Exam 12: Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making

Which of the following students provides the most accurate information about the research on overconfidence?

In the hindsight bias,

Your text discussed a classic study in which people were asked which cards they would need to turn over in order to find out whether a rule about the letters and numbers on the cards was true or false. What did the study show?

What is one of the difficulties with the availability heuristic?

A professor knows that if it is raining outside, the window of her office will be wet. She looks at her window and notices that it is wet. She, therefore, concludes that it must be raining outside. Which kind of reasoning is she using?

You decide that a bearded professor wearing a rumpled sports coat is a member of the art faculty, rather than the business school faculty (which actually has more members) because he looks like an artist. What judgment error have you committed?

Chapter 12, on reasoning and decision making, emphasizes that we frequently endorse our current hypotheses and thoughts, rather than questioning them. Which of the following topics is least likely to show an overemphasis on our current hypotheses?

Which of the following heuristics is most likely to produce a correct decision?

According to the discussion in Chapter 12, the belief-bias effect

According to the discussion of sample size and representativeness,

Theme 2 argues that people are usually fairly accurate on cognitive tasks. How does this theme apply to deductive reasoning tasks?

Which of the following kinds of propositional reasoning is actually valid?

When people commit the base-rate fallacy, they often

Suppose that a doctor decides that a patient has a cold, rather than a much rarer disease, Disease X. She decides the disease is a cold, even though one symptom is fairly typical of Disease X and fairly atypical of a cold. This doctor is

A family has three children, all of whom are boys. Everyone predicts that their next child will be a girl. Which heuristic does this demonstrate?

When we make judgments based on the ease with which examples come to mind, we are using

Suppose that Kaitlin has a satisficing decision-making style, and she is shopping for a winter jacket. She would be most likely to

According to the research on overconfidence,

The research on the framing effect suggests that

When people draw a logical conclusion on the basis of whether it agrees with their everyday knowledge, they are demonstrating the