Exam 26: Simulation

Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation. Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 1 01-20 2 21-25 3 26-50 4 51-80 5 81-00

Simulation is used for several reasons, including

Virtually all large-scale simulations take place on computers, but small simulations can be conducted by hand.

Create a distribution of random numbers that would result in average demand per period for a Monte Carlo simulation that is equivalent to the expected demand per period using the data given by the chart below. Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 .1 1 .15 2 .4 3 .15 4 .2

Monte Carlo simulations applied to queuing problems have what advantage?

Which of the following is not a step in running a Monte Carlo simulation?

There are four possible outcomes for a Monte Carlo simulation variable (A, B, C, and D). The random numbers 02, 22, 53, and 74 correspond to the variables __________ respectively if each possible outcome has an equivalent chance of occurring.

Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation. The expected demand is 3.52. Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 .1 2 11-23 3 .5 4 86-00

Which of the following is true regarding simulation?

Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation. Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 .1 1 .15 2 .4 3 .15 4 .2

From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.25, and P(demand = 1) is 0.30. The random number intervals for this distribution beginning with 01 are

One of the disadvantages of simulation is that it

Suppose the following random numbers (1, 34, 22, 78, 56, 98, 00, 82) were selected during a Monte Carlo simulation that was based on the chart below. What was the average demand per period for the simulation? What is the expected demand? Demand Probability Cumulative Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 .1 1 .15 2 .4 3 .15 4 .2

One of the disadvantages of simulation is that it

Identify, in order, the five steps required to implement the Monte Carlo simulation technique.

Simulation allows managers to test the effects of major policy decisions on real-life systems without disturbing the real system.

The lunch counter at a small restaurant has difficulty handling the lunch business. Currently, there is only one cashier in a single-channel, single-phase system. The restaurant has collected information on the interarrival time, and service time distributions from past lunch hours. They are represented in the tables below. Use the following two-digit random numbers given below to simulate 10 customers through the checkout system. What is the average time in line, and average time in system? (Set first arrival time to the interarrival time generated by first random number. Interarrival time (minutes) Probability Service time (minutes) Probability 1 .20 1 .20 2 .20 2 .30 3 .30 3 .30 4 .20 4 .20 5 .10 Random numbers for interarrival times: 32, 73, 41, 38, 73, 01, 09, 64, 34, 44 Random numbers of service times: 84, 55, 25, 71, 34, 57, 50, 44, 95, 64

A distribution of service times at a waiting line indicates that service takes 12 minutes 30 percent of the time and 14 minutes 70 percent of the time. In preparing this distribution for Monte Carlo analysis, the service time 13 minutes would be represented by the random number range

Simulation is the attempt to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real system, usually by means of a computerized model.

Historical records on a certain product indicate the following behavior for demand. The data represent the 288 days that the business was open during 2000. Convert these data into random number intervals. Demand in cases Number of occurrences 7 52 8 9 9 14 10 39 11 72 12 102