Exam 10: Demand Forecasting: Building the Foundation for Resource Planning

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A time series is believed to consist of random fluctuation, but no evidence of a trend or seasonality is present. Which forecasting tool would be most appropriate?

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If the MFE had a negative sign

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When using causal forecasting models, the appearances of a relationship between demand and an external variable may be due to correlation.

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Using simple exponential smoothing, if we want the forecast to be very responsive to recent demand, the value of alpha should be:

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All plans have a direct impact on net income through net sales.

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In some cases, random fluctuation can be significant enough to make it difficult to see trend or seasonality.

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A time series is

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More changes in the service sector are sure to come as a result of product innovation and service obsolescence.

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Match these items. -Cycle

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The techniques used to guide ERP system design are considered to be ____ _____ techniques.

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Match these items. -Mean squared error

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Which of the following statements is accurate regarding simple exponential smoothing?

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Compute the MAD and MFE for the following data: Period Demand Forecast 1 120 105 2 106 117 3 140 131 4 130 138 5 145 140

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If the ____ value was equal to ____, the simple exponential smoothing forecast would equal to the naive forecast.

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Forecasts should be ____ to changes in demand when changes in demand are not indicative of anything in the future.

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When using a simple moving average to forecast demand, the responsiveness will be increased:

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ERP systems are designed to integrate all aspects of an organization through one ______ _________.

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Forecast error

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When using simple linear regression as a causal forecasting tool :

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A toy manufacturer wants to predict quarterly demand for a certain product line for periods 13 and 14, which happen to be the second and third quarters of a particular year. The series consists of both trend and seasonality. The trend portion of demand is projected using the equation g t= 130 + 7.8t. Quarterly seasonal indices are Q1= 1.10, Q2= 1.20, Q3= 0.95, and Q4= 0.75. Use this information to predict demand for periods 13 and 14.

(Short Answer)
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