The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Month } } & \text { Number of Visits } \\ \hline \text { April } & 100 \\ \hline \text { May } & 140 \\ \hline \text { June } & 110 \\ \hline \text { July } & 150 \\ \hline \text { August } & 120 \\ \hline \text { September } & 160 \\ \hline \end{array}\] What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1?

A) 120 B) 129 C) 141 D) 135 E) 140 A) 120 B) 129 C) 141 D) 135 E) 140

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Enrollment } \\ \hline \text { Four years ago } & 2000 \\ \hline \text { Three years ago } & 2200 \\ \hline \text { Two years ago } & 2800 \\ \hline \text { Last year } & 3000 \\ \hline \end{array}\] What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

A) 2,000 B) 2,200 C) 2,800 D) 3,000 E) 3,200 A) 2,000 B) 2,200 C) 2,800 D) 3,000 E) 3,200

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Enrollment } \\ \hline \text { Four years ago } & 2000 \\ \hline \text { Three years ago } & 2200 \\ \hline \text { Two years ago } & 2800 \\ \hline \text { Last year } & 3000 \\ \hline \end{array}\] What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A) 3,600 B) 3,500 C) 3,400 D) 3,300 E) 3,200 A) 3,600 B) 3,500 C) 3,400 D) 3,300 E) 3,200

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: \[\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Enrollments } \\ \hline 5 \text { Years ago } & 900 \\ \hline 4 \text { Years ago } & 700 \\ \hline 3 \text { Years ago } & 600 \\ \hline 2 \text { Years ago } & 500 \\ \hline \text { Last Year } & 300 \\ \hline \end{array}\] What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .3 and beta = .2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

A) 162.4 B) 180.3 C) 301.4 D) 403.2 E) 510 A) 162.4 B) 180.3 C) 301.4 D) 403.2 E) 510

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Enrollments } \\ \hline \text { 5 Years ago } & 15,000 \\ \hline \text { 4 Years ago } & 16,000 \\ \hline \text { 3 Years ago } & 18,000 \\ \hline \text { 2 Years ago } & 20,000 \\ \hline \text { Last Year } & 21,000 \\ \hline \end{array}\] What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

A) 18,750 B) 19,500 C) 21,000 D) 22,000 E) 22,800 A) 18,750 B) 19,500 C) 21,000 D) 22,000 E) 22,800

Exam 3: Forecasting

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: Month Number of Visits April 100 May 140 June 110 July 150 August 120 September 160 What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 81

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate ofthe cyclical component of a forecast?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 82

Given forecast errors of -5, -10, and +15, the MAD is:

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 83

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 84

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

(True/False)

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Question 85

Averaging techniques are useful for:

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 86

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 87

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

(True/False)

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Question 88

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.

(True/False)

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Question 89

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: Year Enrollment Four years ago 2000 Three years ago 2200 Two years ago 2800 Last year 3000 What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 90

Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

(True/False)

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Question 91

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 92

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 93

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: Year Enrollment Four years ago 2000 Three years ago 2200 Two years ago 2800 Last year 3000 What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 94

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: Year Enrollments 5 Years ago 900 4 Years ago 700 3 Years ago 600 2 Years ago 500 Last Year 300 What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .3 and beta = .2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 95

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include:

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 96

Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging.

(True/False)

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Question 97

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: Year Enrollments 5 Years ago 15,000 4 Years ago 16,000 3 Years ago 18,000 2 Years ago 20,000 Last Year 21,000 What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 98

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 99

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

(True/False)

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Question 100

Exam 3: Forecasting

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate ofthe cyclical component of a forecast?

Given forecast errors of -5, -10, and +15, the MAD is:

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

Averaging techniques are useful for:

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: Year Enrollment Four years ago 2000 Three years ago 2200 Two years ago 2800 Last year 3000 What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include:

Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging.

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness

Product and Service Design

RELIABILITY – Static

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Decision Theory– Static

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

learning curve– Static

Location Planning and Analysis

The Transportation Model– Static

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Acceptance Sampling– Static

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

JIT and Lean Operations

Maintenance– Static

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters