Exam 16: Time Series and Forecasting

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What method is used to determine the linear equation when the best fitting straight line is required? _____________________

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What transformation should be used for a time series that increases by equal percentages over time? __________________

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For quarterly seasonal indexes, the total of the adjusted quarterly indexes will equal

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Using the following time series data, Using the following time series data,   What is the four-quarter moving average for 2009? What is the four-quarter moving average for 2009?

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Product sales since 2001 are: Product sales since 2001 are:   The least squares trend equation is given as Ŷ = 100 + 28t, where t is set equal to one for 2001. What were the predicted sales for 2009? The least squares trend equation is given as Ŷ = 100 + 28t, where t is set equal to one for 2001. What were the predicted sales for 2009?

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In a linear trend equation, which variable represents the average change in the dependent variable for every unit change in time?

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The table below shows the sales for a plastics manufacturer recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data The table below shows the sales for a plastics manufacturer recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data   What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 3? What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 3?

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One component of a time series is cyclical variation. An example of cyclical variation is the business cycle that consists of periods of prosperity followed by periods of recession, depression, and recovery.

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For an annual time series extending from 2000 through 2010, how many years would be lost in a three year moving average?

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The forecast for the third quarter is 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.85. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?

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Even if it is zero, every time series has this component. Name it. __________________

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For the third quarter, the sales are 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.15. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?

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To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes, after computing the ratio-to-moving averages, the averages must be:

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The following linear trend equation was developed for the annual sales of the Jordan Manufacturing Company. The following linear trend equation was developed for the annual sales of the Jordan Manufacturing Company.   = 500 + 60t (in $thousands). At what rate are sales increasing? = 500 + 60t (in $thousands). At what rate are sales increasing?

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A useful method for eliminating fluctuations in a time series is computing a ______.

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The Durbin-Watson statistic is based on the

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What type of analysis predicts the future on the basis of past data? ______________________________

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Given a linear time series trend, Ŷ = 5.2 + 3.1t, what is the forecast for 2010 if the time series started in 2003?

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For a straight trend line, what represents the amount of change in Ŷ for each increase of one unit in t? _________________________

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What is the correct order of events in a typical business cycle?

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