Question 1

Exponential smoothing and weighted moving average are examples of ______.

Accepted Answer

A) causal methods 
B) qualitative methods 
C) time series analysis 
D) simulation methods 
A) causal methods 
B) qualitative methods 
C) time series analysis 
D) simulation methods

Question 2

______ is a qualitative method that attempts to eliminate or minimize the problem of bias in the opinion of a single expert by using a panel of experts to generate forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) Expert opinion 
B) Sales force opinion 
C) Market research 
D) The Delphi method 
A) Expert opinion 
B) Sales force opinion 
C) Market research 
D) The Delphi method

Question 3

The tendency to consistently produce a particular type of forecast (high or low)that isn't accurate is called a(n)______.

Accepted Answer

A) overestimate 
B) underestimate 
C) bias 
D) wrong estimate 
A) overestimate 
B) underestimate 
C) bias 
D) wrong estimate

Question 4

______ are wave-like oscillations in demand about the trend line caused by changes in economic or business cycles or due to changes in political conditions.

Accepted Answer

A) Cyclical variations 
B) Seasonal variations 
C) Irregular variations 
D) Random variations 
A) Cyclical variations 
B) Seasonal variations 
C) Irregular variations 
D) Random variations

Question 5

Demand forecasts of individual items are needed for ______.

Accepted Answer

A) short-term activities like production scheduling 
B) medium-term activities like sales planning 
C) long-term activities like new product introduction 
D) strategic activities like service acquisition 
A) short-term activities like production scheduling 
B) medium-term activities like sales planning 
C) long-term activities like new product introduction 
D) strategic activities like service acquisition

Question 6

______ is the average of the sum of the absolute differences between the actual and forecasted demand values.

Accepted Answer

A) Mean squared error (MS
E)  
B) Mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) Mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E)  
D) Cumulative sum error (CS
E)  
A) Mean squared error (MS
E)  
B) Mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) Mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E)  
D) Cumulative sum error (CS
E)

Question 7

One drawback of surveys is that they are ______.

Accepted Answer

A) time-consuming 
B) inexpensive 
C) necessary for a high response rate 
D) efficient 
A) time-consuming 
B) inexpensive 
C) necessary for a high response rate 
D) efficient

Question 8

Which of following approaches should forecasters follow while choosing the best forecasting method?

Accepted Answer

A) Select the method that results in the fewest forecasting errors. 
B) Examine the performance of a single forecasting method over time. 
C) Select the method that results in the largest forecasting errors. 
D) There is no significance on the forecasting method selected since there will always be differences between the forecasts and actual values. 
A) Select the method that results in the fewest forecasting errors. 
B) Examine the performance of a single forecasting method over time. 
C) Select the method that results in the largest forecasting errors. 
D) There is no significance on the forecasting method selected since there will always be differences between the forecasts and actual values.

Question 9

When the smoothing constant (α)is set to 1,then exponential smoothing is equivalent to ______.

Accepted Answer

A) naïve approach 
B) weighted moving average 
C) moving average 
D) factor rating method 
A) naïve approach 
B) weighted moving average 
C) moving average 
D) factor rating method

Question 10

Additive models are used when patterns of seasonal variations ______.

Accepted Answer

A) remain constant over time 
B) become more or less pronounced as the trend component increases or decreases 
C) keep fluctuating over time 
D) exhibits different types of trend patterns 
A) remain constant over time 
B) become more or less pronounced as the trend component increases or decreases 
C) keep fluctuating over time 
D) exhibits different types of trend patterns

Question 11

Which of the following is NOT a feature of a good forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) timely 
B) complex 
C) efficient 
D) consistent 
A) timely 
B) complex 
C) efficient 
D) consistent

Question 12

______ is used to forecast demand for a new product or service that is similar to existing products.

Accepted Answer

A) Market research 
B) The Delphi method 
C) A historical life-cycle analogy 
D) A sales force opinion 
A) Market research 
B) The Delphi method 
C) A historical life-cycle analogy 
D) A sales force opinion

Question 13

In a(n)______ model,the seasonal indices are added to the projected trend data to create a combined forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) additive 
B) multiplicative 
C) subtractive 
D) trend-adjusted 
A) additive 
B) multiplicative 
C) subtractive 
D) trend-adjusted

Question 14

Which of the following is a form of quantitative analysis that uses causal techniques in order to identify related variables in order to make forecasts?

Accepted Answer

A) associative methods 
B) time series analysis 
C) the Delphi method 
D) moving average 
A) associative methods 
B) time series analysis 
C) the Delphi method 
D) moving average

Question 15

Which of the following is a type of nonlinear trend pattern?

