Exam 16: Time Series and Forecasting

i. In the linear trend equation, t is any value that corresponds with a time period, i.e., month or quarter. ii. The least squares method of computing the equation for a straight line going through the data of interest gives the "best fitting" line. Iii) If the sales, production or other data over a period of time tend to approximate a straight-line Trend, the equation developed by the least squares method cannot be used to forecast sales for a future period.

Which one of the following is not a component of a time series?

i. Using the ratio-to-moving-average method, dividing the actual sales for a month by the typical seasonal for that month results in a figure that includes only trend, cycle and irregular fluctuations. This procedure is called deseasonalizing the sales. Ii) The reason for deseasonalizing a sales series is to remove trend and cyclical fluctuations so that we can study seasonal fluctuations. Iii) Knowing the seasonal pattern in the form of indexes allows the retailer to deseasonalize sales.

How will data which increases (or decreases) by equal percents appear when plotted on graph paper having an arithmetic scale?

Listed below is the net sales in $ million for Home Depot Inc., and its subsidiaries from 1994 to 2003. Using the printout below, what are the estimated sales for 2005?

The Westberg Electric Company sells electric motors. The monthly trend equation, based on four years of monthly data, is Y' = 4.4 + 0.5t. The seasonal factor for the month of May is 85. Determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for April of the fifth year.

What is Log10 of the forecast for year 9?

The Westberg Electric Company sells electric motors. The monthly trend equation, based on four years of monthly data, is Y' = 4.4 + 0.5t. The seasonal factor for the month of March is 100. Determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for March of the fifth year.

i. In a time series analysis, the letter "a" in the linear trend equation, is the value of when t = 0. ii. In the linear trend equation, t is any value that corresponds with a time period, i.e., month or quarter. Iii) If the sales, production or other data over a period of time tend to approximate a straight-line Trend, the equation developed by the least squares method cannot be used to forecast sales for a future period.

What is variation within a year, such as high sales at Christmas and Easter and low sales in January, called?

The table below shows the sales for a plastics manufacturer recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided). To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data) What are deseasonalized sales for quarter 1?

In the calculation of 4-quarter seasonal indices the total of the quarterly means will be:

If a quarterly seasonal index is 0.56, it implies that:

i. One component of a time series is the secular trend that is the smooth movement of a series over a short period of time, such as a few months or quarters. ii. Many business and economic time series have a recurring seasonal pattern. Iii) One component of a time series is cyclical variation. An example of cyclical variation is the business cycle that consists of periods of prosperity followed by periods of recession, depression, and recovery.

The merchants in Morris, Manitoba suffered flood damage in May 1997. Stores were closed for remodeling nearly two months. What is this type of variation in sales called?

For a three-year moving average, how many values will be lost at the beginning and end of the time series?

The Westberg Electric Company sells electric motors. The monthly trend equation, based on four years of monthly data, is Y' = 4.4 + 0.5t. The seasonal factor for the month of April is 98. Determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for April of the fifth year.

For an annual time series extending from 1993 through 2001, how many years would be lost in a five- year moving average?

What is the forecast for year 9?

Listed below is the net sales in $ million for Home Depot Inc., and its subsidiaries from 1994 to 2003. Using the printout below, what are the estimated sales for 2010?