Question 1

Customer service levels can be improved by better:

Accepted Answer

A)  mission statements. 
B)  control charting. 
C)  short-term forecast accuracy. 
D)  exponential smoothing. 
E)  customer selection. 
A)  mission statements. 
B)  control charting. 
C)  short-term forecast accuracy. 
D)  exponential smoothing. 
E)  customer selection. C

Question 2

A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  True

Question 3

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:  
What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average

Accepted Answer

A)  49 
B)  50 
C)  52 
D)  65 
E)  78 
A)  49 
B)  50 
C)  52 
D)  65 
E)  78 D

Question 4

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Accepted Answer

A)  time series data 
B)  expert opinions 
C)  Delphi technique 
D)  consumer survey 
E)  predictor variables 
A)  time series data 
B)  expert opinions 
C)  Delphi technique 
D)  consumer survey 
E)  predictor variables

Question 5

Nonlinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are nonlinear or involve more than one predictor variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline  { \text { Year } } & \text { Attendance } \
\hline \text { Four Years ago } & 10,000 \
\hline \text { Three Years ago } & 12,000 \
\hline \text { Two Years ago } & 18,000 \
\hline \text { Last Year } & 20,000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A)  67 
B)  115 
C)  69 
D)  68 
E)  68.67 
A)  67 
B)  115 
C)  69 
D)  68 
E)  68.67

Question 7

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

Accepted Answer

A)  decreased. 
B)  increased. 
C)  multiplied by a larger alpha. 
D)  multiplied by a smaller alpha. 
E)  eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE. 
A)  decreased. 
B)  increased. 
C)  multiplied by a larger alpha. 
D)  multiplied by a smaller alpha. 
E)  eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE.

Question 8

Forecasting techniques that are based on time-series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Putting forecast errors into perspective is best done using

Accepted Answer

A)  exponential smoothing. 
B)  MAPE. 
C)  linear decision rules. 
D)  MAD. 
E)  hindsight. 
A)  exponential smoothing. 
B)  MAPE. 
C)  linear decision rules. 
D)  MAD. 
E)  hindsight.

Question 10

An advantage of trend-adjusted exponential smoothing over the linear trend equation is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline \text { Year } & \text { Enrollments } \
\hline \text { 5 Years ago } & 15,000 \
\hline \text { 4 Years ago } & 16,000 \
\hline \text { 3 Years ago } & 18,000 \
\hline \text { 2 Years ago } & 20,000 \
\hline \text { Last Year } & 21,000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = .5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750 
B)  19,500 
C)  21,000 
D)  22,650 
E)  22,800 
A)  18,750 
B)  19,500 
C)  21,000 
D)  22,650 
E)  22,800

Question 12

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline  { \text { Month } } & \text { Number of Visits } \
\hline \text { April } & 100 \
\hline \text { May } & 140 \
\hline \text { June } & 110 \
\hline \text { July } & 150 \
\hline \text { August } & 120 \
\hline \text { September } & 160 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's forecast was 145?

Accepted Answer

A)  144 
B)  140 
C)  142 
D)  148 
E)  163 
A)  144 
B)  140 
C)  142 
D)  148 
E)  163

Question 13

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Attendance } \
\hline \text { Four Years ago } & 10,000 \
\hline \text { Three Years ago } & 12,000 \
\hline \text { Two Years ago } & 18,000 \
\hline \text { Last Year } & 20,000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is this year's forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of .7 and .3?

Accepted Answer

A)  19,400 
B)  18,600 
C)  19,000 
D)  11,400 
E)  10,600 
A)  19,400 
B)  18,600 
C)  19,000 
D)  11,400 
E)  10,600

Question 14

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)  36.9 
B)  57.5 
C)  60.5 
D)  62.5 
E)  65.5 
A)  36.9 
B)  57.5 
C)  60.5 
D)  62.5 
E)  65.5

Question 16

The T in the model TAF = S + T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?

Accepted Answer

A)  what customers are most likely to do in the future 
B)  what customers most want to do in the future 
C)  what plans customers are considering for the future 
D)  whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past 
E)  what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be 
A)  what customers are most likely to do in the future 
B)  what customers most want to do in the future 
C)  what plans customers are considering for the future 
D)  whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past 
E)  what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be

Question 18

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for period 5? $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Period } & \text { Value } \
\hline 1 & 58 \
\hline 2 & 59 \
\hline 3 & 60 \
\hline 4 & 61 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A)  58 
B)  62 
C)  59.5 
D)  61 
E)  cannot tell from the data given 
A)  58 
B)  62 
C)  59.5 
D)  61 
E)  cannot tell from the data given

Question 19

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

Accepted Answer

A)  sales force opinions. 
B)  consumer surveys. 
C)  the Delphi method. 
D)  time series analysis. 
E)  executive opinions. 
A)  sales force opinions. 
B)  consumer surveys. 
C)  the Delphi method. 
D)  time series analysis. 
E)  executive opinions.

Question 20

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

Accepted Answer

A)  mathematical and statistical. 
B)  qualitative and quantitative. 
C)  judgmental and qualitative. 
D)  historical and associative. 
E)  precise and approximation. 
A)  mathematical and statistical. 
B)  qualitative and quantitative. 
C)  judgmental and qualitative. 
D)  historical and associative. 
E)  precise and approximation.

Exam 3: Forecasting

Customer service levels can be improved by better:

A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Nonlinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are nonlinear or involve more than one predictor variable.

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Year Attendance Four Years ago 10,000 Three Years ago 12,000 Two Years ago 18,000 Last Year 20,000

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

Forecasting techniques that are based on time-series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Putting forecast errors into perspective is best done using

An advantage of trend-adjusted exponential smoothing over the linear trend equation is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

The T in the model TAF = S + T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for period 5? Period Value 1 58 2 59 3 60 4 61

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness

Product and Service Design

RELIABILITY – Static

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Decision Theory– Static

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

learning curve– Static

Location Planning and Analysis

The Transportation Model– Static

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Acceptance Sampling– Static

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

JIT and Lean Operations

Maintenance– Static

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

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