Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

A 24-hour coffee/donut shop makes donuts every eight hours. The manager must forecast donut demand so that the bakers have the fresh ingredients they need. Listed below is the actual number of glazed donuts (in dozens) sold in each of the preceding 13 eight-hour shifts. ​ a. Develop the optimization model that finds the estimated regression equation that minimize the sum of squared error. b. Solve for the estimated regression equation. c. Forecast the demand for glazed donuts for the Day, Evening, and Night shifts of June 8.

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is ​ 63, 58, 61, 72, 98, 103, 121, 147, 163, 198 ​ Develop a trend equation for this information, and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend or seasonal patterns are present.