Exam 20: Probability and Combinatorics

SCENARIO 4-15 At a Texas college, 60% of the students are from the southern part of the state, 30% are from the northern part of the state, and the remaining 10% are from out-of-state. All students must take and pass an Entry Level Math (ELM) test. 60% of the southerners have passed the ELM, 70% of the northerners have passed the ELM, and 90% of the out-of-staters have passed the ELM. -Referring to Scenario 4-15, if a randomly selected student has not passed the ELM, the probability the student is not from northern Texas is ________.

SCENARIO 11-13 An important factor in selecting database software is the time required for a user to learn how to use the system. To evaluate three potential brands (A, B and C) of database software, a company designed a test involving five different employees. To reduce variability due to differences among employees, each of the five employees is trained on each of the three different brands. The amount of time (in hours) needed to learn each of the three different brands is given below: Software Operator A B C 1 17 17 23 2 18 17 23 3 14 13 19 4 12 11 18 5 19 17 22 Mean 16 15 21 $\text { Below is the Excel output for the randomized block design: }$ Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value Fcrit Rows 84.66667 4 21.16667 50.8 9.98-06 3.837853 Columns 103.3333 2 51.66667 124 9.54-07 4.45897 Error 3.333333 8 0.416667 Total 191.3333 14 -Referring to Scenario 11-13, there is evidence of a significant difference in the mean amount of time needed to learn Brand B and Brand C at the 5% level of significance?

SCENARIO 12-20 The director of the MBA program of a state university wanted to know if a one week orientation would change the proportion among potential incoming students who would perceive the program as being good. Given below is the result from 215 students' view of the program before and after the orientation. -Referring to Scenario 12-20, what should be the director's conclusion?

SCENARIO 11-13 An important factor in selecting database software is the time required for a user to learn how to use the system. To evaluate three potential brands (A, B and C) of database software, a company designed a test involving five different employees. To reduce variability due to differences among employees, each of the five employees is trained on each of the three different brands. The amount of time (in hours) needed to learn each of the three different brands is given below: Software Operator A B C 1 17 17 23 2 18 17 23 3 14 13 19 4 12 11 18 5 19 17 22 Mean 16 15 21 $\text { Below is the Excel output for the randomized block design: }$ Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value Fcrit Rows 84.66667 4 21.16667 50.8 9.98-06 3.837853 Columns 103.3333 2 51.66667 124 9.54-07 4.45897 Error 3.333333 8 0.416667 Total 191.3333 14 -Referring to Scenario 11-13, what is the estimated relative efficiency?

SCENARIO 5-12 Two different designs on a new line of winter jackets for the coming winter are available for your manufacturing plants. Your profit (in thousands of dollars) will depend on the taste of the consumers when winter arrives. The probability of the three possible different tastes of the consumers and the corresponding profits are presented in the following table. Probability Taste Design A Design B 0.2 more conservative 180 520 0.5 no change 230 310 0.3 more liberal 350 270 -Referring to Scenario 5-12, if you decide to choose Design A for 30% of the production lines and Design B for the remaining production lines, what is the coefficient of variation of your investment?

SCENARIO 11-11 An agronomist wants to compare the crop yield of 3 varieties of chickpea seeds. She plants all 3 varieties of the seeds on each of 5 different patches of fields. She then measures the crop yield in bushels per acre. Treating this as a randomized block design, the results are presented in the table that follows. 1 11.1 19.0 14.6 2 13.5 18.0 15.7 3 15.3 19.8 16.8 4 14.6 19.6 16.7 5 9.8 16.6 15.2 -Referring to Scenario 11-11, the relative efficiency means that 2.47 times as many observations in each variety group would be needed in a one-way ANOVA design as compared to the randomized block design in order to obtain the same precision for comparison of the variety means.

SCENARIO 8-17 A wealthy real estate investor wants to decide whether it is a good investment to build a high-end shopping complex in a suburban county in Chicago. His main concern is the total market value of the 3,605 houses in the suburban county. He commissioned a statistical consulting group to take a sample of 200 houses and obtained a sample mean market price of $225,000 and a sample standard deviation of $38,700. The consulting group also found out that the mean differences between market prices and appraised prices was $125,000 with a standard deviation of $3,400. Also the proportion of houses in the sample that are appraised for higher than the market prices is 0.24. -Referring to Scenario 8-17, what will be the 90% confidence interval for the population proportion of houses that will be appraised for higher than the market prices?

There are only 4 empty rooms available in a student dormitory for eleven new freshmen. All the rooms are considered as homogenous so that it does not matter who is being assigned to which room. How many different ways can those 4 empty rooms be filled one student per room?

