Exam 12: Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making

Suppose that someone asks you to name the most popular television situation comedies, and you respond with the names of two shows that you regularly watch. This would be an example of

According to the discussion of logical reasoning,

You are trying to decide whether it will rain tomorrow, based on how many rainy days you remember from the last week. Which heuristic are you using?

According to the research on the confirmation bias,

Suppose that you see a male student on your campus who is wearing a suit and a tie. You conclude, "He must be a business major; he couldn't be a psychology major." However, your college has twice as many psychology majors as business majors. Your decision is apparently guided by

Suppose that you are trying to decide whether to take a course from Professor Jones or Professor Smith. Your friends have made many positive comments about both professors. You decide to take a course with Professor Jones, because today you heard more praise about Professor Jones. You are using

Which of the following students' statements best summarizes the research on the belief-bias effect?

Which of the following kinds of propositional reasoning is actually valid?

Psychologists have published an article which shows that many U.S. residents avoided flying in airplanes after the 2001 terrorist attacks. In fact, for several months afterwards, many people decided to drive, rather than fly. This phenomenon can best be explained by

In contrast to the representativeness heuristic, the availability heuristic

Suppose that a student named John is asked to judge how many students are enrolled in his introductory biology class. He replies, "about 100….well, maybe between about 90 and 110." Based on the discussion of confidence intervals, you predict that

Studies on the belief-bias effect conclude that

Suppose that you hear about a friend who graduated from your college in performing arts. In addition, suppose that you judge that she is more likely to be selling insurance and active in community theater than she is to be selling insurance. You have committed

At midterm, a college determines that 300 of its students are at risk for suspension this semester. Its tutoring center argues that, with a series of targeted emails encouraging students to come in for help, it can promise to certainly save 100 of those students from suspension. However, an external firm approaches the college with an offer to start a new program, with a 1/3 chance of preventing all 300 students from being suspended (and a 2/3 chance of saving none of these students). Under which circumstances is the college most likely to hire the external firm?

Suppose that you hear someone say, "I don't care how many days I am sick; I just care how many days I am well." Which of the following concepts from decision making would be most relevant to this statement?

According to the research on overconfidence,

When people draw a logical conclusion on the basis of whether it agrees with their everyday knowledge, they are demonstrating the

Because of a recently passed law, in Oregon, everyone who gets a driver's license or state identification card is automatically registered to vote; they must choose to "opt out" if they do not wish to be registered. In most states, a person must take steps to register to vote. In the future, if voting statistics show that significantly more Oregonians than other U.S. citizens are registered to vote, we might say that this is a good example of the _______ heuristic in action.

A group of fantasy football players are discussing the previous weekend's games, which included a season-ending injury to a top player. Kat is heard to say, "I knew that quarterback was going to get injured eventually. He can't get rid of the ball quickly enough, so he's always getting sacked." Kat is probably being influenced by

You estimate the number of soft drinks you'll need for the 4th of July picnic, based on the Christmas party consumption, but taking into account the fact that the weather will be warmer. Which heuristic does this example illustrate?