Exam 12: Simulation

Attendees at the National Management Science Society (NMSS) Conference register by first standing in line to pay their fees. They then proceed to a designated line based on the first letter of their last name to collect their conference materials. ​ At the conference, it is planned to have three different parallel lines for the collection of materials: one each for people whose last names begin with A-H, I-Q, and R-Z respectively. ​ During each minute of the morning registration period it is anticipated that attendees will arrive to pay their fees according to the following distribution: ​ ​ ​The time to pay one's fees is either one minute or two minutes depending upon whether one uses a check or credit card. The probability of a one-minute time is .60. ​ After paying his fees, an attendee then goes to the correct line for the conference materials. At this year's conference 35% of the attendees have last names beginning with A-H, 36% with last names beginning with I-Q, and 29% with last names beginning with R-Z. The time required to pick up conference materials is fixed at 2 minutes. ​ a. Simulate the waiting line for the first 10 minutes of the morning registration that begins at 8:00 AM. Use the following random numbers to generate: ​ Number of arrivals in any given minute: 71, 95, 83, 44, 34, 49, 88, 56, 05, 39 Registration fee service time: 51, 79, 09, 67, 15, 58, 04, 78, 30, 56 First letter of the last name: 15, 08, 19, 45, 76, 42, 38, 47, 82, 37 ​ b. What is the average size of the waiting line to pay fees (not including the person being served), and the average customer waiting time to pay fees based on this simulation?

Each simulation run provides only a sample of how the real system will operate.

Estimates of the financial information for a new product show the following information: ​ Use the random numbers .51, .97, .58, .22, and .16 to simulate five trials. What is the net profit for each trial?

Which of the following statements is INCORRECT regarding the advantages of simulation?

In comparing different policies using simulation, one should use the same set of random numbers whenever possible.

Computer-generated random numbers are normally distributed.

​How are both analysts and managers involved in the validation process?

Simulation is an excellent technique to use when a situation is too complicated to use standard analytical procedures.

Computer-generated random numbers are normally distributed over the interval from 0 to 1.

A discrete-event simulation reviews the status of the system periodically, whether or not an event occurs.

In a Monte Carlo simulation, each simulation trial is dependent upon the result of a previous trial.

​Why is a flowchart useful in simulation?

The number of units expected to be sold is uniformly distributed between 300 and 500. If r is a random number between 0 and 1, then the proper expression for sales is

A simulation model provides a convenient experimental laboratory for the real system.

A value for probabilistic input from a discrete probability distribution

When events occur at discrete points in time

A simulation model uses the mathematical expressions and logical relationships of the

A quantity that is difficult to measure with certainty is called a

​A graphical tool that helps describe the logic of the simulation model is a

Simulation models that must take into account how the system changes or evolves over time are referred to as dynamic simulation models.