Question 1

The availability heuristic

Accepted Answer

A)  is a time-consuming strategy, so it is employed by participants only when a judgment requires special care. 
B)  leads us to overestimate frequency if category members are particularly difficult to remember. 
C)  leads us to underestimate frequency because there are usually more category members beyond the ones we recall. 
D)  often, but not always, leads to correct estimates because availability in memory is often correlated with frequency in the world. 
A)  is a time-consuming strategy, so it is employed by participants only when a judgment requires special care. 
B)  leads us to overestimate frequency if category members are particularly difficult to remember. 
C)  leads us to underestimate frequency because there are usually more category members beyond the ones we recall. 
D)  often, but not always, leads to correct estimates because availability in memory is often correlated with frequency in the world. D

Question 2

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

Accepted Answer

A)  The role of chance or accident is prominent in the problem under scrutiny. 
B)  The participant is scrutinizing a problem that is of great personal importance, so he or she is highly motivated to reason carefully and well. 
C)  The problem under scrutiny makes clear that the available evidence is a sample of data drawn from a larger set of potential observations. 
D)  The problem being considered involves a situation for which the participant has background beliefs emphasizing the role of luck or chance. 
A)  The role of chance or accident is prominent in the problem under scrutiny. 
B)  The participant is scrutinizing a problem that is of great personal importance, so he or she is highly motivated to reason carefully and well. 
C)  The problem under scrutiny makes clear that the available evidence is a sample of data drawn from a larger set of potential observations. 
D)  The problem being considered involves a situation for which the participant has background beliefs emphasizing the role of luck or chance. B

Question 3

Describe the availability and representativeness heuristics, and provide real-life examples of each heuristic leading to an error. Explain why we would rely on these heuristics, if errors can (and do) occur.

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. This heuristic is based on the idea that if something can be recalled easily, it must be important or common. For example, if someone is asked to estimate the likelihood of a plane crash, they might rely on recent news stories about plane crashes, leading them to overestimate the actual risk.

The representativeness heuristic is a mental shortcut that involves making a judgment about the probability of an event based on how similar it is to a prototype or stereotype. For example, if someone meets a person who fits their stereotype of a successful businessperson, they might assume that this person is indeed successful, even without any evidence to support that assumption.

We rely on these heuristics because they allow us to make quick decisions and judgments without having to carefully analyze every piece of information. In many cases, these heuristics can be accurate and efficient. However, errors can occur when the information that comes to mind easily (availability heuristic) or the prototype or stereotype (representativeness heuristic) does not accurately represent the true likelihood of an event or the true nature of a person or situation.

In real life, these heuristics can lead to errors in judgment and decision-making. For example, a person might overestimate the likelihood of a rare event, such as a shark attack, because of the vivid and memorable media coverage of such events (availability heuristic). Similarly, a hiring manager might make assumptions about a job candidate based on their resemblance to a successful person in their field, leading to biased hiring decisions (representativeness heuristic).

Overall, while these heuristics can be helpful in making quick decisions, it's important to be aware of their potential for error and to supplement them with more careful analysis when making important judgments or decisions.

Question 4

Dual-process models state that people

Accepted Answer

A)  have two ways of thinking: one is a fast and automatic process, whereas the other is slower but more accurate. 
B)  have two ways of thinking, one involved in heuristics and the other involved in anchoring. 
C)  have two ways of thinking, one involved in availability heuristics and the other involved in representative heuristics. 
D)  always take both the base rate and the diagnostic information into consideration when thinking about a situation. 
A)  have two ways of thinking: one is a fast and automatic process, whereas the other is slower but more accurate. 
B)  have two ways of thinking, one involved in heuristics and the other involved in anchoring. 
C)  have two ways of thinking, one involved in availability heuristics and the other involved in representative heuristics. 
D)  always take both the base rate and the diagnostic information into consideration when thinking about a situation.

Question 5

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

Accepted Answer

A)  dislike politicians. 
B)  really like politicians. 
C)  are a Republican. 
D)  are a Democrat. 
A)  dislike politicians. 
B)  really like politicians. 
C)  are a Republican. 
D)  are a Democrat.

Question 6

Molly is a Democrat, and she is certain that Republicans are evil and ruining the country. Discuss how tendencies like confirmation bias and belief perseverance contribute to her beliefs and her evaluation of new evidence.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Molly is a Democrat, and she is...

Question 7

"All rectangles have four sides. All squares have four sides. Therefore all rectangles are squares." This incorrect statement is an example of

Accepted Answer

A)  belief bias. 
B)  categorical syllogism. 
C)  belief perseverance. 
D)  deductive inference. 
A)  belief bias. 
B)  categorical syllogism. 
C)  belief perseverance. 
D)  deductive inference.

Question 8

Presumably, people would choose to use ________ when making judgments that are not particularly important and ________ for more crucial decisions, but evidence on the dual process system suggests this is NOT the case.