Accepted Answer

A) damped trend 
B) trend line 
C) no trend (level demand) 
D) exponential growth 
A) damped trend 
B) trend line 
C) no trend (level demand) 
D) exponential growth

Question 16

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)is the ______.

Accepted Answer

A) average of the sum of the absolute differences between the actual and forecasted demand values 
B) average of the sum of the squared differences between the actual and forecasted demand values 
C) average of the absolute percentage error 
D) average of the absolute differences between the actual and forecasted demand values 
A) average of the sum of the absolute differences between the actual and forecasted demand values 
B) average of the sum of the squared differences between the actual and forecasted demand values 
C) average of the absolute percentage error 
D) average of the absolute differences between the actual and forecasted demand values

Question 17

The ______ measures the random variation,which is the variation of the actual (observed)y values from the predicted y values (ŷᵢ).

Accepted Answer

A) correlation coefficient 
B) error sum of squares (SS
E)  
C) coefficient of determination 
D) standard error of the estimate 
A) correlation coefficient 
B) error sum of squares (SS
E)  
C) coefficient of determination 
D) standard error of the estimate

Question 18

In order to be useful,demand forecasts should be ______.

Accepted Answer

A) consistent 
B) complex 
C) time-consuming 
D) inaccurate 
A) consistent 
B) complex 
C) time-consuming 
D) inaccurate

Question 19

Using the naïve approach,compute the forecast for Week 5 with the data that follows. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Week } & \text { Number of Patients } \
\hline 1 & 100 \
\hline 2 & 80 \
\hline 3 & 90 \
\hline 4 & 100 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A) 90 
B) 80 
C) 110 
D) 100 
A) 90 
B) 80 
C) 110 
D) 100

Question 20

The ______ measures the strength of the relationship between the independent and dependent variable in regression analysis.

Accepted Answer

A) standard error of the estimate 
B) total sum of squares (SST) 
C) coefficient of determination 
D) correlation coefficient 
A) standard error of the estimate 
B) total sum of squares (SST) 
C) coefficient of determination 
D) correlation coefficient

Exam 16: Demand Forecasting Methods

Exponential smoothing and weighted moving average are examples of ______.

______ is a qualitative method that attempts to eliminate or minimize the problem of bias in the opinion of a single expert by using a panel of experts to generate forecasts.

The tendency to consistently produce a particular type of forecast (high or low)that isn't accurate is called a(n)______.

______ are wave-like oscillations in demand about the trend line caused by changes in economic or business cycles or due to changes in political conditions.

Demand forecasts of individual items are needed for ______.

______ is the average of the sum of the absolute differences between the actual and forecasted demand values.

One drawback of surveys is that they are ______.

Which of following approaches should forecasters follow while choosing the best forecasting method?

When the smoothing constant (α)is set to 1,then exponential smoothing is equivalent to ______.

Additive models are used when patterns of seasonal variations ______.

Which of the following is NOT a feature of a good forecast?

______ is used to forecast demand for a new product or service that is similar to existing products.

In a(n)______ model,the seasonal indices are added to the projected trend data to create a combined forecast.

Which of the following is a form of quantitative analysis that uses causal techniques in order to identify related variables in order to make forecasts?

Which of the following is a type of nonlinear trend pattern?

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)is the ______.

The ______ measures the random variation,which is the variation of the actual (observed)y values from the predicted y values (ŷᵢ).

In order to be useful,demand forecasts should be ______.

Using the naïve approach,compute the forecast for Week 5 with the data that follows. Week Number of Patients 1 100 2 80 3 90 4 100

The ______ measures the strength of the relationship between the independent and dependent variable in regression analysis.

Introduction to Managing Global Operations and Supply Chains

Operations and Supply Chain Strategies

Project Management

Supplement: Project Management

Product and Service Innovations

Supplement: Reliability

Managing for Quality

Quality Improvement and Control Tools

Capacity Planning

Supply Chain Design and Location Planning

Process Design and Layout Planning

Supplement: Tools for Analyzing, Designing, and Selecting Processes and Layouts

Supplier Management

Logistics Management

Demand Management and Customer Service

Lean Operations and Supply Chains

Inventory Management

Inventory Control Models

Sales and Operations Planning

Master Scheduling and Material Requirements Planning

Supplement: Capacity Requirements Planning, MRP II, ERP, and DRP

Detailed Scheduling

Linear Programming

The Transportation Models

Waiting Line Models

Simulation

Learning Curves

Decision-Making Tools

Filters