Exam 20: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

Mattress Sales Monthly mattress sales (in $1,000s)of a mattress store are shown below. Manth Jan. Feb. March April May June Sales 73 65 72 82 86 90 -{Monthly Mattress Sales Narrative} Compute the exponentially smoothed sales with w = 0.3 and w = 0.5.

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. 2011 270 2012 356 2013 398 2014 456 2015 358 2016 500 2017 410 2018 376 -{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 3-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The moving average for 2012 is ____________________.

Seasonal variations will not be present in a deseasonalized time series.

The most commonly used measures of forecast accuracy are the mean absolute deviation (MAD)and the sum of squares for forecast error (SSE).

The effect that business recessions and prosperity have on time series values is an example of the disaster component of a time series.

Daily Hoagie Sales The table below shows the number of hoagies sold daily during a four-week period at Hoagie Haven in Sutton,West Virginia. Week Day 1 2 3 4 Sunday 253 234 248 232 Monday 98 93 99 104 Tuesday 106 88 87 115 Wednesday 119 134 113 102 Thursday 138 123 130 118 Friday 201 215 218 205 Saturday 327 399 415 390 -{Daily Hoagie Sales Narrative} Calculate the seasonal (daily)indexes,using the trend line developed in the previous question.

In determining monthly seasonal indexes,the first step is to construct a centered moving average with a period of

To measure the seasonal variation,we compute seasonal ____________________,which gauge the degree to which the seasons differ from one another.

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. 2011 270 2012 356 2013 398 2014 456 2015 358 2016 500 2017 410 2018 376 -{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The moving average for 2016 is ____________________.

Daily Hoagie Sales The table below shows the number of hoagies sold daily during a four-week period at Hoagie Haven in Sutton,West Virginia. Week Day 1 2 3 4 Sunday 253 234 248 232 Monday 98 93 99 104 Tuesday 106 88 87 115 Wednesday 119 134 113 102 Thursday 138 123 130 118 Friday 201 215 218 205 Saturday 327 399 415 390 -{Daily Hoagie Sales Narrative} Use regression analysis to find the linear trend line.

The mean absolute deviation averages the absolute differences between the actual values of the time series at time t and the forecast values at time t + 1.

We calculate the five-period moving average for a time series for all time periods except the:

If there is no obvious trend or seasonality in the time series data,and we believe that there is a correlation between consecutive residuals,the autoregressive model may be most effective as a forecasting technique.

Which of the following statements is true?

The following are the values of a time series for the first four time periods: 1 2 3 4 23 25 28 24 Using a four-period moving average,the forecasted value for time period 5 is:

If we want to measure the seasonal variations on stock market performance by quarter,we would need:

The Pyramids of Giza The Pyramids of Giza is one of the most visited monuments in Egypt.The number of visitors per quarter has been recorded (in thousands)as shown in the accompanying table: Year Quarter 2000 2001 2002 2003 Winter 210 215 218 220 Spring 260 275 282 290 Summer 480 490 505 525 Fall 250 255 265 270 -{The Pyramids of Giza Narrative} Plot the time series.

A model that can be used to make predictions about long term future values of a time series is

The method of moving averages is used to:

If there is no obvious trend or seasonality and we believe that there is a correlation between consecutive residuals,the ____________________ model may be most effective.