SCENARIO 11-11 An agronomist wants to compare the crop yield of 3 varieties of chickpea seeds. She plants all 3 varieties of the seeds on each of 5 different patches of fields. She then measures the crop yield in bushels per acre. Treating this as a randomized block design, the results are presented in the table that follows. 1 11.1 19.0 14.6 2 13.5 18.0 15.7 3 15.3 19.8 16.8 4 14.6 19.6 16.7 5 9.8 16.6 15.2 -Referring to Scenario 11-11, the among-block variation or SSBL is __________.

As a general rule, one can use the normal distribution to approximate a binomial distribution whenever nπ is at least 5.

The interval between patients arriving at an outpatient clinic follows an exponential distribution at a rate of 15 patients per hour. What is the probability that a randomly chosen arrival to be more than 5 minutes?

SCENARIO 8-13 The president of a university is concerned that illicit drug use on campus is higher than the 5% targeted level. A random sample of 250 students from a population of 2,000 revealed that 7 of them had used illicit drugs during the last 12 months. -Referring to Scenario 8-13, the president can be 90% confident that no more than 5% of the students at the university had used illicit drugs during the last 12 months.

SCENARIO 11-11 An agronomist wants to compare the crop yield of 3 varieties of chickpea seeds. She plants all 3 varieties of the seeds on each of 5 different patches of fields. She then measures the crop yield in bushels per acre. Treating this as a randomized block design, the results are presented in the table that follows. 1 11.1 19.0 14.6 2 13.5 18.0 15.7 3 15.3 19.8 16.8 4 14.6 19.6 16.7 5 9.8 16.6 15.2 -Referring to Scenario 11-11, based on the Tukey multiple comparison procedure with an overall level of significance of 0.01, the agronomist would decide that there is a significant difference between the crop yield of Walsh and Trevor seeds.

SCENARIO 11-11 An agronomist wants to compare the crop yield of 3 varieties of chickpea seeds. She plants all 3 varieties of the seeds on each of 5 different patches of fields. She then measures the crop yield in bushels per acre. Treating this as a randomized block design, the results are presented in the table that follows. 1 11.1 19.0 14.6 2 13.5 18.0 15.7 3 15.3 19.8 16.8 4 14.6 19.6 16.7 5 9.8 16.6 15.2 -Referring to Scenario 11-11, what is the value of the test statistic for the randomized block F test for the difference in the means?

Which of the following is not an element of descriptive statistical problems?

SCENARIO 5-13 From an inventory of 48 new cars being shipped to local dealerships, corporate reports indicate that 12 have defective radios installed. -Referring to Scenario 5-13, what is the probability out of the 8 new cars it just received that, when each is tested, at most three of the cars have non-defective radios?

SCENARIO 11-13 An important factor in selecting database software is the time required for a user to learn how to use the system. To evaluate three potential brands (A, B and C) of database software, a company designed a test involving five different employees. To reduce variability due to differences among employees, each of the five employees is trained on each of the three different brands. The amount of time (in hours) needed to learn each of the three different brands is given below: Software Operator A B C 1 17 17 23 2 18 17 23 3 14 13 19 4 12 11 18 5 19 17 22 Mean 16 15 21 $\text { Below is the Excel output for the randomized block design: }$ Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value Fcrit Rows 84.66667 4 21.16667 50.8 9.98-06 3.837853 Columns 103.3333 2 51.66667 124 9.54-07 4.45897 Error 3.333333 8 0.416667 Total 191.3333 14 -Referring to Scenario 11-13, what is the upper-tail critical value of the Studentized range distribution for the Tukey multiple comparison procedure at the 5% level of significance?

SCENARIO 16-17 Given below are the prices of a basket of four food items from 2008 to 2012. Year Wheat( \/ Bushel) Corn( \/ Bushel) Soybeans( \/ Bushel) Milk( \/ hundredweight) 2008 4.25 3.71 7.41 15.03 2009 3.43 2.7 7.55 13.63 2010 2.63 2.3 6.05 15.18 2011 2.11 1.97 4.68 14.72 2012 2.16 1.9 4.81 12.32 -Referring to Scenario 16-17, what is the Paasche price index for the basket of four food items in 2010 that consisted of 50 bushels of wheat, 30 bushels of corn, 40 bushels of soybeans and 80 hundredweight of milk in 2010 using 2008 as the base year?

SCENARIO 8-16 A random sample of 100 stores from a large chain of 500 garden supply stores was selected to determine the mean number of lawnmowers sold at an end-of-season clearance sale. The sample results indicated a mean of 6 and a standard deviation of 2 lawnmowers sold. A 95% confidence interval (5.623 to 6.377) was established based on these results. -Referring to Scenario 8-16, we do not know for sure whether the true population mean is between 5.623 and 6.377 lawnmowers sold.

The interval between patients arriving at an outpatient clinic follows an exponential distribution at a rate of 1 patient per hour. What is the probability that a randomly chosen arrival to be more than 2.5 hours?