Question 1

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except

Accepted Answer

A)  They generally involve the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts. 
B)  They assume the pattern of the past will continue into the future. 
C)  They are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not applicable. 
D)  They are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not available. 
A)  They generally involve the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts. 
B)  They assume the pattern of the past will continue into the future. 
C)  They are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not applicable. 
D)  They are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not available. B

Question 2

Gradual shifting of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time is called

Accepted Answer

A)  periodicity. 
B)  cycles. 
C)  seasonality. 
D)  trend. 
A)  periodicity. 
B)  cycles. 
C)  seasonality. 
D)  trend. D

Question 3

A trend line for the weekly attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by
​   ​
How many guests would you expect in week 20?

Accepted Answer

The answer of A trend line for the weekly attendance...

Question 4

An alpha (α) value of .2 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden drop in demand than will an α equal to .4.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

Accepted Answer

A)  a moving average 
B)  exponential smoothing 
C)  regression analysis 
D)  a weighted moving average 
A)  a moving average 
B)  exponential smoothing 
C)  regression analysis 
D)  a weighted moving average

Question 7

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth out

Accepted Answer

A)  the random fluctuations. 
B)  wide seasonal variations. 
C)  significant trend effects. 
D)  long range forecasts. 
A)  the random fluctuations. 
B)  wide seasonal variations. 
C)  significant trend effects. 
D)  long range forecasts.

Question 8

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average?

Accepted Answer

A)  α = .2 
B)  α = .25 
C)  α = .75 
D)  α = .8 
A)  α = .2 
B)  α = .25 
C)  α = .75 
D)  α = .8

Question 9

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Accepted Answer

A)  α times (the demand forecast for time period 8) 
B)  α times (the error in the demand forecast for time period 9) 
C)  α times (the observed demand in time period 9) 
D)  α times (the demand forecast for time period 9) 
A)  α times (the demand forecast for time period 8) 
B)  α times (the error in the demand forecast for time period 9) 
C)  α times (the observed demand in time period 9) 
D)  α times (the demand forecast for time period 9)

Question 10

Qualitative forecasting techniques should be applied in situations where time series data exists, but where conditions are expected to change.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

The number of properties newly listed with a real estate agency in each quarter over the last four years is given below. Assume the time series has seasonality without trend.
​​   ​ 
a. Develop the optimization model that finds the estimated regression equation that minimize the sum of squared error.
b. Solve for the estimated regression equation.
c. Forecast the four quarters of Year 5.

Accepted Answer

a.Min {(73 - Ȳ₁)² + (89 - Ȳ₂)² + (123 - Ȳ₃)² +

Question 12

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha (α) value should be used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Use a four-period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball games. Historical records show
5346, 7812, 6513, 5783, 5982, 6519, 6283, 5577, 6712, 7345

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH MOVING AVERAG

Question 14

To select a value for α for exponential smoothing

Accepted Answer

A)  use a small α when the series varies substantially. 
B)  use a large α when the series has little random variability. 
C)  use a value between 0 and 1 
D)  All of the alternatives are true. 
A)  use a small α when the series varies substantially. 
B)  use a large α when the series has little random variability. 
C)  use a value between 0 and 1 
D)  All of the alternatives are true.

Question 15

Discuss the effects of using a small smoothing constant value and when it is most appropriate to use. Then, do the
same for a large smoothing constant value.​

Accepted Answer

Using a small smoothing constant value i

Question 16

​In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, relative measures such as mean absolute error (MAE) are preferred.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

A customer comment phone line is staffed from 8:00
a.Develop the optimization model that finds the estimated regression equation that minimize the sum of squared error.
a.m. to 4:30 p.m. five days a week. Records are available that show the number of calls received every day for the last five weeks.   ​ 
b.Solve for the estimated regression equation.
c.Forecast the five days of week 6.

