Question 1

The average,absolute difference between the forecast and demand is a popular measure of forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

The long-term strategic planning process is dependent upon qualitative forecasting methods.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

If forecast errors are normally distributed,then

Accepted Answer

A) 1 MAD = 1σ. 
B) 1 MAD ≈ 0.8 σ. 
C) 0.8 MAD ≈ 1σ. 
D) 1 MAD ≈ 1.96 σ. 
A) 1 MAD = 1σ. 
B) 1 MAD ≈ 0.8 σ. 
C) 0.8 MAD ≈ 1σ. 
D) 1 MAD ≈ 1.96 σ.

Question 4

A linear regression model that relates demand to time is known as a linear trend line.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Exponential smoothing is an averaging method for forecasting that reacts more strongly to recent changes in demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Compare and contrast short-mid-range forecasts and long-range forecasts.

Accepted Answer

Forecasts are either short-to mid-range,

Question 7

The demand and forecast values are shown in the table below:   The forecast error for September is

Accepted Answer

A) 10.00. 
B) -10.00. 
C) 1.00. 
D) 39.00. 
A) 10.00. 
B) -10.00. 
C) 1.00. 
D) 39.00.

Question 8

Because of advances in technology,many service industries no longer require accurate forecasts to provide high quality service.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Long-range qualitative forecasts are used to determine future demand for new products,markets,and customers.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts:   The mean absolute deviation (MAD)for the end of May is

Accepted Answer

A) 7.0. 
B) 7.5. 
C) 10.0 
D) 3.0 
A) 7.0. 
B) 7.5. 
C) 10.0 
D) 3.0

Question 11

The trend toward continuous replenishment in supply chain design has shifted the need for accurate forecasts from short-term to long-term.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Which of the following can be used to monitor a forecast to see if it is biased high or low?

Accepted Answer

A) a tracking signal 
B) the mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) the mean absolute percentage deviation (MAP
D)  
D) a linear trend line model 
A) a tracking signal 
B) the mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) the mean absolute percentage deviation (MAP
D)  
D) a linear trend line model

Question 13

Correlation in linear regression is a measure of the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable,demand,and an independent (explanatory)variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts:   At the end of May the tracking signal would be

Accepted Answer

A) 0.000. 
B) 0.667. 
C) 1.333. 
D) 2.143. 
A) 0.000. 
B) 0.667. 
C) 1.333. 
D) 2.143.

Question 15

Regression forecasting methods relate ___ to other factors that cause demand behaviour.

Accepted Answer

A) supply 
B) demand 
C) time 
D) money 
E) efficiency 
A) supply 
B) demand 
C) time 
D) money 
E) efficiency

Question 16

The smoothing constant,α,in the exponential smoothing forecast

Accepted Answer

A) must always be a value greater than 1.0. 
B) must always be a value less than 0.10. 
C) must be a value between 0.0 and 1.0. 
D) should be equal to the time frame for the forecast. 
A) must always be a value greater than 1.0. 
B) must always be a value less than 0.10. 
C) must be a value between 0.0 and 1.0. 
D) should be equal to the time frame for the forecast.

Question 17

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below:   The three-period moving average forecast for November is

Accepted Answer

A) 516. 
B) 528. 
C) 524. 
D) 515. 
A) 516. 
B) 528. 
C) 524. 
D) 515.

Question 18

A long-range forecast would normally not be used to

Accepted Answer

A) design the supply chain. 
B) implement strategic programs. 
C) determine production schedules. 
D) plan new products for changing markets 
A) design the supply chain. 
B) implement strategic programs. 
C) determine production schedules. 
D) plan new products for changing markets

Question 19

The ___ method uses demand in the first period to forecast demand in the next period.

Accepted Answer

A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) linear trend 
A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) linear trend

Question 20

Which of the following statements concerning average error is true?

Accepted Answer

A) A positive value indicates high bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
B) A positive value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
C) A negative value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates high bias. 
D) A positive value indicates low bias,and a negative value indicates high bias. 
A) A positive value indicates high bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
B) A positive value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
C) A negative value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates high bias. 
D) A positive value indicates low bias,and a negative value indicates high bias.

Exam 15: Forecasting

The average,absolute difference between the forecast and demand is a popular measure of forecast error.

The long-term strategic planning process is dependent upon qualitative forecasting methods.

If forecast errors are normally distributed,then

A linear regression model that relates demand to time is known as a linear trend line.

Exponential smoothing is an averaging method for forecasting that reacts more strongly to recent changes in demand.

Compare and contrast short-mid-range forecasts and long-range forecasts.

The demand and forecast values are shown in the table below: The forecast error for September is

Because of advances in technology,many service industries no longer require accurate forecasts to provide high quality service.

Long-range qualitative forecasts are used to determine future demand for new products,markets,and customers.

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: The mean absolute deviation (MAD)for the end of May is

The trend toward continuous replenishment in supply chain design has shifted the need for accurate forecasts from short-term to long-term.

Which of the following can be used to monitor a forecast to see if it is biased high or low?

Correlation in linear regression is a measure of the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable,demand,and an independent (explanatory)variable.

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: At the end of May the tracking signal would be

Regression forecasting methods relate ___ to other factors that cause demand behaviour.

The smoothing constant,α,in the exponential smoothing forecast

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below: The three-period moving average forecast for November is

A long-range forecast would normally not be used to

The ___ method uses demand in the first period to forecast demand in the next period.

Which of the following statements concerning average error is true?

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