Question 1

An exponential smoothing model can be found easily by applying the Excel Add Trendline option to a time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  False

Question 2

Exponential smoothing models "never forget" past data as long as the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. In contrast, moving average methods "completely forget" all data older than k periods in the past.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  True

Question 3

All time series contain random variation but may not contain trend or seasonal components.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  True

Question 4

The manager of a gas station along an interstate highway has observed that gasoline sales generally increase each week over the summer months as more families travel by car on vacations. He also believes that sales are sensitive to fluctuations in the price of gasoline. He developed the following regression model:
Sales = 59407 + 509( Week) - 16463 (Price/gallon)
a.Interpret the coefficients of the independent variables in this model.
b.What is the sales forecast for the 11th week of the summer if the price per gallon is estimated to be $3.00?

Accepted Answer

a.Sales increase on average by 509 gallo

Question 5

Single exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant value of .25 puts the same weight on the most recent actual demand as a 4-period moving average.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

A Taiwan electronics company exports personal computers PCs) to the U.S. Their PC sales in thousands) over the past five years are given below.
 $$\begin{array} { c c } 
\text { Year } & \text { Sales } \
\hline1 & 6 \
2 & 9 \
3 & 13 \
4 & 15 \
5 & 20
\end{array}$$ 
a. What is the regression equation if the company wants to predict sales?
b. What is the forecast for sales in year 6?

Accepted Answer

a.  
 a = [ (55) (63) -( 15)(

Question 7

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are shown below along with the results of two different forecasting models that were developed t:
 $$\begin{array} { l c c c } 
\text { Month } & \text { Sales } & \text { Forecast 1 } & \text { Forecast 2 } \
\hline \text { Jan } & 35 & 30 & 33 \
\text { Feb } & 29 & 28 & 32 \
\text { Mar } & 39 & 43 & 35 \
\text { Apr } & 42 & 40 & 45 \
\text { May } & 51 & 48 & 52 \
\text { Jun } & 56 & 55 & 52
\end{array}$$ Which is the better forecasting model, based on the MAD criterion?

Accepted Answer

MAD Forecast( 1) = 1

Question 8

____ forecasts are needed to plan work-force levels, allocate budgets among divisions and schedule jobs and resources.

Accepted Answer

A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning 
A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning

Question 9

Seasonal patterns can occur over the weeks during a month, over days during a week, or hours during a day.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Consider the sales for six consecutive weeks for Sam's Strawberries. The sales are in "flats" sold.
 $$\begin{array} { c c } 
\text { Week } & \text { Sales } \
\hline 1 & 16 \
2 & 18 \
3 & 14 \
4 & 10 \
5 & 20 \
6 & 22
\end{array}$$ 
a. Using a 3-period moving average, forecast the sales for weeks four through six.
b. Use exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .3 to forecast sales for weeks four through six.
c. Use linear regression time series) to develop a prediction equation that will forecast sales. Then use that prediction equation to get forecasts for weeks four through six.
d. Use MAD to pick the best forecasting method of A through C.

Accepted Answer

a. Week 4: (16 + 18 + 14)/3 = 16.0
Week

Question 11

An) ____ is a one-time variation that is explainable.

Accepted Answer

A) Cyclical pattern 
B) Random Variation 
C) Irregular variation 
D) Seasonal pattern 
A) Cyclical pattern 
B) Random Variation 
C) Irregular variation 
D) Seasonal pattern

Question 12

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ($\alpha$) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

@#LAT-DLM& = 2/(k +

Question 13

____ forecasts are needed to plan for facility expansion.

Accepted Answer

A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning 
A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning

Question 14

An R2 of 0.80 means

Accepted Answer

A) 80% of the variability in the independent variable is explained by the dependent variable 
B) 80% of the variability in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable 
C) 80% of the variability in the dependent variable is not explained by the independent variable 
D) Multiple regression was used 
A) 80% of the variability in the independent variable is explained by the dependent variable 
B) 80% of the variability in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable 
C) 80% of the variability in the dependent variable is not explained by the independent variable 
D) Multiple regression was used

Question 15

Define forecast error and describe ways that it is measured.