Accepted Answer

A)  Type 1; Type 2 
B)  Type 2; Type 1 
C)  heuristics; Type 1 
D)  heuristics; Type 2 
A)  Type 1; Type 2 
B)  Type 2; Type 1 
C)  heuristics; Type 1 
D)  heuristics; Type 2

Question 9

Participants tend NOT to use base-rate information if they are also given

Accepted Answer

A)  diagnostic information. 
B)  the prior probabilities. 
C)  statistical information. 
D)  information about the random device used to select the test case. 
A)  diagnostic information. 
B)  the prior probabilities. 
C)  statistical information. 
D)  information about the random device used to select the test case.

Question 10

People tend to be more alert and responsive to evidence that supports their preexisting notions and beliefs than to evidence that challenges them. This effect is called

Accepted Answer

A)  confirmation bias. 
B)  stereotypy. 
C)  base-rate error. 
D)  the covariation law. 
A)  confirmation bias. 
B)  stereotypy. 
C)  base-rate error. 
D)  the covariation law.

Question 11

Describe the four-card task. In your description, include the following components:
a. the basic task.
b. the type of logical argument that governs the task.
c. the typical performance rates and how those can be improved by changing components of the task.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Describe the four-card task. In your description,...

Question 12

Before reading about a depressed individual, participants are told that the case is not at all typical. This instruction will

Accepted Answer

A)  prevent participants from using the representativeness heuristic. 
B)  encourage participants to use the representativeness heuristic. 
C)  not affect participants' spontaneous use of the representativeness heuristic. 
D)  influence participants' willingness to draw conclusions from a single case. 
A)  prevent participants from using the representativeness heuristic. 
B)  encourage participants to use the representativeness heuristic. 
C)  not affect participants' spontaneous use of the representativeness heuristic. 
D)  influence participants' willingness to draw conclusions from a single case.

Question 13

The expected value of an option is dependent on the

Accepted Answer

A)  sum of the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome. 
B)  product of the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome. 
C)  difference between the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome. 
D)  difference between the pros and cons of an outcome. 
A)  sum of the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome. 
B)  product of the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome. 
C)  difference between the probability of an outcome and the utility of the outcome. 
D)  difference between the pros and cons of an outcome.

Question 14

Many of us overestimate our own popularity. This could be because we surround ourselves with people who like us, rather than with people who do not. Therefore, it is easier for us to think of the names of people who like us than it is to think of the names of our enemies. This overestimation of popularity seems to derive from using

Accepted Answer

A)  anchoring. 
B)  base rates. 
C)  the atmosphere pattern. 
D)  the availability heuristic. 
A)  anchoring. 
B)  base rates. 
C)  the atmosphere pattern. 
D)  the availability heuristic.

Question 15

Identify the premises in the following syllogism: All Dalmatians are dogs. Some Dalmatians have tails. Therefore, some dogs have tails.

Accepted Answer

A)  "All Dalmatians are dogs." 
B)  "All Dalmatians have tails." 
C)  "Some dogs have tails." 
D)  "Some dogs are Dalmations" 
A)  "All Dalmatians are dogs." 
B)  "All Dalmatians have tails." 
C)  "Some dogs have tails." 
D)  "Some dogs are Dalmations"

Question 16

Which of the following is an example of the gambler's fallacy?

Accepted Answer

A)  "I know the chances of winning the lottery are small, but someone has to win it and I could be the one!" 
B)  "I've gotten a low number the last eight times I've rolled the dice, so a high number is coming up soon!" 
C)  "There's an equal chance for any team to win the league's championship." 
D)  "The best strategy at the horse races is to bet in the same way as the crowd is betting." 
A)  "I know the chances of winning the lottery are small, but someone has to win it and I could be the one!" 
B)  "I've gotten a low number the last eight times I've rolled the dice, so a high number is coming up soon!" 
C)  "There's an equal chance for any team to win the league's championship." 
D)  "The best strategy at the horse races is to bet in the same way as the crowd is betting."

Question 17

Data format seems to play an important role in decision making because

Accepted Answer

A)  the correct format is more likely to trigger the necessary memory retrieval path. 
B)  certain formats, like frequencies, are more likely to trigger System 1 
C)  certain formats, like frequencies, are more likely to trigger System 2. 
D)  proportions are easiest to understand. 
A)  the correct format is more likely to trigger the necessary memory retrieval path. 
B)  certain formats, like frequencies, are more likely to trigger System 1 
C)  certain formats, like frequencies, are more likely to trigger System 2. 
D)  proportions are easiest to understand.

Question 18

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

Accepted Answer

A)  seem to understand and respect this law. 
B)  ignore this law even though they do follow other principles of statistics. 
C)  follow this law only if they have been trained in statistics. 
D)  ignore this law in some situations but respect it in other situations. 
A)  seem to understand and respect this law. 
B)  ignore this law even though they do follow other principles of statistics. 
C)  follow this law only if they have been trained in statistics. 
D)  ignore this law in some situations but respect it in other situations.

