Exam 14: Forecasting

Use the data and graph shown below for the following questions. -Refer to the instruction above.Use a trend projection to forecast the next week's demand.Then apply seasonal indices to determine the demand on Saturday of the fourth week.What is the demand projected to be?

Assume that a time-series forecast is generated for future demand and subsequently it is observed that the forecast method did not accurately predict the actual demand.Specifically,the forecast errors were found to be: Mean absolute percent error = 10% Cumulative sum of forecast errors = 0 Which one of the statements concerning this forecast is TRUE?

________ is a systematic approach to determine consumer interest in a product or service by creating and testing hypotheses through data-gathering surveys.

In an exponential smoothing model a ________ value for alpha results in greater emphasis being placed on more recent periods.

The Classical Consultant Company provides forecasting research for clients such as a group of five doctors associated with a new hospital health-maintenance program.The company has been asked to forecast the number of patients requesting blood analysis per week.The past weekly average is 38 and,for the trend,is 2 per week.This week's demand was 42 blood tests.How many patients will come next week? (Suppose = 0.10 and = 0.30. )

Judgment methods of forecasting are quantitative methods that use historical data on independent variables to predict demand.

Two mercenary forecasters dueled for the lucrative Surreal Farms egg production forecasting job.The farmer provided them with output levels from ten day's production and had them forecast the next ten days.The combatant's forecasts and the actual egg production are shown in the table.Which forecaster was more accurate and should be hired as a result of his performance on this trial?

Which one of the following basic patterns of demand is difficult to predict because it is affected by national or international events or because of a lack of demand history reflecting the stages of demand from product development to decline?

Some analysts prefer to use a holdout set as the final test of a forecasting procedure.

Which one of the following statements about the patterns of a demand series is FALSE?

Table 14.8 -Use the information in Table 14.8.Using the 4-month weighted moving-average technique and the following weights,what is the forecasted demand for November?

Table 14.8 -Use the information in Table 14.8.Using the simple moving-average technique for the most recent three months,what will be the forecasted demand for November?

Table 14.10 TOMBOW is a small manufacturer of pencils and has had the following sales record for the most recent five months: Use an exponential smoothing model to forecast sales in months 2,3,4,and 5.Let the smoothing parameter equal 0.6;select F1 = 150 to get the forecast started. -Use the information in Table 14.10.The forecast for month 4 is:

Table 14.13 The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been: -Use the information from Table 14.13.The pizza shop manager is looking for a forecasting approach that will forecast her demand within 0.5 pizzas.If the actual demand for week #7 was 39 pizzas,which of the combination forecasts came closest to predicting this demand?

________ methods use historical data on independent variables to predict demand.

The Delphi method is a process of gaining consensus from a group of experts by debate and voting throughout several rounds of group discussion led by a moderator.

________ are produced by averaging independent forecasts based on different methods or different data,or both.

Table 14.5 The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been: -Use the information from Table 14.5.If a naive forecast were constructed,the forecast for week 7 would be:

Table 14.7 -Use the information in Table 14.7.Suppose actual sales in June turn out to be 40 units.Use the three-month moving-average method to forecast the sales in July.

One of the basic time series patterns is random.