Accepted Answer

Forecast error is the difference between

Question 16

An R2 of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Which is not true regarding simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A) Small values of alpha $\alpha$) place more emphasis on past data 
B) Larger values of alpha $\alpha$) have the advantage of quickly adjusting the forecast 
C) If alpha $\alpha$) equals zero, the forecast will never change 
D) If alpha $\alpha$) equals one, the forecast will never change 
A) Small values of alpha $\alpha$) place more emphasis on past data 
B) Larger values of alpha $\alpha$) have the advantage of quickly adjusting the forecast 
C) If alpha $\alpha$) equals zero, the forecast will never change 
D) If alpha $\alpha$) equals one, the forecast will never change

Question 18

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks:
 $\begin{array}{llll}
\text { Week } 1&&\text { Week } 2\
\text { Monday } & 873 & \text { Monday } & 91 \
\text { Tuesday } & 904 & \text { Tuesday } & 859 \
\text { Wednesday } & 911 & \text { Wednesday } & 90 \
\text { Thursday } & 887 & \text { Thursday } & 900 \
\text { Friday } & 899 & \text { Friday } & ?
\end{array}$ What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

Accepted Answer

FFriday) =

Question 19

The forecasting error measurement that is different in that the measurement scale factor is eliminated is

Accepted Answer

A) MSE 
B) MAD 
C) RMSE 
D) MAPE 
A) MSE 
B) MAD 
C) RMSE 
D) MAPE

Question 20

Which of the following does not fit with the Delphi method?

Accepted Answer

A) Group of experts 
B) Brought together as a group 
C) Process iterates until a consensus is reached 
D) Qualitative as well as numerical outputs 
A) Group of experts 
B) Brought together as a group 
C) Process iterates until a consensus is reached 
D) Qualitative as well as numerical outputs

An exponential smoothing model can be found easily by applying the Excel Add Trendline option to a time series.

Exponential smoothing models "never forget" past data as long as the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. In contrast, moving average methods "completely forget" all data older than k periods in the past.

All time series contain random variation but may not contain trend or seasonal components.

Single exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant value of .25 puts the same weight on the most recent actual demand as a 4-period moving average.

A Taiwan electronics company exports personal computers PCs) to the U.S. Their PC sales in thousands) over the past five years are given below. Year Sales 1 6 2 9 3 13 4 15 5 20 a. What is the regression equation if the company wants to predict sales? b. What is the forecast for sales in year 6?

____ forecasts are needed to plan work-force levels, allocate budgets among divisions and schedule jobs and resources.

Seasonal patterns can occur over the weeks during a month, over days during a week, or hours during a day.

An) ____ is a one-time variation that is explainable.

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ( $\alpha$ ) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

____ forecasts are needed to plan for facility expansion.

An R² of 0.80 means

Define forecast error and describe ways that it is measured.

An R² of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.

Which is not true regarding simple exponential smoothing?

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks: Week 1 Week 2 Monday 873 Monday 91 Tuesday 904 Tuesday 859 Wednesday 911 Wednesday 90 Thursday 887 Thursday 900 Friday 899 Friday ? What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

The forecasting error measurement that is different in that the measurement scale factor is eliminated is

Which of the following does not fit with the Delphi method?

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Queuing Analysis

Modeling Using Linear Programming

Simulation

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning

An exponential smoothing model can be found easily by applying the Excel Add Trendline option to a time series.

Exponential smoothing models "never forget" past data as long as the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. In contrast, moving average methods "completely forget" all data older than k periods in the past.

All time series contain random variation but may not contain trend or seasonal components.

Single exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant value of .25 puts the same weight on the most recent actual demand as a 4-period moving average.

A Taiwan electronics company exports personal computers PCs) to the U.S. Their PC sales in thousands) over the past five years are given below. Year Sales 1 6 2 9 3 13 4 15 5 20 a. What is the regression equation if the company wants to predict sales? b. What is the forecast for sales in year 6?

____ forecasts are needed to plan work-force levels, allocate budgets among divisions and schedule jobs and resources.

Seasonal patterns can occur over the weeks during a month, over days during a week, or hours during a day.

An) ____ is a one-time variation that is explainable.

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ( α\alphaα ) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

____ forecasts are needed to plan for facility expansion.

An R2 of 0.80 means

Define forecast error and describe ways that it is measured.

An R2 of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.

Which is not true regarding simple exponential smoothing?

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks: Week 1 Week 2 Monday 873 Monday 91 Tuesday 904 Tuesday 859 Wednesday 911 Wednesday 90 Thursday 887 Thursday 900 Friday 899 Friday ? What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

The forecasting error measurement that is different in that the measurement scale factor is eliminated is

Which of the following does not fit with the Delphi method?

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Queuing Analysis

Modeling Using Linear Programming

Simulation

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Filters

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ( $\alpha$ ) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

An R² of 0.80 means

An R² of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.