Question 1

The Delphi method is a forecasting approach that is based on expert opinion.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Which of the following is not one of the five characteristics of a time series?

Accepted Answer

A) Time bucket 
B) Trend 
C) Cyclical 
D) Random variation 
A) Time bucket 
B) Trend 
C) Cyclical 
D) Random variation

Question 3

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are:
 $$\begin{array} { c c c } 
\text { Manth } & & \text { Sales } \
 \hline\text { Jan } & & 35 \
\text { Feb } & & 29 \
\text { Mar } & & 39 \
\text { Apr } & & 42 \
\text { May } && 51 \
\text { Jun } & & 56
\end{array}$$ Forecast sales for July using an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant of 0.40. Assume that the forecast for May was 36.25.

Accepted Answer

To forecast sales for July using an expo

Question 4

Which of the following is not a valid approach to gathering data for judgmental forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) Questionnaire 
B) Telephone contact 
C) Personal interview 
D) Company records 
A) Questionnaire 
B) Telephone contact 
C) Personal interview 
D) Company records

Question 5

State Division of Motor Vehicles DMV) statistics show the rate of new driver's license applications to be as shown below:
 $$\begin{array} { l c c } 
\text { Month } & \text { Week } & \text { Applications } \
\text { April } & 1 & 238 \
& 2 & 199 \
& 3 & 215 \ 
& 4 & 212 \
\hline \text { May } & 1 & 207 \
& 2 & 211 \
& 3 & 196 \
& 4 & 206
\end{array}$$ 
a. Using a 3-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April?
b. Using a 5-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April?

Accepted Answer

a. FApril, (1) = (211 + 196 +

Question 6

Valentine's Day is the best day of the year for selling roses at River Road Florist. Dozens of roses sold on Valentine's Day over six years are as follows:
 $$\begin{array} { c c } 
\text { Year } & \text { Dozen } \
\hline 2005 & 104 \
2006 & 109 \
2007 & 101 \
2008 & 114 \
2009 & 104 \
2010 & 100
\end{array}$$ 
a. What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a 3-period moving average?
b. What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a 5-period moving average?
d. What is the MAD for years 2008 ? 2010 using a 3-period moving average?
e. What is the tracking signal for years 2008 ? 2010 using a 3-period moving average?

Accepted Answer

a. F2011) =( 114 + 104 + 100)/3 = 106.00

Question 7

A major difference between MSE and MAD is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

A single moving average is most appropriate for data with identifiable trends.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following except

Accepted Answer

A) Use quantitative rather than qualitative methods. 
B) Combine forecasts from approaches that are similar. 
C) Ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing. 
D) Use multiple measures of forecast accuracy. 
A) Use quantitative rather than qualitative methods. 
B) Combine forecasts from approaches that are similar. 
C) Ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing. 
D) Use multiple measures of forecast accuracy.

Question 11

Exponential smoothing...

Accepted Answer

A) Works best for long-term forecasting 
B) Yields a mathematically optimal solution 
C) Assigns weights to past data that decay exponentially as the data gets older 
D) Cannot be adapted to handle trend 
A) Works best for long-term forecasting 
B) Yields a mathematically optimal solution 
C) Assigns weights to past data that decay exponentially as the data gets older 
D) Cannot be adapted to handle trend

Question 12

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Regression analysis

Accepted Answer

A) Is limited to one dependent and one independent variable 
B) Is best with linear relationships 
C) Maximizes the sum of the squared deviations between the actual time series value and the estimated values of the dependent variable 
D) Can be used with time as the independent variable 
A) Is limited to one dependent and one independent variable 
B) Is best with linear relationships 
C) Maximizes the sum of the squared deviations between the actual time series value and the estimated values of the dependent variable 
D) Can be used with time as the independent variable

Question 14

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

All of the following are important concepts in forecasting except

Accepted Answer

A) Determining the planning horizon length. 
B) Determining the time bucket size i.e., year, quarter, month, week, day, etc.). 
C) Using a smoothing constant of 0.1 in Delphi methods of forecasting. 
D) Identifying cyclical patterns. 
A) Determining the planning horizon length. 
B) Determining the time bucket size i.e., year, quarter, month, week, day, etc.). 
C) Using a smoothing constant of 0.1 in Delphi methods of forecasting. 
D) Identifying cyclical patterns.

Question 16

Which of the following is not a statistical method?

Accepted Answer

A) Delphi 
B) Exponential smoothing 
C) Moving average 
D) Linear regression 
A) Delphi 
B) Exponential smoothing 
C) Moving average 
D) Linear regression

The Delphi method is a forecasting approach that is based on expert opinion.

Which of the following is not one of the five characteristics of a time series?

Which of the following is not a valid approach to gathering data for judgmental forecasting?

A major difference between MSE and MAD is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

A single moving average is most appropriate for data with identifiable trends.

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following except

Exponential smoothing...

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

Regression analysis

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.

All of the following are important concepts in forecasting except

Which of the following is not a statistical method?

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Queuing Analysis

Modeling Using Linear Programming

Simulation

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning

The Delphi method is a forecasting approach that is based on expert opinion.

Which of the following is not one of the five characteristics of a time series?

Which of the following is not a valid approach to gathering data for judgmental forecasting?

A major difference between MSE and MAD is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

A single moving average is most appropriate for data with identifiable trends.

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following except

Exponential smoothing...

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

Regression analysis

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.

All of the following are important concepts in forecasting except

Which of the following is not a statistical method?

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Queuing Analysis

Modeling Using Linear Programming

Simulation

Work Measurement, Learning Curves, and Standards

Filters