system.

Question 12

Table 8.5  
-Use the information in Table 8.5.Using the exponential smoothing method,with alpha equal to 0.2,what is the forecasted demand for November? Use an initial value for the forecast equal to 277 units.

Accepted Answer

A) fewer than or equal to 260 units 
B) greater than 260 but fewer than or equal to 275 units 
C) greater than 275 but fewer than or equal to 285 units 
D) more than 285 units 
A) fewer than or equal to 260 units 
B) greater than 260 but fewer than or equal to 275 units 
C) greater than 275 but fewer than or equal to 285 units 
D) more than 285 units

Question 13

The number of #2 pencils the bookstore sells appears to be highly correlated with the number of student credit hours each semester.The bookstore manager wants to create a linear regression model to assist her in placing an appropriate order.In this scenario:

Accepted Answer

A) the dependent variable is student credit hours. 
B) there are two independent variables. 
C) there are two dependent variables. 
D) the independent variable is student credit hours. 
A) the dependent variable is student credit hours. 
B) there are two independent variables. 
C) there are two dependent variables. 
D) the independent variable is student credit hours.

Question 14

Better forecasting processes yield better forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

When the underlying mean of a time series is very stable and there are no trend,cyclical,or seasonal influences:

Accepted Answer

A) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
B) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 15. 
C) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should perform about the same as a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
D) an exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.30 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with α = 0.01. 
A) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
B) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 15. 
C) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should perform about the same as a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
D) an exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.30 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with α = 0.01.

Question 16

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when:

Accepted Answer

A) judgment and opinion are the only bases for making informed projections. 
B) a systematic approach to creating and testing hypotheses is needed and the data are usually gathered by sending a questionnaire to consumers. 
C) historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external or internal factors can be identified. 
D) historical data is available and the best basis for making projections is to use past demand patterns. 
A) judgment and opinion are the only bases for making informed projections. 
B) a systematic approach to creating and testing hypotheses is needed and the data are usually gathered by sending a questionnaire to consumers. 
C) historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external or internal factors can be identified. 
D) historical data is available and the best basis for making projections is to use past demand patterns.

Question 17

________ are produced by averaging independent forecasts based on different methods or different data,or both.

Accepted Answer

Combinatio

Question 18

A(n)________ forecast is a time-series method whereby the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the current period.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A(n)________ forecast is a time-series method whereby...

Question 19

Which statement about forecast accuracy is TRUE?

Accepted Answer

A) A manager must be careful not to "overfit" past data. 
B) The ultimate test of forecasting power is how well a model fits past data. 
C) The ultimate test of forecasting power is how a model fits holdout samples. 
D) The best technique in explaining past data is the best technique to predict the future. 
A) A manager must be careful not to "overfit" past data. 
B) The ultimate test of forecasting power is how well a model fits past data. 
C) The ultimate test of forecasting power is how a model fits holdout samples. 
D) The best technique in explaining past data is the best technique to predict the future.

Question 20

Variations in demand that cannot be predicted are said to be a(n)________ pattern.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Variations in demand that cannot be predicted...

Exam 8: Forecasting

The ________ is a process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.

Table 8.5 -Use the information in Table 8.5.Using the simple moving-average technique for the most recent three months,what will be the forecasted demand for November?

________ is a causal method of forecasting in which one variable is related to one or more variables by a linear equation.

Judgment methods of forecasting are quantitative methods that use historical data on independent variables to predict demand.

Graph 8.1 Data plotted in the graph appear in the table below. -Refer to Graph 8.1.Which term most accurately describes the data points associated with Saturdays and Sundays?

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

Table 8.7 A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data. -Use the information in Table 8.7.What is the forecast for period 9 using a naive forecast?

Market research is a systematic approach to determine consumer interest by gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.

A forecasting system that brings the manufacturer and its customers together to provide input for forecasting is a(n):

Table 8.5 -Use the information in Table 8.5.Using the exponential smoothing method,with alpha equal to 0.2,what is the forecasted demand for November? Use an initial value for the forecast equal to 277 units.

The number of #2 pencils the bookstore sells appears to be highly correlated with the number of student credit hours each semester.The bookstore manager wants to create a linear regression model to assist her in placing an appropriate order.In this scenario:

Better forecasting processes yield better forecasts.

When the underlying mean of a time series is very stable and there are no trend,cyclical,or seasonal influences:

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when:

________ are produced by averaging independent forecasts based on different methods or different data,or both.

A(n)________ forecast is a time-series method whereby the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the current period.

Which statement about forecast accuracy is TRUE?

Variations in demand that cannot be predicted are said to be a(n)________ pattern.

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