Exam 16: Time Series and Forecasting
Exam 1: What Is Statistics79 Questions
Exam 2: Describing Data: Frequency Tables, Frequency Distributions, and Graphic Presentation129 Questions
Exam 3: Describing Data: Numerical Measures132 Questions
Exam 4: Describing Data: Displaying and Exploring Data108 Questions
Exam 5: A Survey of Probability Concepts130 Questions
Exam 6: Discrete Probability Distributions128 Questions
Exam 7: Continuous Probability Distributions131 Questions
Exam 8: Sampling Methods and the Central Limit Theorem115 Questions
Exam 9: Estimation and Confidence Intervals129 Questions
Exam 10: One-Sample Tests of Hypothesis134 Questions
Exam 11: Two-Sample Tests of Hypothesis130 Questions
Exam 12: Analysis of Variance128 Questions
Exam 13: Correlation and Linear Regression130 Questions
Exam 14: Multiple Regression Analysis129 Questions
Exam 15: Index Numbers129 Questions
Exam 16: Time Series and Forecasting129 Questions
Exam 17: Nonparametric Methods: Goodness-Of-Fit Tests129 Questions
Exam 18: Nonparametric Methods: Analysis of Ranked Data129 Questions
Exam 19: Statistical Process Control and Quality Management129 Questions
Exam 20: An Introduction to Decision Theory115 Questions
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For the third quarter, the sales are 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.85. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
(Multiple Choice)
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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 50+ 420t. The next forecast is for period 10. The typical seasonal index for period 10 is 0.82. What are the forecast sales for period 10?
(Multiple Choice)
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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 100 + 120t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 1.15. What are the forecast sales for period 8?
(Multiple Choice)
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For the third quarter, the sales are 2,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.95. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
(Multiple Choice)
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What is the difference between seasonal and cyclical variation in a time series?
(Essay)
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In the linear trend equation, what variable represents the Y-intercept? ______
(Short Answer)
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Given the trend equation, Ŷ = 25 + 0.6t (base year = 2006), what would be the forecast value for 2010?
(Multiple Choice)
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When the null hypothesis is rejected based on the Durbin-Watson statistic, what types of problems occur in regression analysis?
(Essay)
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The forecast for the third quarter is 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.18. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
(Multiple Choice)
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What two types of irregular variations are unpredictable? ______________________ and _____________________
(Short Answer)
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A resort hotel performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes:
Ŷ = 1000 + 150t
Using the trend line equation and the seasonal indexes, predict demand for the third quarter of the next year, i.e., period 23.
4,450

(Short Answer)
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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 120+ 100t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 0.80. What are the forecast sales for period 8?
(Multiple Choice)
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In a linear trend equation, t is a coded value that corresponds with a time period in a time series.
(True/False)
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What method is useful in smoothing out a time series? ______________
(Short Answer)
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The following linear trend equation was developed for annual sales from 2005 to 2009, with 2005 as the base year.
= 500 + 60t (in $thousands). What are the estimated sales for 2010 (in $thousands)?

(Multiple Choice)
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To compute a forecast for a time series with seasonality, the trended forecast is computed and then adjusted by multiplying by a ________.
(Short Answer)
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A useful method for smoothing a time series to examine trend is called a ______.
(Short Answer)
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Using the following time series data,
What is the four-quarter moving average for the period ending with the second quarter in 2010?

(Short Answer)
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