Accepted Answer

a.Min {(28 - Ȳ₁)² + (12 - Ȳ₂)² + (16 - Ȳ₃)² +

Question 19

The average SAT verbal score for students from one high school over the last ten exams is
​
508, 490, 502, 505, 493, 506, 492, 490, 503, 501
​
Do the scores support an increasing or a decreasing trend?

Accepted Answer

FORECASTING WITH LINEAR TREND
**********

Question 20

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal pattern is

Accepted Answer

A)  moving average 
B)  mean squared error 
C)  mean average error 
D)  qualitative forecasting 
A)  moving average 
B)  mean squared error 
C)  mean average error 
D)  qualitative forecasting

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except

Gradual shifting of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time is called

A trend line for the weekly attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by How many guests would you expect in week 20?

An alpha (α) value of .2 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden drop in demand than will an α equal to .4.

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth out

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average?

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Qualitative forecasting techniques should be applied in situations where time series data exists, but where conditions are expected to change.

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha (α) value should be used.

Use a four-period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball games. Historical records show 5346, 7812, 6513, 5783, 5982, 6519, 6283, 5577, 6712, 7345

To select a value for α for exponential smoothing

Discuss the effects of using a small smoothing constant value and when it is most appropriate to use. Then, do the same for a large smoothing constant value.

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, relative measures such as mean absolute error (MAE) are preferred.

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

The average SAT verbal score for students from one high school over the last ten exams is 508, 490, 502, 505, 493, 506, 492, 490, 503, 501 Do the scores support an increasing or a decreasing trend?

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal pattern is

Introduction

An Introduction to Linear Programming

Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications in Marketing, Finance, and Operations Management

Advanced Linear Programming Applications

Distribution and Network Models

Integer Linear Programming

Nonlinear Optimization Models

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Decision Analysis

Multicriteria Decisions

Markov Processes

Linear Programming: Simplex Method

Simplex-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Duality

Solution Procedures for Transportation and Assignment Problems

Minimal Spanning Tree

Dynamic Programming

Filters

Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except

Gradual shifting of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time is called

A trend line for the weekly attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by ​ ​ How many guests would you expect in week 20?

An alpha (α) value of .2 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden drop in demand than will an α equal to .4.

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth out

Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average?

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Qualitative forecasting techniques should be applied in situations where time series data exists, but where conditions are expected to change.

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha (α) value should be used.

Use a four-period moving average to forecast attendance at baseball games. Historical records show 5346, 7812, 6513, 5783, 5982, 6519, 6283, 5577, 6712, 7345

To select a value for α for exponential smoothing

Discuss the effects of using a small smoothing constant value and when it is most appropriate to use. Then, do the same for a large smoothing constant value.​

​In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, relative measures such as mean absolute error (MAE) are preferred.

Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line lasting less than one year can be attributed to the cyclical component of the time series.

The average SAT verbal score for students from one high school over the last ten exams is ​ 508, 490, 502, 505, 493, 506, 492, 490, 503, 501 ​ Do the scores support an increasing or a decreasing trend?

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal pattern is

Introduction

An Introduction to Linear Programming

Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution

Linear Programming Applications in Marketing, Finance, and Operations Management

Advanced Linear Programming Applications

Distribution and Network Models

Integer Linear Programming

Nonlinear Optimization Models

Project Scheduling: Pertcpm

Inventory Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Decision Analysis

Multicriteria Decisions

Markov Processes

Linear Programming: Simplex Method

Simplex-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Duality

Solution Procedures for Transportation and Assignment Problems

Minimal Spanning Tree

Dynamic Programming

Filters

A trend line for the weekly attendance at a restaurant's Sunday brunch is given by How many guests would you expect in week 20?

Discuss the effects of using a small smoothing constant value and when it is most appropriate to use. Then, do the same for a large smoothing constant value.

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, relative measures such as mean absolute error (MAE) are preferred.

The average SAT verbal score for students from one high school over the last ten exams is 508, 490, 502, 505, 493, 506, 492, 490, 503, 501 Do the scores support an increasing or a decreasing trend?