Exam 16: Time Series and Forecasting

The moving average method smoothes out the fluctuations in the data.

What method is most commonly used to compute typical seasonal indexes? ___________________________

For a time series beginning with 1991 and extending up to 2010, which year would be coded with a one when using the coded method?

If the time series trend is non-linear, a transformation of the data is required.

If we eliminate trend, cyclical and irregular variation from a monthly sales series, what time series component remains? _________________________

How does data that increases by equal percentages over a period of time appear on an arithmetic scaled graph? ___________________

To calculate quarterly typical seasonal indexes, how many periods are included in the ratio-to-moving-average method?

To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes, after computing the ratio-to-moving averages, the averages must be:

A resort hotel performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: Ŷ = 1000 + 150t Based on the seasonal indexes, which quarter is expect to have 20% less demand than predicted by the trend line?