Question 19

Reasoning from "man who" arguments is usually inappropriate because generalizing from a single case is justified only

Accepted Answer

A)  for heterogeneous categories. 
B)  when the sample size is adequate. 
C)  when the base rates are unknown. 
D)  for truly homogeneous categories. 
A)  for heterogeneous categories. 
B)  when the sample size is adequate. 
C)  when the base rates are unknown. 
D)  for truly homogeneous categories.

Question 20

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is most likely to be true? You will

Accepted Answer

A)  use base rates in your decision. 
B)  ignore the base-rate information. 
C)  imply a cause-and-effect relationship between the pass rate and the student being judged. 
D)  say the chance of the student passing is 0.8%. 
A)  use base rates in your decision. 
B)  ignore the base-rate information. 
C)  imply a cause-and-effect relationship between the pass rate and the student being judged. 
D)  say the chance of the student passing is 0.8%.

The availability heuristic

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

Describe the availability and representativeness heuristics, and provide real-life examples of each heuristic leading to an error. Explain why we would rely on these heuristics, if errors can (and do) occur.

Dual-process models state that people

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

Molly is a Democrat, and she is certain that Republicans are evil and ruining the country. Discuss how tendencies like confirmation bias and belief perseverance contribute to her beliefs and her evaluation of new evidence.

"All rectangles have four sides. All squares have four sides. Therefore all rectangles are squares." This incorrect statement is an example of

Presumably, people would choose to use when making judgments that are not particularly important and for more crucial decisions, but evidence on the dual process system suggests this is NOT the case.

Participants tend NOT to use base-rate information if they are also given

People tend to be more alert and responsive to evidence that supports their preexisting notions and beliefs than to evidence that challenges them. This effect is called

Describe the four-card task. In your description, include the following components: a. the basic task. b. the type of logical argument that governs the task. c. the typical performance rates and how those can be improved by changing components of the task.

Before reading about a depressed individual, participants are told that the case is not at all typical. This instruction will

The expected value of an option is dependent on the

Identify the premises in the following syllogism: All Dalmatians are dogs. Some Dalmatians have tails. Therefore, some dogs have tails.

Which of the following is an example of the gambler's fallacy?

Data format seems to play an important role in decision making because

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

Reasoning from "man who" arguments is usually inappropriate because generalizing from a single case is justified only

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is most likely to be true? You will

The Science of the Mind

The Neural Basis for Cognition

Visual Perception

Recognizing Objects

Paying Attention

The Acquisition of Memories and the Working-Memory System

Interconnections Between Acquisition and Retrieval

Remembering Complex Events

Concepts and Generic Knowledge

Language

Visual Knowledge

Problem Solving and Intelligence

Conscious Thought, Unconscious Thought

Filters

Exam 12: Judgment and Reasoning

The availability heuristic

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

Describe the availability and representativeness heuristics, and provide real-life examples of each heuristic leading to an error. Explain why we would rely on these heuristics, if errors can (and do) occur.

Dual-process models state that people

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

Molly is a Democrat, and she is certain that Republicans are evil and ruining the country. Discuss how tendencies like confirmation bias and belief perseverance contribute to her beliefs and her evaluation of new evidence.

"All rectangles have four sides. All squares have four sides. Therefore all rectangles are squares." This incorrect statement is an example of

Presumably, people would choose to use ________ when making judgments that are not particularly important and ________ for more crucial decisions, but evidence on the dual process system suggests this is NOT the case.

Participants tend NOT to use base-rate information if they are also given

People tend to be more alert and responsive to evidence that supports their preexisting notions and beliefs than to evidence that challenges them. This effect is called

Describe the four-card task. In your description, include the following components: a. the basic task. b. the type of logical argument that governs the task. c. the typical performance rates and how those can be improved by changing components of the task.

Before reading about a depressed individual, participants are told that the case is not at all typical. This instruction will

The expected value of an option is dependent on the

Identify the premises in the following syllogism: All Dalmatians are dogs. Some Dalmatians have tails. Therefore, some dogs have tails.

Which of the following is an example of the gambler's fallacy?

Data format seems to play an important role in decision making because

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

Reasoning from "man who" arguments is usually inappropriate because generalizing from a single case is justified only

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is most likely to be true? You will

The Science of the Mind

The Neural Basis for Cognition

Visual Perception

Recognizing Objects

Paying Attention

The Acquisition of Memories and the Working-Memory System

Interconnections Between Acquisition and Retrieval

Remembering Complex Events

Concepts and Generic Knowledge

Language

Visual Knowledge

Problem Solving and Intelligence

Conscious Thought, Unconscious Thought

Filters

Presumably, people would choose to use when making judgments that are not particularly important and for more crucial decisions, but evidence on the dual process system suggests this is NOT the case.