Exam 26: Simulation

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Simulation models are inexpensive to design and use.

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The Las Vegas method is a simulation technique that uses random elements when chance exists in their behavior.

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Would you simulate a problem for which there is an exact mathematical model already?

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The effects of OM policies over many months or years can be obtained by computer simulation in a short time. This phenomenon is referred to as

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A waiting-line problem that cannot be modeled by standard distributions has been simulated. The table below shows the result of a Monte Carlo simulation. (Assume that the simulation began at 8:00 a.m. and there is only one server.) Why do you think this problem does not fit the standard distribution for waiting lines? Explain briefly how a Monte Carlo simulation might work where analytical models cannot. Customer Number Arrival Time Service Time Service Ends 1 8:05 2 8:07 2 8:06 10 8:17 3 8:10 15 8:32 4 8:20 12 8:44 5 8:30 4 8:48

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A small store is trying to determine if its current checkout system is adequate. Currently, there is only one cashier, so it is a single-channel, single-phase system. The store has collected information on the interarrival time, and service time distributions. They are represented in the tables below. Use the following two-digit random numbers given below to simulate 10 customers through the checkout system. What is the average time in line, and average time in system? (Set first arrival time to the interarrival time generated by first random number. Interarrival time (minutes) Probability Service time (minutes) Probability 3 .25 1 .30 4 .25 2 .40 5 .30 3 .20 6 .20 4 .10 Random numbers for interarrival times: 07, 60, 77, 49, 76, 95, 51, 16, 14, 85 Random numbers of service times: 57, 17, 36, 72, 85, 31, 44, 30, 26, 09

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From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 1) is 0.05, P(demand = 2) is 0.15, and P(demand = 3) is .20. The cumulative probability for demand 3 would be

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Explain how Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers.

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Like mathematical and analytical models, simulation is restricted to using the standard probability distributions.

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One reason for using simulation rather than an analytical model in an inventory problem is that the simulation is able to handle probabilistic demand and lead times.

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What is the cumulative probability distribution of the following variable? Tires Sold Probability 0 1 1 2 2 15 3 3 4 25

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Which of the following statements regarding simulation is true?

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A distribution of service times at a waiting line shows that service takes 6 minutes 40 percent of the time, 7 minutes 30 percent of the time, 8 minutes 20 percent of the time, and 9 minutes 10 percent of the time. Prepare the probability distribution, the cumulative probability distribution, and the random number intervals for this problem.

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Provide a small example illustrating how random numbers are used in Monte Carlo simulation.

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From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.05 and P(demand = 1) is 0.10. The cumulative probability for demand 1 would be

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One of the advantages of simulation is that

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The number of tires sold at a car garage varies randomly between 0 and 4 each hour. What set of random numbers (on the 1-100 scale would tire sales of 2 be assigned?

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A distribution of service times at a waiting line shows that service takes 6 minutes 30 percent of the time, 7 minutes 40 percent of the time, 8 minutes 20 percent of the time, and 9 minutes 10 percent of the time. This distribution has been prepared for Monte Carlo analysis. The first two random numbers drawn are 53 and 74. The simulated service times are __________ minutes, then __________ minutes.

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The idea behind simulation is threefold: (1) to imitate a real-world situation mathematically, (2) then to study its properties and operating characteristics, and (3) finally to draw conclusions and make action decisions based on the results of the simulation.

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Which of the following restrictions applies to queuing models but not Monte Carlo simulations?

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