Exam 4: Introduction to Probability

The following probability distribution was subjectively assessed for the number of sales a salesperson would make if he or she made five sales calls in one day. When the salesperson makes a sale, there are three possible sales levels: large, medium, and small. The probability of a large sale is 0.20 and the chance of a medium sale is 0.60. The probability on a given day that the salesperson will make one sale and that it is medium is 0.09.

What method of probability assessment would most likely be used to assess the probability that a customer will return a purchase for a refund?

The URS construction company has submitted two bids, one to build a large hotel in London and the other to build a commercial office building in New York City. The company believes it has a 40% chance of winning the hotel bid and a 25% chance of winning the office building bid. The company also believes that winning the hotel bid is independent of winning the office building bid. What is the probability the company will win at least one contract?

A consumer products company is planning to introduce a new product. The method that is least likely to be used to assess the probability of the product being successful is:

The accountant for a large U.S. company is interested in finding the probability that an account will have an incorrect balance due to being overstated or being understated. To find this probability, which probability rule is she likely to use?

If a six-sided die is tossed two times and "4" shows up both times, the probability of "4" on the third trial is much larger than any other outcome.

If two events are independent, then

A study was recently done in which 500 people were asked to indicate their preferences for one of three products. The following table shows the breakdown of the responses by gender of the respondents. Suppose one person is randomly chosen. Based on this data, what is the probability that the person chosen is a female who prefers product C?

At gambling casinos all over the country, a popular dice game is called craps. The probability of a player winning at this game can be assessed using:

Micron Technology has sales offices located in four cities: Dallas, Seattle, Boston, and Los Angeles. An analysis of the company's accounts receivables reveals the number of overdue invoices by days, as shown here. Assume the invoices are stored and managed from a central database. What is the probability that a randomly selected invoice from the database is between 30 and 90 days overdue?

The results of a census of 2,500 employees of a mid-sized company with 401(k) retirement accounts are as follows: Suppose researchers are going to sample employees from the company for further study. Based on the relative frequency assessment method, what is the probability that a randomly selected employee will have a 401(k) account balance less than $150,000?

A study was recently done in which 500 people were asked to indicate their preferences for one of three products. The following table shows the breakdown of the responses by gender of the respondents. If the people conducting the study wish to assess the probability that product A will be preferred by members of the target population, the method of assessment to be used would most likely be:

Explain why it is possible for two managers to assess different values for the probability that a supplier will fail to deliver a shipment on time.

A New Jersey company relies on a steady supply of power to keep its manufacturing going. Recently at a planning meeting, the general manager stated that the chance of a rolling blackout affecting production is 0.15. She most likely made this assessment using subjective probability assessment.

Cross County Bicycles makes two mountain bike models that each come in three colors. The following table shows the production volumes for last week: What is the probability that the product manufactured is a YZ-99?

The Jack In The Box franchise in Bangor, Maine, has determined that the chance a customer will order a soft drink is 0.90. The probability that a customer will order a hamburger is 0.60. The probability that a customer will order french fries is 0.50. If a customer places an order, what is the probability that the order will include a soft drink and no fries if these two events are independent?

Long-time friends, Pat and Tom, agree on many things, but not the outcome of the American League pennant race and the World Series. Pat is originally from Boston, and Tom is from New York. They have a steak dinner bet on next year's race, with Pat betting on the Red Sox and Tom on the Yankees. Both are convinced they will win. What probability assessment technique is being used by the two friends?

If you were planning to take a small group out to dinner on a Thursday evening and you were considering whether to call ahead for a reservation, the method of probability assessment you would most likely use to assess the chances of being able to get in for dinner without having a reservation would be subjective assessment.

The Vintage Clothing Company has three retail locations, code-named A, B, and C. The following table illustrates the percentage of total company sales at each store and also the percentage of customers at that store who make purchases with credit cards: Based on this information, given that a customer has used a purchase method other than a credit card, the sale was least likely made at store A.

Mutually exclusive means that the occurrence of event A has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of event B, and independent means the occurrence of event A prevents the occurrence of event B.