Exam 16: Time Series and Forecasting

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For the third quarter, the sales are 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.85. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?

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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 50+ 420t. The next forecast is for period 10. The typical seasonal index for period 10 is 0.82. What are the forecast sales for period 10?

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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 100 + 120t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 1.15. What are the forecast sales for period 8?

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For the third quarter, the sales are 2,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.95. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?

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What is the difference between seasonal and cyclical variation in a time series?

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In the linear trend equation, what variable represents the Y-intercept? ______

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Given the trend equation, Ŷ = 25 + 0.6t (base year = 2006), what would be the forecast value for 2010?

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When the null hypothesis is rejected based on the Durbin-Watson statistic, what types of problems occur in regression analysis?

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The forecast for the third quarter is 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.18. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?

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What two types of irregular variations are unpredictable? ______________________ and _____________________

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A resort hotel performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: Ŷ = 1000 + 150t A resort hotel performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: Ŷ = 1000 + 150t   Using the trend line equation and the seasonal indexes, predict demand for the third quarter of the next year, i.e., period 23. 4,450 Using the trend line equation and the seasonal indexes, predict demand for the third quarter of the next year, i.e., period 23. 4,450

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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 120+ 100t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 0.80. What are the forecast sales for period 8?

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In a linear trend equation, t is a coded value that corresponds with a time period in a time series.

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A time series is a collection of data that:

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Autocorrelation can be corrected by using a ________.

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What method is useful in smoothing out a time series? ______________

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The following linear trend equation was developed for annual sales from 2005 to 2009, with 2005 as the base year. The following linear trend equation was developed for annual sales from 2005 to 2009, with 2005 as the base year.   = 500 + 60t (in $thousands). What are the estimated sales for 2010 (in $thousands)? = 500 + 60t (in $thousands). What are the estimated sales for 2010 (in $thousands)?

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To compute a forecast for a time series with seasonality, the trended forecast is computed and then adjusted by multiplying by a ________.

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A useful method for smoothing a time series to examine trend is called a ______.

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Using the following time series data, Using the following time series data,   What is the four-quarter moving average for the period ending with the second quarter in 2010? What is the four-quarter moving average for the period ending with the second quarter in 2010?

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